July 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Boy, there is a lot going on in the world of the weather.  We have a tanking geomagnetic field, 30mb warming, a solid -AO developing with blocking over the Pole, a wetter Week 1-2 pattern....all of this as we enjoy the last few days of July.

 

The recent trends of the geomagnetic field is starting to fall off a cliff as the sun has gone into a deep sleep.  Comparably speaking, this is the least amount of sun spots since the last solar min in 2009 (through mid year).

 

 

 

Current Stretch: 5 days 
2018 total: 116 days (56%)

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

 

 

30mb warming that has evolved directly over the pole is creating an environment that will produce a blocking HP over the coming days.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

Check out these dramatic changes that will be occurring over the Pole as we open up August.  From a +AO pattern caused by low pressure, to a complete reversal as HP splits the summer vortex into 2 pieces...one into Siberia/Russia and the other into Canada.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Currently, the temp here in NYC is in the upper60s w plentiful sunshine as a beautiful weekend is shaping up. Hopefully, I will have time for some beach activity in the Hamptons this weekend. Some t'stms could be possible later today. Maysbe severe!

 

In other news....Greece still suffering from recent fires that killed lots of poeple and destroyed homes and everthing in its path. Poor people. Just horrible situation there.

[Minny_Weather]

If every morning in the Summer was like this I'd be less cranky. Apparently it got into the 50s before sunrise. 67.6*F.

[Tom]

It got a bit nippy this morning up near the Northwoods...

 

 

 

Cool morning (for July) in the Midwest. Overnight lows:

36° Palisade, MN (Long Lake)
38° Meadowlands, MN
39° Orr, MN
39° Crane Lake, MN
39° Hibbing, MN
49° Burlington, WI
 

 

[westMJim]

Only 0.06″ of rain here over night. So while the airport had reported 2.21" of rain this month here at my house it is just 1.31"  so while I have gotten some needed rain it is still dry on the NW side of Grand Rapids yet.   At this time it is cloudy and a cool 70 here at my house.

[Stacsh]

Pouring lake effect/enhanced rain shower right now.  Weird for July 

[Bryan1117]

If every morning in the Summer was like this I'd be less cranky. Apparently it got into the 50s before sunrise. 67.6*F.

This weather is amazing right now for late July... in the mid 70’s at noon with low humidity, this feels great. It was actually a little chilly this morning with the windows open, it’s great to give the AC a break like this.

[Tom]

This weather is amazing right now for late July... in the mid 70’s at noon with low humidity, this feels great. It was actually a little chilly this morning with the windows open, it’s great to give the AC a break like this.

Same thing over here Bryan! I could get used to this for rest of summer. Enjoy it while you can.

[OKwx2k4]

It got a bit nippy this morning up near the Northwoods...

Idk about up there but 36° is enough to radiate to frost in places here. That's cold!

[OKwx2k4]

The score at my house this summer is drought-2 grass-0 need the forecast rain amounts (GFS) to catch up before autumn.

[OKwx2k4]

This could probably go under an "August Discussion" but, from a met named Larry Cosgrove....

 

 

"...Be forewarned that after August 3 the "super heat ridge" will be returning to much of the U.S. The fire hazards may lessen in northern California as the flow at surface takes on a more Pacific Ocean bent. But other locales such as S CA, TX and indeed the entire eastern third of the U.S. will be deep friend, especially in the 11 - 15 day period..."

 

So who wins? GFS -AO, -NAO (upcoming) scenario that says likely cool in the central and Midwest/lakes? or the "super heat ridge"? Who knows? I do see a window for a long term northern hemisphere blocking episode down the road (if the strat can glow warm a bit one more time really soon)and if things work just right, we may only see a brief warm up in August before diving right back into the negative anomalies for the last 2 weeks of summer and the beginning of met autumn. My 2¢ worth going forward. The heads up for severe wx starting soon is a large deviation from almost every year I remember out of the past 5-6 as well.

[james1976]

This could probably go under an "August Discussion" but, from a met named Larry Cosgrove....

 

 

"...Be forewarned that after August 3 the "super heat ridge" will be returning to much of the U.S. The fire hazards may lessen in northern California as the flow at surface takes on a more Pacific Ocean bent. But other locales such as S CA, TX and indeed the entire eastern third of the U.S. will be deep friend, especially in the 11 - 15 day period..."

 

So who wins? GFS -AO, -NAO (upcoming) scenario that says likely cool in the central and Midwest/lakes? or the "super heat ridge"? Who knows? I do see a window for a long term northern hemisphere blocking episode down the road (if the strat can glow warm a bit one more time really soon)and if things work just right, we may only see a brief warm up in August before diving right back into the negative anomalies for the last 2 weeks of summer and the beginning of met autumn. My 2¢ worth going forward. The heads up for severe wx starting soon is a large deviation from almost every year I remember out of the past 5-6 as well.

Local met upper 80s here by next Friday. Not digging that.

[james1976]

It is literally perfect out here this evening. My word

[OKwx2k4]

Local met upper 80s here by next Friday. Not digging that.

We'll have to see if we make it to that point. Been in "hot mode" for 10-13 weeks. Seeing a lot if hints at breaking that trend.

[CentralNebWeather]

Pouring rain again this evening. What a tremendous summer rain wise. Things are as green as I have ever seen them at the end of July. Temps in the 60’s with a north wind on this late September I mean July night.

[OKwx2k4]

It'd be hard to make a more beautiful July night. The moon is stunning. The air is dry and clear. Can't beat it.

[Minny_Weather]

Just had a nice line of storms come through. Quite a few close lightning strikes and the lights flickered a couple times. 64.8*F.

[Tom]

The last few mornings have been just perfect and today is another winner: 61F/53F  The cool and crispness to the air is preparing my mindset that Autumn is not to far away.  Still a number of locations showing mid 40's across WI/MN early this morning.  Should have another 5-6 days of this stuff till it warms up a bit and turns more active.

[Minny_Weather]

It is an absolutely beautiful morning. The grass is green thanks to our lucky rain last night. If only all Summer mornings were like this. Feels more like May than July. 64.8*F.

[Bryan1117]

Comfortable 65 degrees at 10am on a damp and cloudy Saturday morning here in Omaha.

 

The overnight and morning rain and thunderstorms dropped a much needed inch of rain here... with additional rain and storms possible later today and tonight. Absolutely loving this late July weather pattern, can’t get enough of it.

[Minny_Weather]

Perfectly sunny here. Bleh. At least temps are cool. 71.8°F.

[Bryan1117]

Perfectly sunny here. Bleh. At least temps are cool. 71.8°F.

Pouring down rain again here in Omaha currently with temps holding in the mid 60's... more rain showers and some isolated thundershowers appear to be re-developing across the rest of Eastern Nebraska... going to be a damp and cool July day here. 

[Tom]

Glad to hear the positive vibes from our NE peeps!  That goes to everyone else who's enjoying this splendid late July weather.  It always amazes me how much the weather impacts our lives.  Whether it be your mood or business, it directly impacts us and I find that intriguing. 

[Minny_Weather]

Forecasted high today was 74*F. It's 73.6*F in Southeast Lincoln right now, somehow 3-4 degrees cooler than the airport. Nobody was expecting it to be sunny today, it was supposed to be overcast. I wanted it to be overcast.

[jaster220]

Glad to hear the positive vibes from our NE peeps!  That goes to everyone else who's enjoying this splendid late July weather.  It always amazes me how much the weather impacts our lives.  Whether it be your mood or business, it directly impacts us and I find that intriguing. 

 

I had a fam reunion in Ludington on the 16th and it was a great beach day with 80F and the Lake Mich water running in the low 70's which is nice for "up north" and makes for a refreshing swim. Even had some decent waves by July standards with the CF having just come thru. Two mornings later it was a chilly mid-40's even near the big lake.

 

This is the city park/beach just a short walk from our resort

 

 

I hiked out to the lighthouse for the first time in about 3 decades (flag pole is new thing. If flag is flying means the museum inside is open) Random larger waves were happening and one drenched me from behind, lol. The lighthouse itself is 57' above the water and inside the museum they have a (b&w) photo during the Fitzgerald Storm of Nov '75 with waves splashing over the top in a furious gale. My older sister and hubby had moved there the previous spring so they saw it firsthand. 

 

 

Had fam from Cali and SD come in on the evening ferry as well. I wanna take that across some time. Only did it once with my folks back in '77 

 

 

A few of us also did a remote dune climb near the state park where you can see Lake Michigan to your west, and a popular large inland lake to your east

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12:45 on a Saturday afternoon, overcast with a temp of 70 degrees with a dew of 65 makes the air a little sticky but a breeze helps out. More thunderstorms tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night. Local airport has us very close to our yearly precipitation of 25” total after last night’s rainfall. Amazing as it is only July 28. To look around the area it appears to be mid May but with very tall corn and beautifully thick soybeans plants.

[Tom]

I had a fam reunion in Ludington on the 16th and it was a great beach day with 80F and the Lake Mich water running in the low 70's which is nice for "up north" and makes for a refreshing swim. Even had some decent waves by July standards with the CF having just come thru. Two mornings later it was a chilly mid-40's even near the big lake.

 

This is the city park/beach just a short walk from our resort

 

DSC00099.JPG

DSC00095.JPG

 

I hiked out to the lighthouse for the first time in about 3 decades (flag pole is new thing. If flag is flying means the museum inside is open) Random larger waves were happening and one drenched me from behind, lol. The lighthouse itself is 57' above the water and inside the museum they have a (b&w) photo during the Fitzgerald Storm of Nov '75 with waves splashing over the top in a furious gale. My older sister and hubby had moved there the previous spring so they saw it firsthand.

 

DSC00103.JPG

Had fam from Cali and SD come in on the evening ferry as well. I wanna take that across some time. Only did it once with my folks back in '77

DSC00089.JPG

A few of us also did a remote dune climb near the state park where you can see Lake Michigan to your west, and a popular large inland lake to your east

 

DSC00111.JPG

DSC00112.JPG

Nice pics! Looks like a great time up there. I need to head out to #puremichigan this year. I always hear how beautiful it is and it’s not that far! Enjoy the next few days of phenomenal weather buddy!

[OKwx2k4]

I had a fam reunion in Ludington on the 16th and it was a great beach day with 80F and the Lake Mich water running in the low 70's which is nice for "up north" and makes for a refreshing swim. Even had some decent waves by July standards with the CF having just come thru. Two mornings later it was a chilly mid-40's even near the big lake.

 

This is the city park/beach just a short walk from our resort

 

DSC00099.JPG

DSC00095.JPG

 

I hiked out to the lighthouse for the first time in about 3 decades (flag pole is new thing. If flag is flying means the museum inside is open) Random larger waves were happening and one drenched me from behind, lol. The lighthouse itself is 57' above the water and inside the museum they have a (b&w) photo during the Fitzgerald Storm of Nov '75 with waves splashing over the top in a furious gale. My older sister and hubby had moved there the previous spring so they saw it firsthand.

 

DSC00103.JPG

Had fam from Cali and SD come in on the evening ferry as well. I wanna take that across some time. Only did it once with my folks back in '77

DSC00089.JPG

A few of us also did a remote dune climb near the state park where you can see Lake Michigan to your west, and a popular large inland lake to your east

 

DSC00111.JPG

DSC00112.JPG

Wow!! It's beautiful up there!! Thank you for sharing those.

[OKwx2k4]

Really need some rain now. You all can see how that's working out for me. Getting really really dry in a heavy early vegetation season is bad news.

 

[Tom]

Really need some rain now. You all can see how that's working out for me. Getting really really dry in a heavy early vegetation season is bad news.

 

Screenshot_20180728-144850_RadarScope.jpg

Here comes your rain buddy!

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/INX/N0Q/INX.N0Q.20180729.0950.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Here comes your rain buddy!

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/INX/N0Q/INX.N0Q.20180729.0950.gif

Yeah! I'd say so!

[Minny_Weather]

Had a nice, steady moderate rain last night for a couple hours. This morning is very nice. It'll be a shame when the heat comes back in a couple days. 63.1*F.

[Hawkeye]

The last couple days haven't been as pleasant as they could have been because there is just no breeze at all.  It's dead calm again today, plus the dew is up into the 60s.

[james1976]

Yeah we slowly start climbing back up throughout the upcoming week.

[gabel23]

I had a fam reunion in Ludington on the 16th and it was a great beach day with 80F and the Lake Mich water running in the low 70's which is nice for "up north" and makes for a refreshing swim. Even had some decent waves by July standards with the CF having just come thru. Two mornings later it was a chilly mid-40's even near the big lake.

 

This is the city park/beach just a short walk from our resort

 

DSC00099.JPG

DSC00095.JPG

 

I hiked out to the lighthouse for the first time in about 3 decades (flag pole is new thing. If flag is flying means the museum inside is open) Random larger waves were happening and one drenched me from behind, lol. The lighthouse itself is 57' above the water and inside the museum they have a (b&w) photo during the Fitzgerald Storm of Nov '75 with waves splashing over the top in a furious gale. My older sister and hubby had moved there the previous spring so they saw it firsthand.

 

DSC00103.JPG

Had fam from Cali and SD come in on the evening ferry as well. I wanna take that across some time. Only did it once with my folks back in '77

DSC00089.JPG

A few of us also did a remote dune climb near the state park where you can see Lake Michigan to your west, and a popular large inland lake to your east

 

DSC00111.JPG

DSC00112.JPG

Those are some gorgeous views you have in your area; I would imagine the golf courses out there are amazing!

[jaster220]

Nice pics! Looks like a great time up there. I need to head out to #puremichigan this year. I always hear how beautiful it is and it’s not that far! Enjoy the next few days of phenomenal weather buddy!

 

Any closer, and it'd be called Wiscogan, lol. Get yerself to the MItt buddy and enjoy it when you do 

 

Wow!! It's beautiful up there!! Thank you for sharing those.

 

I normally only do my camera for winter, so I'm glad I had these to share tbh

 

Those are some gorgeous views you have in your area; I would imagine the golf courses out there are amazing!

 

There are a bunch of stellar courses, especially along the Gold Coast portion of NWMI. I don't get out as often as I'd like unfortunately

[OKwx2k4]

Some cool, dry air will be a beautiful close to July.

 

Seems like it's been a lengthy summer since May 5 for a lot of us with exception to maybe our far northern friends. This will seem like a refreshing reward for some of us.

[jaster220]

Finally! Marshall scores on one of these rogue pop-up convective cells. Glad I peeked at radar about 5:30 and hustled out to mow my lawn. Was planning to wait til almost dark when it's coolest. With only a 20% chance pops this was truly a welcomed surprise hit

 

           

[westMJim]

Finally! Marshall scores on one of these rogue pop-up convective cells. Glad I peeked at radar about 5:30 and hustled out to mow my lawn. Was planning to wait til almost dark when it's coolest. With only a 20% chance pops this was truly a welcomed surprise hit

 

20180729 gridcast.PNG           20180729 7pm radar.PNG

Had heavy showers close by, heck I could even see the rain falling from one to my NE but here at my house no a drop. 

[Madtown]

Full moon, and some scattered storms had the big girls eating this weekend up north.