November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6-10 day looks cool and dry, and the confidence by the CPC in the forecast is 5 out of 5

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.off.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.temp.gif

 

 

Wow. This is why I always say those analogs are totally meaningless. That analog list is a who's who of PNW arctic outbreaks. Yet we'll be luck to get some chilly 42/28 type days at the major airport stations. 

 

That list is crazy...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not super familiar with December 1961, but it looks like a solid event. 

 

Coldest day at the following locations with that event. 

 

PDX: 34/21

SLE: 32/15

EUG: 31/20

Silver Falls: 34/13

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is still showing about 4-8" of snow for the Oregon Cascades Friday night into Saturday. Higher totals further south.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Latest GFS looking snowy for Bachelor and Bend starting Thursday.

[Jesse]

Looking like the real rain for the day will be moving in soon. Sprinkles earlier were just a bonus.

[Jesse]

GFS is still showing about 4-8" of snow for the Oregon Cascades Friday night into Saturday. Higher totals further south.

Siskiyous are due for a snowy winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Siskiyous are due for a snowy winter.

 

Yeah it would be great to see. 

[Deweydog]

Stormy at the coast. We were just there!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some improvement.

 

 

12z

 

[Deweydog]

Notches!

[ShawniganLake]

Some improvement.

 

 

12z

 

Looks like the 18z might try something decent.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow some amazingly cold air up north... To bad it won't be up there this weekend when we actually have a pattern capable of delivering. As of hour 252 it stays bottled up!

 

[Timmy]

I think they might be on the rise again after cutting ties now with all of their over-paid stars from the glory years.

 

And what does losing to the Seahawks at home say about the greatest team ever created... everyone's favorite team across this country of course... the Carolina Panthers led by the biggest baby in the NFL?

 

Trust me, I’m a huge Ducks fan so I hated Cam as much as anyone. Now I have to root for him but still can’t stand his antics. I won’t be a Panthers fan if my buddy is playing for someone else next year. I honestly hope he ends up in Seattle but who knows?

[Phil]

850mb temps down to -49C!

 

[Esquimalt]

I like the look of the 18Z...just wishing the cold air makes it a little further south.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

An area of sub 474 thickness values in NW Canada. Unreal.

 

[Phil]

Strike that, -50*C @ 850mb.

 

Holy fook.

[TT-SEA]

Trust me, I’m a huge Ducks fan so I hated Cam as much as anyone. Now I have to root for him but still can’t stand his antics. I won’t be a Panthers fan if my buddy is playing for someone else next year. I honestly hope he ends up in Seattle but who knows?

 

What is your friend's name again?

[Deweydog]

Juneau gets chilly.

[Timmy]

What is your friend's name again?

David mayo, he is Kuechly’s backup.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the look of the 18Z...just wishing the cold air makes it a little further south.  

 

Looks more like we'll have a parade of storms as all that cold air interacts with the GOA and churns up some strong lows...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

David mayo, he is Kuechly’s backup.

 

From Scappoose right? Pretty crazy such a small high school has two alumni in the NFL. And being Kuechly's backup he probably gets plenty of playing time because that dude is made of glass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Strike that, -50*C @ 850mb.

 

Holy fook.

 

What is the NH record for December?

[High Desert Mat!]

I remember watching the Boz on Katu and Capell on Kgw back in the day. They used to say, "just watch up north towards eastern Alaska and the Yukon to see if we're going to get cold enough for snow". Now look up there, brutally cold coming.

[Phil]

What is the NH record for December?

In the satellite era?

 

-50C is colder than anything I’m aware of over North America this early in the season.

[TT-SEA]

David mayo, he is Kuechly’s backup.

 

So no one in Charlotte ever wants to see him play even one down.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember watching the Boz on Katu and Capell on Kgw back in the day. They used to say, "just watch up north towards eastern Alaska and the Yukon to see if we're going to get cold enough for snow". Now look up there, brutally cold coming.

 

Coast to coast torch at hour 384.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In the satellite era?

 

-50C is colder than anything I’m aware of over North America this early in the season.

 

Something is going on this year. The magnitude of these airmasses is just astounding. 

[Timmy]

So no one in Charlotte ever wants to see him play even one down.

Right, he plays as Thomas Davis’ backup too so that’s not so bad. I wouldn’t be suprised if Davis isn’t with the team next year though and David gets the role. Although he plays better as a middle LB.

[Esquimalt]

Something is going on this year. The magnitude of these airmasses is just astounding. 

It must be the depth of the solar min.  Its insane.  

[Timmy]

Something is going on this year. The magnitude of these airmasses is just astounding.

I bet we will see some more chilly ensemble members at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet we will see some more chilly ensemble members at least.

 

Maybe. Totally crazy to see those analogs Brian from Leavenworth posted earlier. Pretty much every one of those delivered some thing good. And the GEM would get us pretty chilly. Maybe its on to something for once. 

[Jesse]

Right, he plays as Thomas Davis’ backup too so that’s not so bad. I wouldn’t be suprised if Davis isn’t with the team next year though and David gets the role. Although he plays better as a middle LB.

20 years ago this post would have been in the banter thread.

[Jesse]

52 and breezy here. Amazing how mild 52 feels after getting acclimated to temps in the 40s for a couple days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprised how damp it has been today down here though though SLE has only reported 0.02" of rain. Also up to 59 now and supposedly "partly cloudy." I don't know where the breaks in the clouds are...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV3 looking fairly chilly early next week. 

[Phil]

52 and breezy here. Amazing how mild 52 feels after getting acclimated to temps in the 40s for a couple days.

Interesting. 40s and 50s feel pretty much the same to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV3 looking fairly chilly early next week. 

 

Much cooler/drier. Conversely not nearly as cold upstream in NW Canada.

[Jesse]

Interesting. 40s and 50s feel pretty much the same to me.

There is definitely a cutoff somewhere around 50, IMO. That’s where you go from being able to see your breath consistently to not as much, at least in our climate. Also it’s around where high humidity starts to feel chilly no matter the temperature. High humidity and 50-55+ can actually feel comfortable to even warm with sufficient activity.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim will love the FV3. Totally dry Sunday-Friday next week. Starts out with a cool airmass so would likely be well below average at the surface. As with the operational the pattern goes nowhere interesting after that.