November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Heads up....all numerical models showing titanic blocking towards the end of the month and early Dec. Someone will cash in extremely good w wintry weather.

[bud2380]

12z Euro with a significant snowstorm for a good chunk of the area in the 7-8 day time frame.

[james1976]

Cant believe how cold it is. Still only 21. Snowcover making a big difference.

[Madtown]

29 here! brrrr

[Niko]

North-central Iowa crashed to around -6 degrees this morning.  Wow!  The Cedar Rapids airport hit 9, while it was about 12 here.

[Niko]

At 34F now w cloudy skies.

[james1976]

Just found out Waterloo set a record low of 1. Old record was 4. None of this was forecasted.

[Grizzcoat]

Yeah this cold caught many NWS offices off guard and was underdone by most guidance. DMX had a high of 36F for the DSM today and it only made 30F. 6F off within 8 hours is not very good....

[Grizzcoat]

12z Euro with a significant snowstorm for a good chunk of the area in the 7-8 day time frame.

12Z Canadian and NAVGEM -- and 18Z GFS also show it (albeit slightly weaker and further S and E)-- but a good sign in the GFS.

[bud2380]

18z GFS snow map.  Things getting interesting. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111818/174/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[CentralNebWeather]

Have had several post Thanksgiving storms over the years around here, 2005 the most recent and 1983 being a classic. Will be a lot of back and forth this week and it might disappear, but just the the potential every week so far this season is something.

[jaster220]

Uhmm...hello there

 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm gonna be actively rooting against a Sunday storm, that's the day I fly back from California. If it could trend towards Monday that'd be nice.

[jaster220]

I'm gonna be actively rooting against a Sunday storm, that's the day I fly back from California. If it could trend towards Monday that'd be nice.

 

push it my way along with some of your cold air. I will take it any day of the week.

[St Paul Storm]

[St Paul Storm]

Another half inch of snow in the works overnight. We’re going to nickel and dime our way to 80” this season.

[St Paul Storm]

Minneapolis struggling with just 2.0 inches of snow this winter (per the late afternoon climate summary); less than 40% of St. Louis's 5.1 inch seasonal total.

Last year we had a total of 10” on Jan1 and we finished with 79”. We have 2” officially so far, and our normal is 5”. I’d rather be below normal now than late March.

[Niko]

Uhmm...hello there

 

[Niko]

Clouds have finally broken up. Temps have fallen back into the upper 20s. Lows are expected to bottom out in the low to mid 20s.

[westMJim]

The temperature is at 21° here with some broken clouds.

[Money]

Gfs says what storm for next weekend?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL it went from a storm to nothing. But why should we act surprised? it could come back as fast as it vanished.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS barely even had a storm on 18Z. Don't fret about it. Even GEM has a better record this season than GFS.

[Money]

Gem still has a storm

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018111900&fh=210

[Minny_Weather]

I'm fine with getting nothing as long as people to our North cash in. We need the snowpack to build up in Canada, that's what's keeping us from being locked in deep freezes. Once snowpack builds up North, then it can only go South from there. The fact that we've had 7" up to mid-November is nice and all, but it's almost jack considering we seem to get up into the 40s every day after a snowfall. Yeah it's November blah blah, and that's why I'm saying we need to build up a snowpack in Canada first.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z Euro still has the system and its quite powerful but the thermal profiles are marginal. Just glad to see the Euro hang on; for now. 

 

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2018111900&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=850tw&rh=2018111900&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=

[westMJim]

The official low at GRR this morning was 27° here at my house it was a much colder 20.8° the current temperature here at my house in 28.7° while no snow or rain there is a lot of frost. At this time there are clouds moving in from the west.

[Tom]

Took a morning stroll and there is heavy frost everywhere, prob the most I've seen all season as temps dipped into the mid 20's with a current temp of 25F and a somewhat nippy WC of 16F.  Some folks already put up their Christmas lights/decor around the neighborhood which was neat to see as people are getting into the holiday spirit.

 

The big storm that keeps showing up on the Euro Op/Control is nice to see and one that I think posses a better chance for those in KS/NE/IA to see snow out of this than out this way.  00z EPS signalling a better snow signal out in the Plains states up into MN/WI.  Marginal temps near the GL's will need to be watched, nonetheless, some peeps on here are going to cash in on some snowfall late this weekend into early the following week.

[bud2380]

A little different look to it but the 6z GFS has the storm back at least.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111906/162/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Niko]

Heavy frost this morning, along w freezing fog and a temp of 22F. Now, this is a combo you don't see often.

 

Some light snow tanite. Maybe an inch or 2.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm liking the later trend on Euro. My plane can land and I can drive in rain. Those things can't happen in a snowstorm.

[Money]

Gfs

[St Paul Storm]

E WI buried on the 12z GFS. Money jack zone.

[St Paul Storm]

GEM develops the storm as well, but thermals are an issue. Looks like we have something to track though.

[Tom]

GEM develops the storm as well, but thermals are an issue. Looks like we have something to track though.

Yup, pretty confident this will be an entertaining week of tracking throughout the holiday week.  

[GDR]

[St Paul Storm]

Yup, pretty confident this will be an entertaining week of tracking throughout the holiday week.

 

12z GEFS not as excited. Many ensembles don’t even show much of a storm. Others show snow west of here. Every option is available.

[CentralNebWeather]

Should be an interesting storm to track.  Models are all over the place.  NWS Hastings and North Platte both mention a storm but say it is way to early and too much model discrepancies to even mention in the hazardous weather outlooks yet.  

[Niko]

Current conditions: mostly cloudy and cold w temps in the 30s.

[Niko]

SEMI stays dry w moderating temps by weeks end. Perhaps as high as the mid 40s, b4 cooling back down to highs in the 30s and eventually near 30F. No big storms as for now, unless, models change course.