November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

EPO also looks to tank as we head into December. Blocky fall meet blocky winter!

 

So far, so good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No one saw all this record November eastern cold/snow coming. I think it's fair to say all bets are off right now.

 

I posted a map earlier, but about 80% of the lower 48 has been below average in November. The middle of the country significantly so. I saw Cedar Rapids, IA is running about a 7F departure with several days of well below average temps coming up. They'll probably end up with about an 8F departure which is about what PDX saw in November 1985.

[stuffradio]

The tops of the closest mountains to my house (Golden Ears and a few behind it) were covered in snow today. Golden Ears had a dusting only, and the others behind it were much more thickly blanketed. There are glaciers behind Golden Ears. It's quite stunning. I wish I could fly over it some day.

[Front Ranger]

In Flatiron’s world it’s EPO or bust. Nothing else matters. The PV (aka: the cold air production system) is somehow irrelevant.

 

Forget about the fact it’s the wave-1 structure itself that acts as the -EPO conduit.

 

Random outburst...

 

The AO, NAO, and EPO all play a role in delivering cold to the mid latitudes. The EPO is the most consequential for the CONUS, including the PNW. It is what it is.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm liking the chances for below to well below average temps next month and the CFS agrees so you guys can probably just stop looking at the models now.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/34gaans.png

I pin all my hopes and dreams on the CFS

[Kayla]

I posted a map earlier, but about 80% of the lower 48 has been below average in November. The middle of the country significantly so. I saw Cedar Rapids, IA is running about a 7F departure with several days of well below average temps coming up. They'll probably end up with about an 8F departure which is about what PDX saw in November 1985.

 

Yeah I think someone mentioned it before that the eastern two thirds is going through a NW version of November 1985 this year.

 

Pretty incredible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's a nice system going into California later this week.

[Phil]

Random outburst...

 

The AO, NAO, and EPO all play a role in delivering cold to the mid latitudes. The EPO is the most consequential for the CONUS, including the PNW. It is what it is.

Perhaps, but storm track/precipitation tendencies and subsequent wavebreak cycles (which can actually evolve into EPO blocks, similar to the current one) are more affected by the NAO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Decent shot of mountain snow into the Oregon Cascades late in the week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any ideas where this month is going to end up nationally in terms of cold Novembers? Coldest since?

[Front Ranger]

Perhaps, but storm track/precip tendencies and subsequent wavebreak cycles (which can evolve into EPO blocks, similar to the current one) are more affected by the NAO.

 

Regardless, it's all high latitude blocking, all of it increases chances of us getting cold, and it's all more likely than normal this winter.

 

God bless low solar/weak ENSO.

[Phil]

Regardless, it's all high latitude blocking, all of it increases chances of us getting cold, and it's all more likely than normal this winter.

 

God bless low solar/weak ENSO.

We agree here.

[Timmy]

Decent shot of mountain snow into the Oregon Cascades late in the week.

did later this week happen already ?

[Front Ranger]

Any ideas where this month is going to end up nationally in terms of cold Novembers? Coldest since?

 

2014 was pretty cold. It will probably have a tough time beating that. 

 

That one was the coldest in quite a awhile, I believe, maybe since 2000?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is cool and dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 186 the GFS is not going to generate a lot of excitement. 

[Requiem]

Through hour 186 the GFS is not going to generate a lot of excitement. 

 

That's for sure. The weak storm tomorrow is the only thing of note in these first 186 hours.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah I think someone mentioned it before that the eastern two thirds is going through a NW version of November 1985 this year.

 

Pretty incredible.

 

 

November 1985 was much more historically impressive on the whole for the region than this month has been in the East. I think Missouri is the only place where the monthly averages may end up legitimately top tier.

[MossMan]

That's for sure. The weak storm tomorrow is the only thing of note in these first 186 hours.

Move north, we will be going underwater up here.

[Kayla]

Through hour 186 the GFS is not going to generate a lot of excitement. 

 

Days 9-10 look to be pretty good though.

[Requiem]

Move north, we will be going underwater up here.

 

I'm jealous, you guys really do get the brunt of the storm. It's not all that impressive to begin with, but you'll get the full force!

[GHweatherChris]

Oh Phil, no other way you can respond without be condescending or without hyperbole.... well done sir!

[Phil]

[Phil]

Oh Phil, no other way you can respond without be condescending or without hyperbole.... well done sir!

Pot meet kettle.

[BLI snowman]

Any ideas where this month is going to end up nationally in terms of cold Novembers? Coldest since?

 

2014. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Days 9-10 look to be pretty good though.

 

For you. W. Oregon looks warm with heavy rain Eugene/south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2014. 

 

That isn't super exciting, but at least we are going to pull of a below average month nationally.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, it hasn’t been very impressive here.

 

Haven’t seen a low below 25*F yet. Even last year we’d already dropped to 22*F, before Thanksgiving. And that was an average November in the end.

 

I think folks have been so cold anomaly starved that they're reaching a bit. Kind of like the local media when it snows a trace in Seattle or Portland.

[Front Ranger]

For you. W. Oregon looks warm with heavy rain Eugene/south.

 

Lots of snow for the Sierras/Siskiyous this run.

[Phil]

I think folks have been so cold anomaly starved that they're reaching a bit. Kind of like the local media when it snows a trace in Seattle or Portland.

Yep. Six consecutive months with positive departures will do that sort of thing.

[Front Ranger]

I think folks have been so cold anomaly starved that they're reaching a bit. Kind of like the local media when it snows a trace in Seattle or Portland.

 

It's been a legitimately impressive month. May actually beat 2014, which would make it the coldest November since at least 2000. And there have been lots of cold and snow records set as well.

 

[MossMan]

Lots of snow for the Sierras/Siskiyous this run.

How about extreme northern Snohomish Co.?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am just going to leave the clown range GFS alone tonight...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I am just going to leave the clown range GFS alone tonight...

 

Looks wet!

[Phil]

[MossMan]

[Phil]

Hour 288 could be leading to something if the Aleutian ridge continues to move just a bit further east.

The broad/flat Aleutian ridge pattern might work well for people like Tim/Andrew, but it’s a con job in the Arctic air department. Really puts a lid on wave amplification.

[BLI snowman]

The EPS weeklies are absolutely hideous. Probably wrong but still..hideous.

 

Vortex in Alaska after D20, winter heatwave from the PNW thru the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, with a small pocket of cool anomalies in the Deep South. Complete blast furnace.

 

But...8-9?

[MossMan]

Took this pic today while at the hospital in Everett picking up my dad, he was on the 10th floor with an amazing view of the cascades. He’s glad to be home however!

[Phil]

This run was going places until the flat aleutian ridge killed the poleward-vertical wave actually.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png