El_Nina Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Wow! Someone who lamented the oppressive nature of our April weather with dewpoints in the mid-40s is now considering a move to Florida. I could really enjoy the weather in Florida as well... but I am not too keen on endless swamps and a complete lack of mountains (or even hills). I could probably handle living right on the beach there.The towering thunderheads act as the mountains. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 I've been able to acclimate to the humidity and I love how the weather is like clockwork. It rains at basically the same time every day. The lightning is my favorite part though, it's a guarantee every day. I could live here, I'm gonna consider a move.Good luck, my friend. Personally, I could never live there because there’s no winter (not to mention the hurricane threats). Palm trees and Christmas lights just don’t go well together, IMO. The thunderstorm season might be several months shorter here, but it’s a worthwhile trade-off. Basically the same weather as Florida during July/August with daily convection, but much different from October onwards. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 That's some really cold air north of the border! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 GFS ensembles look wet for next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Models are wildly different after day 7.Don't worry, they'll all keep the areas which have received .4" since mid-June drier once we get inside of 8 days. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Just did a Zillow search on beach properties in Florida... crazy expensive! I would never want to live inland in Florida. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Models are wildly different after day 7. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 D**n, son. Look at that eye! https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1044291008987615235?s=20 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 GFS ensembles look wet for next week. Does not look real wet on the WB maps. The GFS ensemble mean is definitely more ridgy as the week goes on... and the mean precipitation anomaly shows it being drier than normal for us. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 D**n, son. Look at that eye! https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1044291008987615235?s=20 Insane! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Just did a Zillow search on beach properties in Florida... crazy expensive! I would never want to live inland in Florida. You can get pretty cheap beach property (or very close to the beach) up on the panhandle. I'd never want to live in Florida though, either. Love the seasons and mountains too much. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Just did a Zillow search on beach properties in Florida... crazy expensive! I would never want to live inland in Florida. Just did a Zillow search on beach properties in Florida... crazy expensive! I would never want to live inland in Florida. I know my parents used to own a house in Vero Beach. Was a few blocks from the beach, I know it wasn't expensive, but they sold it in the early 1990s, so who knows how much it is worth now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Does not look real wet on the WB maps. The GFS ensemble mean is definitely more ridgy as the week goes on... and the mean precipitation anomaly shows it being drier than normal for us. Lovely..looks like more of the same. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 I know my parents used to own a house in Vero Beach. Was a few blocks from the beach, I know it wasn't expensive, but they sold it in the early 1990s, so who knows how much it is worth now. Here is an example in Vero Beach... 3.9 million for a lot with no house! https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Vero-Beach-FL/pmf,pf_pt/99694421_zpid/7680_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/27.665922,-80.351912,27.654082,-80.370365_rect/15_zm/ And then $764,000 for this small house away from the water... https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Vero-Beach-FL/pmf,pf_pt/45272858_zpid/7680_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/27.665922,-80.351912,27.654082,-80.370365_rect/15_zm/ Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 That SE-ridge/Bermuda High and Baffin Island vortex has been so stubborn. Like a re-run of last year.This is going to screw with the pnw all winter. Enjoy! Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 You can get pretty cheap beach property (or very close to the beach) up on the panhandle. I'd never want to live in Florida though, either. Love the seasons and mountains too much.Ugh..the Gulf side is the worst. At least there’s a breeze on the Atlantic side (sometimes). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 At this point I'm not going to put much stock in anything this late fall/winter until it gets inside 4-5 days. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Does not look real wet on the WB maps. The GFS ensemble mean is definitely more ridgy as the week goes on... and the mean precipitation anomaly shows it being drier than normal for us. Man, you are on a different level this year. Especially for this early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 This is going to screw with the pnw all winter. Enjoy!Why do you say that? I don’t think the pattern now is representative of the coming winter pattern at all. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Man, you are on a different level this year. Especially for this early. Different level by showing what the maps show? I am not making up the data. I posted some very wet maps recently. Because that is what the models showed. Same old Jesse... attack the messenger. Response will be... "with you it goes much further" Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Here is an example in Vero Beach... 3.9 million for a lot with no house! https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Vero-Beach-FL/pmf,pf_pt/99694421_zpid/7680_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/27.665922,-80.351912,27.654082,-80.370365_rect/15_zm/ And then $764,000 for this small house away from the water... https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Vero-Beach-FL/pmf,pf_pt/45272858_zpid/7680_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/27.665922,-80.351912,27.654082,-80.370365_rect/15_zm/ Wow, I won't tell my Dad. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 D**n, son. Look at that eye! https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1044291008987615235?s=20Holy moly! Taiwan is going to be lucky that it re-curves before hitting them but it looks like the Okinawa Islands and Japan will get hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Holy moly! Taiwan is going to be lucky that it re-curves before hitting them but it looks like the Okinawa Islands and Japan will get hit. Can you imagine the news coverage if that beast was approaching the coast of the US?! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 For Tim. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/09/24/one-dc-cloudiest-rainiest-septembers-keeps-getting-worse/?utm_term=.60910829f0ab Yet this month, Washington is not only outranking Seattle in rainfall but also in the number of gloomy, overcast days. In September, Washington has seen 13 cloudy days while Seattle has notched six. While it’s a somewhat low bar to surpass the rainfall in Seattle and London, Washington has also managed to outdo tropical locations to the south that usually experience heavier downpours and higher annual rainfalls. For example, it has logged substantially more rainfall than even New Orleans, Charleston and Houston. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 12Z ECMWF turns ridgy next week. A little more rain the previous runs for Vancouver Island and WA though on Sunday and Monday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 That little ULL is sure messing with the models. Euro is cooler in the mid range (Sun-Tue), but warm in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 That little ULL is sure messing with the models. Euro is cooler in the mid range (Sun-Tue), but warm in the long range.Shows around .10 to .20 total over the next 10 days down there. Not exactly wet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Shows around .10 to .20 total over the next 10 days down there. Not exactly wet.Didn’t say it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Didn’t say it was.Just referring to your interpreration of the GFS ensembles. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 I’d really like to see the solar wind/AP index drop next month. September will likely finish between 7.8 - 8.2 thanks to the mid-month activity, which is relatively high, but the solar surface has really settled down now, with no large coronal holes or magnetic instabilities evident as of today. Elevated geomagnetic activity during solar minimum tends to precede stronger subsequent solar cycles, so hopefully things quiet way down over the next 6 months. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Just referring to your interpreration of the GFS ensembles.Sorry if it bothered you. Its probably going to rain again eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Sorry if it bothered you. Its probably going to rain again eventually.Yeah... that is what we were talking about! ECMWF actually shows some decent rain up here early next week while not so much down there. As usual. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Total precip per the 12Z ECMWF... Portland is in no-man's land. Although this is pretty sparse even for my area. Certainly not wet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 [/quot] Time to pull out the weather rock during tricky scenarios such as this 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Makes sense. Do you think the ridgy pattern being advertised (thanks to a particular position of the ULL) is a mirage. Or does a western Rex block pattern like that have support?I think the Rex block pattern is plausible, but the wavenumber is becoming more uncertain. A month from now, a forcing structure like this would likely produce a western ridge/eastern trough pattern. But right now it’s much more murky...the equinox was just a few days ago. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Meteoric temp rise underway at PDX. Heading for mid 80s today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Meteoric temp rise underway at PDX. Heading for mid 80s today. Not sure why Tim was posting the Euro output the other day (only showing mid/upper 70s this week for PDX). It's been shown to run too cool in the warm season. That being said, they probably top out around 82 today. Only a couple hours of warming left. Don't see the same late afternoon spikes this late in the season that you'd see a month or two ago. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2018 Report Share Posted September 25, 2018 Not sure why Tim was posting the Euro output the other day (only showing mid/upper 70s this week for PDX). It's been shown to run too cool in the warm season. I always say it runs too cool... particularly around the Puget Sound region. I did say that I was sending prayers for Jesse! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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