May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Very pleasant 68-degree evening in Seattle... hard to beat that.     

 

Same temperature here in Chelan.  

[Deweydog]

If it’s beyond day 10 it probably doesn’t mean much. There has been a lot of cool weather advertised beyond day 10 the last few weeks that keeps getting pushed back.

We've got a cynic!

[Jesse]

We've got a cynic!

We’ve got an obsession!

[El Nina]

If it’s beyond day 10 it probably doesn’t mean much. There has been a lot of cool weather advertised beyond day 10 the last few weeks that keeps getting pushed back.

That could ruin a record warm May.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The upper mountain lakes seem to be doing okay. It's just downstream where it gets really hot that it drops off. The water shouldn't be getting so warm to where the fish are so lethargic they don't go for anything.

Yeah there's a tight line between having the water warm enough that the trout bite like crazy to having it a tad too hot to the point trout just stop biting due to less dissolved oxygen in the water. I need to head up to Trillium lake again this summer. I've caught some lunkers there before.

[Jesse]

That could ruin a record warm May.

Would be nice.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like all the stations around PDX Metro made it to at least 80 today. HIO seems to be the high spot at 81. PDX should make it to the upper 80s tomorrow. I'm going for 90 tomorrow and Monday. Hopefully at least one of the days can crack the 90s.

[Jesse]

Some improvement on the ensembles. Baby steps...

 

[MossMan]

The mother of all blocks.

 

Flash freeze!

[MossMan]

Some improvement on the ensembles. Baby steps...

 

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Flash freeze for the afternoon commute!

[Deweydog]

We’ve got an obsession!

Just let the pattern change wash over you like an airport bathroom hand dryer.

[Jesse]

Just let the pattern change wash over you like an airport bathroom hand dryer.

Ew.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Didn't realize how dead this page was in the spring. Can't wait til November again.

[TT-SEA]

Nice improvements on the 12Z GFS for warm weather fans.

[Jesse]

Nice improvements on the 12Z GFS for warm weather fans.

Turning into an undending nightmare. Reminds me a lot of some of the worse months of the 2014-16 period.

[TT-SEA]

Turning into an undending nightmare. Reminds me a lot of some of the worse months of the 2014-16 period.

Yeah... it is sort of surprising. Even I would not complain about a good rain event once a week. Preferably not on a weekend though.

[Jesse]

Yeah... it is sort of surprising. Even I would not complain about a good rain event once a week. Preferably not on a weekend though.

I always like this time of year for how green everything is. Looks like we are going to blow right through that into early/mid summer conditions, though. Hopefully a wet June will save us.

[TT-SEA]

I always like this time of year for how green everything is. Looks like we are going to blow right through that into early/mid summer conditions, though. Hopefully a wet June will save us.

A wet June seems more likely given how this month is playing out. I expected a warm and dry May after April... but not this warm and dry.

[Jesse]

A wet June seems more likely given how this month is playing out. I expected a warm and dry May after April... but not this warm and dry.

A lot of the record warm and dry Mays that were like this one went straight into hot summers. 1958, 1992, etc...

 

As it stands this will make those Mays look cool. A May warmer than an average June is looking possible down here, which is pretty much unheard of.

[TT-SEA]

I was amazed at the trees at Snoqualmie Pass when we went through yesterday. They were all leafed out despite piles of snow everywhere.

 

Pretty incredible that they can be buried in 10 feet of snow all winter and into spring and still be fully green and leafed out by May 12th.

 

Probably happens every year... but it's an interesting phenomenon nonetheless.

[Deweydog]

Sunny here.

[Deweydog]

Happy Mother's Day to our 2.8 female members!

[Jesse]

I was amazed at the trees at Snoqualmie Pass when we went through yesterday. They were all leafed out despite piles of snow everywhere.

 

Pretty incredible that they can be buried in 10 feet of snow all winter and into spring and still be fully green and leafed out by May 12th.

 

Probably happens every year... but it's an interesting phenomenon nonetheless.

Are you planning on taking the ferry up the lake while in Chelan? Would highly recommend it.

[TT-SEA]

Are you planning on taking the ferry up the lake while in Chelan? Would highly recommend it.

 

Not enough time.   My parents are doing that on Tuesday though.

[Phil]

That 1947 analog is interesting. The US also had a frigid spring that year, and all available evidence points towards a Feb SSW as the culprit (which 2018 also had).

 

 

It was also the peak of the previous global warming cycle, which produced some very warm years throughout the early/middle 1940s, relative to the previous 30yrs. It was also a +PDO/+NAO era, albeit the very end of it.

[Jesse]

If we could start with May 1947 and follow along for the next 11 years I would be pretty happy.

[Jesse]

Such a strange and meandering pattern on the 12z Euro. We are in no mans land, which usually means warm this time of year. There do seem to be hints at a possible change toward the end, though.

[Phil]

Drought monitor. Best structural match is actually 2012.

 

Now:

 

 

2012:

 

[Phil]

Maybe this summer is blowing its load early. Given how torchy this month has been across the country, it seems like it would be hard pressed to continue for months on end.

 

We’ve already had 4 days above 90*F, with more in the pipeline. I don’t know how the stats work in the PNW, but looking back at our warmest Mays, they either lead to blowtorch summers, or troughy summers. Not much middle ground at all.

[Farmboy]

The only thing that seems to be clear at this point after looking at this morning's models is that there will be some sort of shake up in the upper latitudes, like Phil has been saying.  How will that affect our region, though?  GFS seems to want to hold on to a broad western ridge that allows some energy to slip through to our south into California.  Euro shows that energy sliding in a little further to the north, with more in western Alaska possibly poised to enter into the picture if you could extrapolate out past hour 240 to the next frame or two...

[Phil]

BTW Tim, it’s been in the 60s and foggy/misting all day here, and I’m loving every second of it.

 

Soooo much better than 90s with blasting sunshine. Oh, and my neighbor walking his dog agrees. So popular opinion agrees with me too!

[TT-SEA]

BTW Tim, it’s been in the 60s and foggy/misting all day here, and I’m loving every second of it.

 

Soooo much better than 90s with blasting sunshine. Oh, and my neighbor walking his dog agrees. So popular opinion agrees with me too!

Yeah... your choices are always between two crappy extremes.

 

You have the hot extreme all the time so any break is appreciated. We have gloomy weather for a good part of the year so sunny and warm weather is appreciated. Not hard to understand.

[Phil]

Yeah... your choices are always between two crappy extremes.

 

You have the hot extreme all the time so any break is appreciated. We have gloomy weather for a good part of the year so sunny and warm weather is appreciated. Not hard to understand.

But you said you would actually prefer 90s and sunshine to 60s and drizzle, if those were your only options. The question is homogenous.

 

Just saying.

[TT-SEA]

But you said you would actually prefer 90s and sunshine to 60s and drizzle, if those were your only options. The question is homogenous.

 

Just saying.

Good Lord.

 

Yes... during the summer I want to see something totally different than our normal weather. 50s and drizzle is very common here.

 

If it was normally 95 and humid here for 6 months then I would love a drizzly day now and then. I loved a cool and cloudy day at our inland southern California home where it was 100 degrees all summer normally.

[Deweydog]

Oh Phim!

[MossMan]

Hot!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

85 in Monmouth. Widespread mid 80s and some upper 80s throughout the valley. Beautiful day.

[Kayla]

I was amazed at the trees at Snoqualmie Pass when we went through yesterday. They were all leafed out despite piles of snow everywhere.

 

Pretty incredible that they can be buried in 10 feet of snow all winter and into spring and still be fully green and leafed out by May 12th.

 

Probably happens every year... but it's an interesting phenomenon nonetheless.

 

Still not leafed out here yet. Just starting to bud out though.

[Geos]

I was amazed at the trees at Snoqualmie Pass when we went through yesterday. They were all leafed out despite piles of snow everywhere.

 

Pretty incredible that they can be buried in 10 feet of snow all winter and into spring and still be fully green and leafed out by May 12th.

 

Probably happens every year... but it's an interesting phenomenon nonetheless.

 

Straight from winter to summer up there!

 

Up to 82 here. 

[Geos]

Drought monitor. Best structural match is actually 2012.

 

Now:

 

 

 

2012:

 

 

That summer was a son of a gun in the Midwest.