Jesse Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Taking advantage of this nice weather to catch some fish on my lunch break! You look vaguely like Mark Nelsen here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 But does it stick around for a week afterwards? We have a hard time maintaining snowcover with temps in the single digits, let alone 35*F. Troll. That November snow was completely gone the next day. And mostly gone the day that I took the picture. You are probably referring to the April 1st event here... which (for the millionth time) was actually 5 or 6 inches of graupel. And that did make it through the next day and finally was gone the following day. I took pictures at numerous stages of the melt to show what was happening. A thick layer of packed ice and graupel has more staying power than soft snow. It just does... even if you don't believe it. Also dewpoint has a huge effect on the melting process. 40 degrees with a dewpoint of 20 can keep snow around in the shaded areas for days. We saw that in January of 2014. But yet snow melts in no time at 35 degrees with a dewpoint of 35 with a little wind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 The 12z EPS is insistent on keeping the ridge over us through day 10. C2DC8D7B-962C-47C4-A2F2-0672680DD6FE.jpeg Actually the 12Z EPS keeps the ridge solidly over us through day 15. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 https://www.weather.gov/media/pdt/Sep2018.pdf Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Monroe, the Golden GOD of W. Wa stations hit 26 during that cold snap, and they are 1000' lower than Tim. Conveniently Snoqualmie falls just keeps precip and snowfall data. https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00455525&year=2017&month=11&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Luckily there is a station in the valley here which does keep temperature records... and it did not go below freezing with the November event. Coldest temp was 32.2 degrees. The first freeze in the valley last year was on December 5th. Same up here... as I reported. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Luckily there is a station in the valley here which does keep temperature records... and it did not go below freezing with the November event. Coldest temp was 32.2 degrees. The first freeze in the valley last year was on December 5th. Same up here... as I reported. Did this station also receive accumulating snow? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Did this station also receive accumulating snow?Yes. I think we all had snow in this area. Even Jim who also reported that it did not go below freezing at the time. Same at SEA... measurable snow and did not go below freezing. Coldest temperature was 33 there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 "Michael" will likely be retired. Amazing how fast this evolved.Yeah, it just got upgraded to a category 3 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Taking advantage of this nice weather to catch some fish on my lunch break! Nice smallmouth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Correction... it did dip down to 30 in valley on Halloween morning last year. I forgot about that. We had a little east wind up here and it was in the mid-30s that morning. The valley is typically colder than up here on a clear, calm night. As is true in most places on Earth. Cold air sinks. But it did not go below freezing with the early November snow event last year even down there. The next freeze was on December 5th. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Flatiron gets a bad rap. He is nothing like Tim. I think his point was that Jared likes to challenge data presented by anyone. And he challenges me as well which is fine. Jesse would prefer an answer that allows him to just dismiss me as a biased troll out to get him. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 And I just checked Palmer (at 919 feet) and the coldest temp there during the November snow event was 32 degrees. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Classic for warm ENSO. Of course we also had cold in early November last year. Yes, and cold in mid September-early October is not classic for warm ENSO...but that's what we've seen. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Jesse would prefer an answer that allows him to just dismiss me as a biased troll out to get him. I posted a snowfall map for you in the Mountain West thread. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Jesse would prefer an answer that allows him to just dismiss me as a biased troll out to get him. Nah, my comment was more about your tendency to start long kinda pointless debates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 The best (worst) part of it is that the news outlets aren't fear-mongering it this time, so people will assume it's no big deal. This is going to be very bad, and Panama City Strong will become a thing. Gonna be surreal to see one of the biggest party towns in the USA get ripped to shreds. We definitely saw that in 2005. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Yes, and cold in mid September-early October is not classic for warm ENSO...but that's what we've seen. 30dTDeptWRCC-NW.png Yep... its been cold and wet around here overall for over a month now. A warmer, drier spell is probably in order to balance it out. I wonder if that will show up in the models soon? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 I posted a snowfall map for you in the Mountain West thread. Appreciated! Looks like all models are onboard. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Nah, my comment was more about your tendency to start long kinda pointless debates. Whatever allows one to cry: "Help, I'm being FLATIRONED!" Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Whatever allows one to cry: "Help, I'm being FLATIRONED!"It’s happened to all of us at some point. #metoo 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter? 91-9297-9802-0314-15 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 91-9297-9802-0314-15I don't know about 91-92 because it was so volcanically active, but the others seem viable! Phil, Tim, what about you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 I don't know about 91-92 because it was so volcanically active, but the others seem viable! Phil, Tim, what about you? I have not spent any time looking at it yet... I will defer to Phil. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 It’s happened to all of us at some point. #metoo Copouts are convenient. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter? 1951-521968-691977-781994-952006-07 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 1951-521968-691977-781994-952006-07I will take a 06-07 repeat, and before my time but a 68-69 sounds good as well. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 It's funny that just a few hundred miles to the south, those "analogs" are kind of all over the place: 1951-52 - cool and wet1968-69 - cool and very wet1977-78 - warm and wet1994-95 - warm and very wet2006-07 - warm and driest on record Going north makes a big difference. As you know. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 18z shows 0.00" of rain here the next two and a half weeks. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter?1948-19491949-19501956-19571968-19691985-19861992-19932003-20042008-20092013-2014 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 It's funny that just a few hundred miles to the south, those "analogs" are kind of all over the place: 1951-52 - cool and wet1968-69 - cool and very wet1977-78 - warm and wet1994-95 - warm and very wet2006-07 - warm and driest on recordI distinctly remember a blast in 2007 where our frat walked from the Phi Psi house to 7-11 in t-shirts and shorts when it was like 15 degrees after some snow going in. So even those warm ones delivered some goodies. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 18z shows 0.00" of rain here the next two and a half weeks.Nice! I bet we get double that amount up here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Best case scenario is record warm/dry through the 30th followed by record rainfall on the 31st. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Best case scenario is record warm/dry through the 30th followed by record rainfall on the 31st.0.01 every day between now and the 31st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Best case scenario is record warm/dry through the 30th followed by record rainfall on the 31st. I remember one year when my boys were younger we had like 2 inches of rain on Halloween and it stopped raining around 4:30 in the afternoon and was delightful and pleasantly warm and totally calm during the evening festivities. I also remember freezing our as$es off on a bone dry Halloween with a brisk east wind. I preferred the rainy day scenario. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 0.01 every day between now and the 31st. Hmmmmm Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter?Range of possibilities. These are the ones I’m looking at. 2014/152012/13 (extratropics)2003/041994/95 (iffy)1987/881986/871977/78 (old..use w/ caution). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 I would avoid using any analogs before 1977. Also, stay away from 1957/58, 1958/59, 1968/69, 1969/70, 1972/73, 1990/91, 1991/92, 2002/03, and 2006/07. These all have serious tropical-extratropical disconnects from 2018. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 Range of possibilities. These are the ones I’m looking at. 2014/152012/13 (extratropics)2003/041994/95 (iffy)1987/881986/871977/78 (old..use w/ caution).I was thinking 14-15 too. Cold shot in Nov and some snow for Washington and Central Oregon then blowtorch the rest of the way. Rats! 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 9, 2018 Report Share Posted October 9, 2018 0.01 every day between now and the 31st.Crisp morning hater! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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