May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Farmboy]

Two wrong models can definitely equal a right solution, by way of eventual compromise. Happens many times, though with major pattern changes one model generally leads the way.

Ok, that's kind of along the lines of what I was thinking, that explains a lot, thankyou. So in this case, which model do you think is leading the way, if any? Are recent model developments indicative that we may NOT really be looking at too much of a major pattern shift?

[TT-SEA]

My wife asked me how Memorial Day was looking, commenting that she hopes the nice weather holds out until then. What should I do?

 

 

Scold her for selfishly thinking of herself and her plans in our rainy climate.

 

Must worry about the trees. 

 

All.  The.   Time.

[TT-SEA]

Sort of like a psychological analog to Darwinism. Fatten up the heat lover psyche until it’s all warm, cozy, and complacent, then go in for the kill.

 

Gonna be lots of psychotic breaks in here when the worm turns.

 

 

Drama!   

 

Troll.  

[Deweydog]

Drama!

 

Troll.

2010 WAS pretty funny...

[TT-SEA]

2010 WAS pretty funny...

I think it's remembered for more than it was on here.

 

The second half of May and the first half of June was the worst of it.

[Geos]

Being less than 5 minutes from work allows me to run home at lunch and enjoy a quiet lovely sunny yard.

 

Nice. I can pretty much do that too being 9 to 10 minutes away but usually don't too often. 

[Geos]

Was at Fort Ebby on Whidbey Island on Saturday afternoon. An absolutely gorgeous place. 

 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the new ECMWF weeklies are on board for a warm Memorial Day weekend.   And maybe even warmer during the first weekend in June.

 

Stays pretty warm until the middle of June per the latest ECMWF weeklies and then it shows some sort of troughing focused on the third week of June... but still depicts the same basic pattern we have now through the end of June (warm PNW and cool CA).

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Ok, that's kind of along the lines of what I was thinking, that explains a lot, thankyou. So in this case, which model do you think is leading the way, if any? Are recent model developments indicative that we may NOT really be looking at too much of a major pattern shift?

 

Pretty weak signal for anything changing significantly before the end of the month.

[TT-SEA]

Again FWIW... the latest CFS run released last night shows a warm June.

 

[Phil]

Again FWIW... the latest CFS run released last night shows a warm June.

 

Considering the CFS has gotten each of last 7 months perfectly backwards, it’s hard not to feel good about a cool June this year.

[TT-SEA]

Considering the CFS has gotten each of last 7 months perfectly backwards, it’s hard not to feel good about a cool June this year.

 

So be it... I said FWIW.

 

ECMWF weeklies show a generally warm June as well.

[Phil]

So be it... I said FWIW.

 

ECMWF weeklies show a generally warm June as well.

So touchy.

[MossMan]

Summer basically started in late April this year. Yet you still cry about a few marine layer days. Want a 90+ degree Mother’s Day AND Memorial Day. Sick of you spoiled babies.

I deeply apologize for enjoying warm sunny weather.

[Jesse]

I deeply apologize for enjoying warm sunny weather.

Apology accepted.

[TT-SEA]

I deeply apologize for enjoying warm sunny weather.

 

Almost like its human nature to want sunshine and warm weather after months and months of rainy, chilly weather... regardless of temperature departures.  

[Front Ranger]

And no one can complain about the weather they don't like ever again.

[High Desert Mat!]

This is what real convection looks like.

 

Looks like a pic out of central Oregon right now. Things are getting really close to exploding. (Cue Matt)

[NorthBurnabyWeather]

The last few days have been pretty humid, but I noticed much cooler breezes this afternoon. What's been going on at the BC/WA surface/mid-levels over the past 12-24 hours that can explain this?

[Jesse]

Now the 18z ensembles are the best yet in the long range.

 

[Jesse]

EPS looked better than the operational Euro as well. Maybe just a hiccup from the Euro, and this pattern change is still on track.

[TT-SEA]

EPS looked better than the operational Euro as well. Maybe just a hiccup from the Euro, and this pattern change is still on track.

 

You were saying this frequently about 10 days ago referring to Mother's Day weekend.

[Jesse]

You were saying this frequently about 10 days ago referring to Mother's Day weekend.

Yup, definitely got burned then. I guess we will see if this time is different.

 

Of course local history would dictate another major heat event or two following one of the warmest and driest first halves of May on record. Happens all the time.

[TT-SEA]

Yup, definitely got burned then. I guess we will see if this time is different.

 

Of course local history would dictate another major heat event or two following one of the warmest and driest first halves of May on record. Happens all the time.

Local history would dictate a drier than normal year at SEA at some point... but that does not seem like it will ever happen again.

[El Nina]

Despite being cloudy until almost 3, it has managed to reach 70°

[NorthBurnabyWeather]

I guess my question is too simple to warrant a response... :/

[El Nina]

I guess my question is too simple to warrant a response... :/

A marine layer has pushed inland from the ocean. Mark Nelsen calls it nature's air conditioning.

[TT-SEA]

I guess my question is too simple to warrant a response... :/

 

Well defined marine push last night.

 

It did not even clear out at all along the coast and well inland.   That cools down all areas west of the mountains.   Tomorrow will be even cooler.

[MossMan]

And no one can complain about the weather they don't like ever again.

Good thing we all like snow (except for one of the Timmy’s)

[TT-SEA]

Good thing we all like snow (except for one of the Timmy’s)

 

Actually I don't think either of the Timmys is too crazy about snow except for the holidays.   Certainly not February or later. 

[Deweydog]

If it's not gonna snow on Memorial Day Weekend it may as well be in the 90's.

[TT-SEA]

If it's not gonna snow on Memorial Day Weekend it may as well be in the 90's.

 

00Z GFS says that will work.

[ShawniganLake]

00Z GFS says that will work.

Would have been a great year to plant the veggie garden early. Unfortunately I’ve been too busy.

 

This coming weekend is our holiday weekend up here. I think we are going to head up to the cariboo for a few days. Weather is looking good, hopefully the fish are biting.

[Deweydog]

00Z GFS says that will work.

It's probably wrong.*

 

*- BUT WHAT IF IT'S RIGHT????!!!!!!!!!???????

[TT-SEA]

Would have been a great year to plant the veggie garden early. Unfortunately I’ve been too busy.

 

This coming weekend is our holiday weekend up here. I think we are going to head up to the cariboo for a few days. Weather is looking good, hopefully the fish are biting.

 

Our garden is doing great... we have everything planted including tomatoes and they are dark green and growing fast and flowering already.   

[TT-SEA]

It's probably wrong.*

 

*- BUT WHAT IF IT'S RIGHT????!!!!!!!!!???????

 

If its right... remind me to cancel our reservations by 5/25.   

[Jesse]

It's probably wrong.*

 

*- BUT WHAT IF IT'S RIGHT????!!!!!!!!!???????

 

GFS is only wrong when it predicts major cool spells in the LR. It is a dead eye when it comes to the warm stuff though.

[Deweydog]

If its right... remind me to cancel our reservations by 5/25.

For where/what?

[Deweydog]

GFS is only wrong when it predicts major cool spells in the LR. It is a dead eye when it comes to the warm stuff though.

Fingers crossed!

 

(You'll have to guess as to what I'm crossing my fingers for!)

[TT-SEA]

For where/what?

 

Memorial day weekend... back-up plan east of the mountains.    It seems that just booking the reservations causes a heat wave.   It happened 3 times last year.   We never did get over there.