September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Oh and Matt, lil help?

[TT-SEA]

Extra trips to the desert are especially necessary at times like these.

 

 

We are spending a week in November in Palm Springs and Newport Beach.   

 

The trip this past weekend was happening regardless of the weather here.

[TT-SEA]

Of course, the wet anomalies have been almost entirely focused on the cold season. When it is already wet anyway and you are either miserable or obsessively posting here from a subtropical location regardless

 

Couldn’t reasonably ask for a longer multi-year stretch of warm and dry summers in this climate, though.

 

These facts have been pointed out dozens of times.

 

 

Not the point Jesse.

 

Justin was lamenting that 2018 was actually drier than normal with drier than normal months.   Looking at this decade...  its makes perfect sense that 2018 would be drier than normal.    It does happen.    In fact... it should happen in 50% of the years and it has not happened since 2013.  

 

That is all.   Simple statistics.   Not surprising that 2018 is drier than normal down there.   Wish we could get one of those drier than normal years out here.   It will happen eventually! 

[TT-SEA]

Oh and Matt, lil help?

 

 

For statistical help? 

 

6 wet years... 1 dry year... 1 normal year.

 

You are shocked that this year is dry?    

[Jesse]

That is all. Simple statistics. Not surprising that 2018 is drier than normal down there. Wish we could get one of those drier than normal years out here. It will happen eventually!

This is a good illustration of a Mark Twain quote I like; “There are three kinds of lies: lies, D**n lies, and statistics.”

[TT-SEA]

This is a good illustration of a Mark Twain quote I like; “There are three kinds of lies: lies, d**n lies, and statistics.”

 

 

December and January have actually been the most reliably dry months in the last 5 years at SEA.     

 

Here is the chart I created for 2014-17 for SEA:

 

[Jesse]

December and January have actually been the most reliably dry months in the last 5 years at SEA. I need to find that chart I created of rainfall departures by month.

Cold season is like October-April though right?

[TT-SEA]

Cold season is like October-April though right?

 

 

At SEA... the warm season months of April, May, June, July, and August were all evenly split between wet and dry in the 2014-17 period.   

 

September was the only warm season month that was tilted to dry.   But then every single October was wet in the last 4 years.      

[Jesse]

At SEA... the warm season months of April, May, June, July, and August were all evenly split between wet and dry in the 2014-17 period.   

 

September was the only warm season month that was tilted to dry.   But then every single October was wet in the last 4 years.      

 

April can hardly be considered a warm season month around here. Its average temp is somewhere between October and November.

 

Also, I thought SEA wasn't even representative of your location. Why are you suddenly using it. Weren't we originally talking about dry months at PDX anyway. Can't keep track.

[TT-SEA]

The above chart paints a clear picture for SEA...

 

The really wet months have been at the beginning and end of the rainy season (Feb, Mar, Oct).  

 

The middle of the rainy season (heart of winter) has actually been fairly dry overall.  

 

The warm season has been about normal overall... even split between wet and dry months. 

[TT-SEA]

April can hardly be considered a warm season month around here. Its average temp is somewhere between October and November.

 

Also, I thought SEA wasn't even representative of your location. Why are you suddenly using it. Weren't we originally talking about dry months at PDX anyway. Can't keep track.

 

 

You said that.    I don't care what you call April.   

 

Then change it - the warm season months of May, June, July, and August have been evenly split between wet and dry months at SEA.  

 

Your narrative that winter has been so wet and summers have been totally dry does not work up here.   

 

Mid-winter has been the driest... the beginning and end of the rainy season has been wettest... the warm season months have been evenly split.

[Jesse]

You said that.    I don't care what you call it.    

 

Then change it - the warm season months of May, June, July, and August have been evenly split between wet and dry months at SEA.  

 

Your narrative that winter has been so wet and summers have been totally dry does not work up here.   

 

Mid-winter has been the driest... the beginning and end of the rainy season has been wettest... the warm season months have been evenly split.

 

Still don't get why we are talking about SEA now when it has been so different up there than down here, and so different at your house than there. Wasn't your original shitpost in response to Justin posting a stat about PDX?

[Blizzard777]

Light rain falling

[TT-SEA]

I can't remember the last time that SEA was wetter than normal while it was drier than normal here.   Usually the anomalies are about the same as here. 

 

But this year has proven that SEA can definitely be drier than normal while its still wetter than normal out here.   And for many months.   

[Jesse]

I can't remember the last time that SEA was wetter than normal while it was drier than normal here. Usually the anomalies are about the same as here.

 

But this year has proven that SEA can definitely be drier than normal while its still wetter than normal out here. And for many months.

We were talking about PDX though.

[TT-SEA]

Still don't get why we are talking about SEA now when it has been so different up there than down here, and so different at your house than there. Wasn't your original shitpost in response to Justin posting a stat about PDX?

 

 

It was.   You made it personal and referenced my own experience with the weather over the last 4 years.  

 

It has not been as you described up here.   All the wet months have not been in the winter and all the dry months have not been in the warm season.     

[Jesse]

It was. You made it personal and referenced my own experience with the weather over the last 4 years.

 

It has not been as you described up here. All the wet months have not been in the winter and all the dry months have not been in the warm season.

Yup. Different world up there.

 

Saying native PNWers get pretty anxious when we are not constantly running above normal for rain, in response to a post about a stat from our separate climate zone, seemed to be making things unnecessarily personal.

[MossMan]

I mowed my very green grass this evening.

Clouded up as I mowed.

60 currently.

[TT-SEA]

Yup. Different world up there.

 

Saying native PNWers get pretty anxious when we are not constantly running above normal for rain, in response to a post about a stat from our separate climate zone, seems to be making things unnecessarily personal.

 

I used PDX to show that those anxious people down there should not have been surprised by a dry year in the Portland area based on Portland data.    It makes statistical sense assuming your annual rainfall has not permanently changed.

 

I wonder what you will be saying when we have a colder than normal year?    I am sure you will be pointing out that we were WAY overdue for several colder than normal years.   And using statistical data to prove how overdue we have been for a colder than normal year.   And you will be absolutely right.

[James Jones]

You said that.    I don't care what you call April.   

 

Then change it - the warm season months of May, June, July, and August have been evenly split between wet and dry months at SEA.  

 

Your narrative that winter has been so wet and summers have been totally dry does not work up here.   

 

Mid-winter has been the driest... the beginning and end of the rainy season has been wettest... the warm season months have been evenly split.

 

2014 - 2018 averages and departure from 1981 - 2010 averages at SEA:

 

May: 1.42" (-.52")

June: 0.97" (-.60")

July: 0.33" (-.37")

Aug: 1.10" (+.32")

Sep: 1.18" (-.32")  (Didn't include 2018)

 

Seems like things have skewed dry during the warm season. 

 

Jan: 5.43" (-.14")

Feb: 5.67" (+2.17")

Mar: 5.84" (+2.12")

Apr: 3.46" (+.75")

Oct: 6.60" (+3.12")

Nov: 7.08" (+.51")

Dec: 6.33" (+.98")

 

Seems like things have skewed wet during the wet season.

[Jesse]

I used PDX to show that those anxious people down there should not have been surprised by a dry year in the Portland area based on Portland data.    It makes statistical sense assuming your annual rainfall has not permanently changed.

 

I wonder what you will be saying when we have a colder than normal year?    I am sure you will be pointing out that we were WAY overdue for several colder than normal years.   And using statistical data to prove how overdue we have been for a colder than normal year.   And you will be absolutely right.

 

Difference being the warmth has been pretty evenly distributed in every season.

[BLI snowman]

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa0482

 

Battle Ground has not managed a single legitimate wetter than average MJJAS month since August 2015. Best proxy for my area.

[TT-SEA]

2014 - 2018 averages and departure from 1981 - 2010 averages at SEA:

 

May: 1.42" (-.52")

June: 0.97" (-.60")

July: 0.33" (-.37")

Aug: 1.10" (+.32")

Sep: 1.18" (-.32") (Didn't include 2018)

 

Seems like things have skewed dry during the warm season.

 

Jan: 5.43" (-.14")

Feb: 5.67" (+2.17")

Mar: 5.84" (+2.12")

Apr: 3.46" (+.75")

Oct: 6.60" (+3.12")

Nov: 7.08" (+.51")

Dec: 6.33" (+.98")

 

Seems like things have skewed wet during the wet season.

 

You sort of just proved my point.

 

The middle of winter (Dec and Jan) has actually not been that wet up here... the beginning and end of the rainy season has been the wettest (Feb, Mar, Oct).

 

I had not calculated 2018... but the warm season was pretty close to average and evenly split between wet and dry months in the 2014-17 period.

[TT-SEA]

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa0482

 

Battle Ground has not managed a single legitimate wetter than average MJJAS month since August 2015. Best proxy for my area.

 

 

Here is the PDX chart for 2014-17:

 

[BLI snowman]

Here is the PDX chart for 2014-17:

 

 

Overwhelmingly dry in the warm months. Kind of obvious. 

[TT-SEA]

Overwhelmingly dry in the warm months. Kind of obvious.

I never said otherwise.

 

Different world down there.

[BLI snowman]

I never said otherwise.

 

Different world down there.

 

Although I did show July 2017 as red when it was a 0.00 departure. Make that blue with .01 more and it changes the visual a little.

 

You also didn't show 2018 which is going to be 5/5 for drier than average warm season months here.

 

Battle Ground had a +0.01" surplus in May 2017 and a +0.02" surplus in June 2016.

 

Since July 2014, a remarkable 19/22 warm season months have been drier than average here. And that's including the two aforementioned "wet" months.

[James Jones]

I wonder what the number of dry days compared to average at SEA in the horribly wet 2014 to present period looks like...

[TT-SEA]

You also didn't show 2018 which is going to be 5/5 for drier than average warm season months here.

 

Battle Ground had a +0.01" surplus in May 2017 and a +0.02" surplus in June 2016.

 

Since July 2014, a remarkable 19/22 warm season months have been drier than average here. And that's including the two aforementioned "wet" months.

 

I deleted that part about July... its been awhile since I looked at this chart.   It was created early this year.   I thought I was showing departures... but I show total rain by month and color-coded each cell red or blue depending on the direction of the departure.

[BLI snowman]

Whatcom County, which is very "up here" compared to Tim's southern climate, exhibits the same phenomenon.

 

Clearbrook has seen a stretch of 17/19 drier than average warm season months beginning with May 2015. Unlike here there's a decent chance they could still finish above average this month with the upcoming storm, but the trend is pretty decisive.

[TT-SEA]

I wonder what the number of dry days compared to average at SEA in the horribly wet 2014 to present period looks like...

 

I am guessing more days with rain than normal in the 2014-17 period. That would be more tedious to calculate.

 

I know we did set the record for the most days with rain ever for a rainy season in 2015-16.

 

And it really won't matter much in that calculation if we have 3 days with rain in July or just 1.

[TT-SEA]

Whatcom County, which is very "up here" compared to Tim's southern climate, exhibits the same phenomenon.

 

Clearbrook has seen a stretch of 17/19 drier than average warm season months beginning with May 2015. Unlike here there's a decent chance they could still finish above average this month with the upcoming storm, but the trend is pretty decisive.

 

 

You are changing the years by dropping 2014 and adding 2018.  This year definitely leans it more towards dry in the warm season up here as well.

 

Hopefully this trend is moving north with a warming climate!    

[James Jones]

I am guessing more days with rain than normal in the 2014-17 period.     That would be more tedious to calculate.

 

I know we did set the record for the most days with rain ever for a rainy season in 2015-16.     

 

And if really won't matter much in that calculation if we have 3 days with rain in July or just 1.   

 

The NWS has a tool that makes it a lot easier.

 

SEA number of days with precip 2014 to present compared to the period of record average:

 

Jan: 16.6 (19)

Feb: 19.6 (16)

Mar: 18.8 (17)

Apr: 14.8 (14)

May: 7.4 (11)

June: 7.2 (9)

July: 2.4 (5)

Aug: 4.4 (6)

Sep: 9.0 (9)

Oct: 17.5 (14)

Nov: 20.5 (18)

Dec: 19.0 (19)

 

Annual: 157 in 2014 to 2017 compared to 156 in the period of record, and 2018 so far has had 5 more dry days than the period of record average. That single extra day in the cold season really made this stretch awful though.

[ShawniganLake]

We are spending a week in November in Palm Springs and Newport Beach.

 

The trip this past weekend was happening regardless of the weather here.

Your yearly vacation budget is impressive.

[TT-SEA]

Your yearly vacation budget is impressive.

 

 

My wife has a seminar down there in November... we are just extending it.  

[Jesse]

The NWS has a tool that makes it a lot easier.

 

SEA number of days with precip 2014 to present compared to the period of record average:

 

Jan: 16.6 (19)

Feb: 19.6 (16)

Mar: 18.8 (17)

Apr: 14.8 (14)

May: 7.4 (11)

June: 7.2 (9)

July: 2.4 (5)

Aug: 4.4 (6)

Sep: 9.0 (9)

Oct: 17.5 (14)

Nov: 20.5 (18)

Dec: 19.0 (19)

 

Annual: 157 in 2014 to 2017 compared to 156 in the period of record. That single extra day in the cold season really made this stretch awful though.

Good find. Puts the hyperbole in perspective.

 

Now comes the part where the narrative switches to SEA is totally unrepresentative of his location.

[James Jones]

Good find. Puts the hyperbole in perspective.

 

Now comes the part where the narrative switches to SEA is totally unrepresentative of his location.

 

You really couldn't have drawn the script up any better for Tim. The last several years have seen an unprecedented amount of sun and warmth since European settlement, and the annual budget of rainy days has shifted even more towards the cold season and away from the warm season, but the days where it did rain saw slightly heavier precip than usual so he has ammo for his complaining anyway. Amazing.

[TT-SEA]

The NWS has a tool that makes it a lot easier.

 

SEA number of days with precip 2014 to present compared to the period of record average:

 

Jan: 16.6 (19)

Feb: 19.6 (16)

Mar: 18.8 (17)

Apr: 14.8 (14)

May: 7.4 (11)

June: 7.2 (9)

July: 2.4 (5)

Aug: 4.4 (6)

Sep: 9.0 (9)

Oct: 17.5 (14)

Nov: 20.5 (18)

Dec: 19.0 (19)

 

Annual: 157 in 2014 to 2017 compared to 156 in the period of record. That single extra day in the cold season really made this stretch awful though.

 

 

When did I say it was "awful"?    

 

Saying you should have expected a dry year in the books for 2018 because 2014-17 was wetter than normal is just stats.    It should not be a surprise that annual rainfall total for 2018 at PDX would end up below average given what has happened this decade.    And 2014-17 was the wettest 4-year period ever in Seattle.   I expect a couple drier than normal years in Seattle  because that is how it works... unless our annual average has jumped up and that is certainly possible.

 

Summers have been pretty nice... so has December and January in the heart of winter.    And we travel all the time in February and March and those have been some of the really wet months in recent years.   

[BLI snowman]

You are changing the years by dropping 2014 and adding 2018.  This year definitely leans it more towards dry in the warm season up here as well.

 

Hopefully this trend is moving north with a warming climate!    

 

The fact that this year is so decisively pushing the trend along is why it's becoming a frequent topic of discussion. I don't think any of us were lamenting the recent dry warm seasons in 2014, because it wasn't a thing yet.

[TT-SEA]

Good find. Puts the hyperbole in perspective.

 

Now comes the part where the narrative switches to SEA is totally unrepresentative of his location.

 

 

 

I have never said the last 4 years were all terrible.    Just wetter than normal.   That is true.   And that is usually just to offer a little perspective on all of the 'world is ending' drought talk.  

 

Some periods really were bad... but many periods in there were really nice (and not just in the summer).