November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Requiem]

Wow Kansas City is 27 with snow and winds gusting to 55mph right now. Totally insane for November. 

 

Lucky.

[Esquimalt]

Alaska high too far east on the 18Z so cold air gets shafted east.

[BLI snowman]

Looks chilly in Phoenix on the 18z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gets chilly, but not cold. At the surface would be a chilly pattern though.

[Requiem]

That was some GFS run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS shows 2000'-2500' snow levels.  Maybe we can manage a high in the low 40s?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well there would probably be a lot of fake cold if that run verified and my goodness that is some shot of cold going into the eastern half of the nation late in the run. Looks like no sign of the arctic express letting up.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate.

 

I'm actually pretty optimistic. Call me Phil, but I think in a decade or two all of this hand wringing will seem pretty silly.

[BLI snowman]

At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate.

 

The eastern 2/3 of the country has always seen more arctic airmasses than us.

[Requiem]

I don't get it. Chicago's getting a blizzard, New York has had a snowstorm, the South had a powerful storm last week. Why can't we get our turn for once?

[Deweydog]

Ugh.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ugh.

 

Should we explain climate 101?

[Esquimalt]

I don't get it. Chicago's getting a blizzard, New York has had a snowstorm, the South had a powerful storm last week. Why can't we get our turn for once?

My theory is because all of the people who like boring weather come to the west coast (because these are the people who hate the snow, thunderstorms, active weather and all that fun stuff).  

[Esquimalt]

Ridge once again too far east on the FV3...lets hope ensembles aren't going back to the old warm anomaly stuff.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly even though it is likely the vast majority of the cold air slides east it looks like a below average start to December in the PNW. Dry airmass that starts as pretty chilly and then transitions to "fake cold" probably. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is incredible.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/mon2day.F.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Massive arctic outbreak.

 

[jcmcgaffey]

Does anyone know when the GFS is being replaced/combined with the FV3 into one model?

[Farmboy]

At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate.

Pretty much an expected outcome.

[Esquimalt]

Massive arctic outbreak.

 

Sure, if you live in Minnesota

[Requiem]

Sure, if you live in Minnesota

 

The worst part is that pattern doesn't even give PDX any east wind. It's just cold and boring, and dry. I just want one significant storm, but looks like for the time being it's just the mess that's tomorrow's system and then perhaps a storm on Saturday (trending weaker each run).

[Esquimalt]

The worst part is that pattern doesn't even give PDX any east wind. It's just cold and boring, and dry. I just want one significant storm, but looks like for the time being it's just the mess that's tomorrow's system and then perhaps a storm on Saturday (trending weaker each run).

Honestly all I care about is snow. I don't care about cold, wind or anything else for that matter. I'm hoping for a 1996 repeat this winter lol.

[James Jones]

The eastern 2/3 of the country has always seen more arctic airmasses than us.

 

These new mountain ranges that have popped up in the last couple decades are total ******* bullshit.

[FroYoBro]

The worst part is that pattern doesn't even give PDX any east wind. It's just cold and boring, and dry. I just want one significant storm, but looks like for the time being it's just the mess that's tomorrow's system and then perhaps a storm on Saturday (trending weaker each run).

 

Stop being a baby.

[Timmy Supercell]

If the last few days of the month don't produce any snow for 4000-4500 foot elevations, that would match Nov 2014 here (had just a trace that month).

[MossMan]

I think the real winter weather potential will be generally north of Seattle and in that December 3-5 period. Just a hunch.

That works!

[Requiem]

Honestly all I care about is snow. I don't care about cold, wind or anything else for that matter. I'm hoping for a 1996 repeat this winter lol.

 

To be honest I just want an event. Just something cool, like a heavy rain+wind as in November 2006 or November 1996, a December 2006 windstorm, a December 2008 redux, or even a January 1998 redux. In each of these years there was at least one significant weather event, if not more. This is one of the only years where I can say that 2018 has not brought a single significant event to the area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stop being a baby.

 

What's funny is what the FV3 shows would probably be a pretty good east wind setup.

[Front Ranger]

Wow Kansas City is 27 with snow and winds gusting to 55mph right now. Totally insane for November. 

 

SOLAR MIN MAYHEM!!!

[Requiem]

Stop being a baby.

 

Oh well.

[TT-SEA]

What's funny is what the FV3 shows would probably be a pretty good east wind setup.

If the basin turns cold then the east wind will come.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the basin turns cold then the east wind will come.

 

Given it will be early December and the initial airmass is fairly chilly that should not be a problem.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Another warm weak Santa Ana Wind day in California. We have very small backyards here due to the population density, so there's not much time to enjoy the sunshine without going to the nearby sports park.

 

Fires are finally contained, with more rain forecast Thursday.

 

[Esquimalt]

Looks like a really deep trough on the long range of the FV3, looking to bring back some cold air.

[Requiem]

Perhaps I overreacted. Sorry, I'm just a bit tired of the same old same old for an entire year. I loved 2016-2017, why not a repeat of that?

[Front Ranger]

Pretty strong Aleutian ridging signal in the ensembles for second week of December.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy mother of God. January 1971 redux?!

 

[Requiem]

Pretty strong Aleutian ridging signal in the ensembles for second week of December.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_50.png

 

Nice.