November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is quite chilly.

 

Yes it is. Some modified arctic air into NE Washington even. Slightly different progression than the GFS allows the secondary cold shot to dig a little more west on the GEM. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very nice NPAC breaker @ D7. Gonna be a crazy clown range for someone in the west-central US .

 

CENTRAL.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Notice the difference between the GEM and GFS. 

 

GFS

GEM

[Phil]

Eurasia looks perfect. Not sure why North America went zonal, but it might be the typical GFS bias to extend the MJO/near-equator forcing too far into the WHEM.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Highs in the low 40s with hard frosts predicted next week. A foot of snow is predicted in Government Camp next Saturday.

[MossMan]

Notice the difference between the GEM and GFS.

 

GFS

GEM

That pesky low is stronger and further north on the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That pesky low is stronger and further north on the GFS.

 

Yep. The GFS has trended that way and we haven't seen the good runs as a result.

[Jbolin]

One member on the 06z GEFS plumes shows 1.15 inches of snow at SEA next Monday. Let's go P19!

#LockItIn

[Phil]

Notice the difference between the GEM and GFS.

 

GFS

GEM

Interesting how both the GFS and CMC both took the exact same steps early on (good trends upstream) but end up with wildly different solutions over North America in the long run.

 

With intraseasonal forcing re-entering the EHEM, that would statistically favor the CMC projection. The GFS is easily the worst model when it comes to Indo-Pacific convection.

[Esquimalt]

Yep. The GFS has trended that way and we haven't seen the good runs as a result.

Hopefully we start going the other way soon.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS Super Ensemble and Canadian Ensemble 500mb Analog Composite

 

Day 6-10

Looking pretty good. A lot of cold/snow years showing up. Correlation scores need work, but there has been good run-to-run consistency suggesting we may see a cold pattern or at the least a backdoor cold shot. Colder runs ahead.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hght_comp_can610.gif

Good to see you back Rob!!!

[kokaneekidz]

Good to see you back Rob!!!

That 12 20 1990 analog was the best snowstorm I can remember from my childhood. Here is a news clip from that time.

 

STORM PARALYZES SEATTLE WITH 14 INCHES OF SNOW

 

 

 

By O. Casey Corr

December 20, 1990

SEATTLE, DEC. 19 -- Cited as one of the world's "most livable cities" in a recent survey, Seattle today was the nation's "most immobile city" after a storm left as much as 14 inches of snow overnight, paralyzing traffic, closing schools, separating children from parents and temporarily knocking out power to 150,000 homes.

With a forecast of continued low temperatures and perhaps more snow, there was no hope of an immediate meltdown in the city that owns relatively few snowplows or sanding trucks. Snow usually falls in low-lying areas once or twice a year and quickly melts or is washed away by rain.

Across western Washington overnight Tuesday, frustrated drivers simply walked away from vehicles, leaving hundreds abandoned on roads and highways. Anxious or merely chatty residents overloaded phone lines while trying to locate children or compare stories of one of the worst commutes in local memory. Trips that normally take 15 minutes lasted hours.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1990 must have been more cold than snow down here. Still was apparently a white Christmas in Eugene tho.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

That 12 20 1990 analog was the best snowstorm I can remember from my childhood. Here is a news clip from that time.

 

STORM PARALYZES SEATTLE WITH 14 INCHES OF SNOW

 

 

 

By O. Casey Corr

December 20, 1990

SEATTLE, DEC. 19 -- Cited as one of the world's "most livable cities" in a recent survey, Seattle today was the nation's "most immobile city" after a storm left as much as 14 inches of snow overnight, paralyzing traffic, closing schools, separating children from parents and temporarily knocking out power to 150,000 homes.

With a forecast of continued low temperatures and perhaps more snow, there was no hope of an immediate meltdown in the city that owns relatively few snowplows or sanding trucks. Snow usually falls in low-lying areas once or twice a year and quickly melts or is washed away by rain.

Across western Washington overnight Tuesday, frustrated drivers simply walked away from vehicles, leaving hundreds abandoned on roads and highways. Anxious or merely chatty residents overloaded phone lines while trying to locate children or compare stories of one of the worst commutes in local memory. Trips that normally take 15 minutes lasted hours.

 

 

So you are saying Trump was involved in that storm?

[ShawniganLake]

Wet out there. 1.5” so far.

[MossMan]

That 12 20 1990 analog was the best snowstorm I can remember from my childhood. Here is a news clip from that time.

 

 

 

 

 

STORM PARALYZES SEATTLE WITH 14 INCHES OF SNOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By O. Casey Corr December 20, 1990

SEATTLE, DEC. 19 -- Cited as one of the world's "most livable cities" in a recent survey, Seattle today was the nation's "most immobile city" after a storm left as much as 14 inches of snow overnight, paralyzing traffic, closing schools, separating children from parents and temporarily knocking out power to 150,000 homes.

With a forecast of continued low temperatures and perhaps more snow, there was no hope of an immediate meltdown in the city that owns relatively few snowplows or sanding trucks. Snow usually falls in low-lying areas once or twice a year and quickly melts or is washed away by rain.

Across western Washington overnight Tuesday, frustrated drivers simply walked away from vehicles, leaving hundreds abandoned on roads and highways. Anxious or merely chatty residents overloaded phone lines while trying to locate children or compare stories of one of the worst commutes in local memory. Trips that normally take 15 minutes lasted hours.

That was a wild day! And a wild couple of weeks! I remember it quite well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 44 last night. Let's see how far into December we can get til we have a high temp below 48. Latest since I moved here in 1989 is the first week of December back in 1995.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1990 must have been more cold than snow down here.

 

It was. But Silverton managed 4" going into the event. Which is more than most places in W. Oregon. Silverton had a 17/3 day, three straight highs in the teens. Here is that month at Silverton. Eugene had a high of 16 with the event. That event had unbelievable cold air advection. Silver Falls had their coldest day on record with a 12/-2 day on the 21st. Narrowly beating out the 21/-9 from 1972. 

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357823&year=1990&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

Here is Salem.

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1990&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

Eugene

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=1990&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[kokaneekidz]

So you are saying Trump was involved in that storm?

No he just added some Russian Borscht to the mix.

[kokaneekidz]

So you are saying Trump was involved in that storm?

There were school buses that took 7 hours to get kids home safely. I lived in old Mukilteo at the time and luckily we were under a major convergence zone that started around 9am and our school district closed at noon and got everyone home before the roads iced up a couple hours later in the day... A benefit to living in this zone is it snows before the arctic boundary gets here due to the wet bulb cooling effects from intensity and slight elevation. It is the only time I can remember the manhole covers freezing and snow sticking on them to not interfere with sledding....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There were school buses that took 7 hours to get kids home safely. I lived in old Mukilteo at the time and luckily we were under a major convergence zone that started around 9am and our school district closed at noon and got everyone home before the roads iced up a couple hours later in the day... A benefit to living in this zone is it snows before the arctic boundary gets here due to the wet bulb cooling effects from intensity and slight elevation. It is the only time I can remember the manhole covers freezing and snow sticking on them to not interfere with sledding....

 

Crazy. I was 6 years old then, but I vividly remember. We had a seasonal pond on the farm I grew up on and it froze solid during this event, had a lot of fun with that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am really interested in seeing what the EURO shows for Saturday. It has kind of been on its own with that 977mb low tracking across Oregon.

[Farmboy]

Now that I’m back home, you guys are gonna get tired of me very quickly.

Sounds like a bad omen. Do you know something you're not sharing yet?

[ShawniganLake]

I am really interested in seeing what the EURO shows for Saturday. It has kind of been on its own with that 977mb low tracking across Oregon.

Gem made a move towards the stronger Saturday low idea

 

Ensemble looks solid with the trough around the 3rd. Then it’s mixed with a few cold solutions

[MossMan]

Crazy. I was 6 years old then, but I vividly remember. We had a seasonal pond on the farm I grew up on and it froze solid during this event, had a lot of fun with that.

I was 14 and recorded a whole bunch of news footage from that event. Sadly it was lost though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't even look at the FV3 unless you want to vomit.

 

[Jesse]

Looks like some decent rain this week. Maybe more mountain snow. I’ll take it.

[Deweydog]

Don't even look at the FV3 unless you want to vomit.

 

Might work out well for those who overindulged during the holiday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some decent rain this week. Maybe more mountain snow. I’ll take it.

 

This week should push SLE above 2013 for annual rainfall, so it won't end up a record dry year. Surprisingly they pulled off a high of only 43 yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

I am really interested in seeing what the EURO shows for Saturday. It has kind of been on its own with that 977mb low tracking across Oregon.

 

Much weaker on the 12Z run.

 

Here was the 00Z run for Saturday morning:

 

 

And the new 12Z run:

 

[TT-SEA]

And 6 hours later:

 

00Z run for Saturday at 10 a.m.

 

 

12Z run:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That blizzard that cut across the nations midsection yesterday put up some impressive numbers. O'Hare in Chicago recorded 7.4" of snow which is its 5th largest snow event in November on record. Rockford, IL had 13" which was a record for a November storm. Chicago is running a -5.7 departure on the month.

[TT-SEA]

Fairly dry weekend ahead again per the 12Z ECMWF.

[MossMan]

Going to snow in December.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Much weaker on the 12Z run.

 

Here was the 00Z run for Saturday morning:

 

 

And the new 12Z run:

 

What about precipitation?  Past runs were showing a lot of snow for the Cascades and in my area too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And 6 hours later:

 

00Z run for Saturday at 10 a.m.

 

 

12Z run:

 

 

Makes sense. No other model showed this solution.

[TT-SEA]

What about precipitation?  Past runs were showing a lot of snow for the Cascades and in my area too.

 

 

Here is 4 - 10 a.m. period:

 

 

 

And the 10 a.m. - 4 p.m. period:

 

 

 

And finally the 4 - 10 p.m.

 

[Esquimalt]

Here is 4 - 10 a.m. period:

 

 

 

And the 10 a.m. - 4 p.m. period:

 

 

 

And finally the 4 - 10 p.m.

 

Any snow maps?  Previous runs were showing trace-3 inches in my area.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thought I would post this picture from one of the Facebook groups. Spring is right around the corner!

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is 4 - 10 a.m. period:

 

 

 

And the 10 a.m. - 4 p.m. period:

 

 

 

And finally the 4 - 10 p.m.

 

Thanks, looks like it really cut down on the precip amounts too, unfortunately.  Although it looks like there might by a system early Saturday morning.