November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Red over Washington is bad.

 

Red on the 850mb temp map is worse.  

[snow_wizard]

Red over Washington is bad.

 

It'll be cold, but really quiet with that.

[Phil]

A brass monkey?

[TT-SEA]

Another fun SEA stat... there has been a total of .22 of rain on all the weekend days combined in November.   And 5 of the 8 weekend days have had no rain.

 

In August... SEA had .16 of rain on all the weekend days combined and 5 of the 8 weekend days had no rain.   

 

Almost exactly the same.   And yet there has been 5.07 inches of rain in November and there was only .20 in August.   Perfect timing in November and really bad timing in August given how dry it was that month.  

[BLI snowman]

Low moving onshore around Cape Blanco over the weekend. Could have some overperformance esp if some d-bands can have good precip rates.

 

Slight chance that thing on Sunday could spin up something interesting.

[MossMan]

A brass monkey?

That funky monkey.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Full latitude polar tap on the 00z GFS. Too far east but fun to look at!

 

Yeah, real fun. I am sure the Seahawks had a lot of fun watching the Patriots celebrating their Super Bowl win over the Hawks a few years ago too. "Wish it would have been us, but fun to watch them celebrate beating us".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Storm train gets going on the long range GFS.

[TT-SEA]

Storm train gets going on the long range GFS.

 

 

My son just came in looking at weather models on his phone and demanded to know when "cold onshore flow" was coming.   He is getting really anxious to hit the slopes.   

[El_Nina]

850’s are about the most important thing to track in my opinion. Not much is going to happen frozen precipitation wise without that number being negative.

And it shows what will be happening snowpack wise.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December 1951 had some pretty chilly temps at Silver Falls. Several lows in the teens early in the month with a low of 12 on the 9th. Closed the month with 5" of snow on the ground and a 36/9 day. January 1952 is missing at Silver Falls, so I'll have to look at Salem.

[Jesse]

December 1951 had some pretty chilly temps at Silver Falls. Several lows in the teens early in the month with a low of 12 on the 9th. Closed the month with 5" of snow on the ground and a 36/9 day. January 1952 is missing at Silver Falls, so I'll have to look at Salem.

December 1950 was probably warm up there. It is our warmest December in record up here. Kind of balanced out the January that year.

[BLI snowman]

December 1951 had some pretty chilly temps at Silver Falls. Several lows in the teens early in the month with a low of 12 on the 9th. Closed the month with 5" of snow on the ground and a 36/9 day. January 1952 is missing at Silver Falls, so I'll have to look at Salem.

 

That whole winter was very nice regionally. Nice snowstorm in mid February 1952, for you valley folk.

[Gradient Keeper]

On the GFS looking back to runs from November 24th. The cold runs the only difference I see at 500mb centered on 4 PM Thursday is the High Pressure west of the Kona Low is stronger by 3-4 mb and is merged with the western Gulf of Alaska ridge. High pressure is sprawled westward just south of the Aleutians. Kona Low is 5-7mb stronger and positioned further southwest. Going forward to 4 PM Saturday the thing that stands out the most is energy in the Bering Sea to the Aleutians is weaker and block develops further west due to that.

 

Tonight's 00z GFS the merger happened a bit sooner and the block sets up 145-140 W. The tilt is what's wrong with it on this run. However, 850s are colder into the Columbia Basin/Eastern Washington. Very strong and cold east winds develop due to the first strong cold pool of the season. Runs could trend colder we just need the energy held back in the Aleutians. C'MON!!!!

 

00z ECMWF in 31 minutes!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My son just came in looking at weather models on his phone and demanded to know when "cold onshore flow" was coming.   He is getting really anxious to hit the slopes.   

 

Sounds a lot like me. 

 

Is your son into the weather? My oldest isn't as much though she LOVES snow. The twins like to talk about the weather every day and I always talk to them about the seasons, types of weather and what the weather is like in Oklahoma and here in Oregon. It may seems silly to talk weather with 4 year old's, but my father got me interested in sciences and the natural world from a very early age. To the point where I distinctly remember weather events in detail from a very young age, I have great memories of February 1990 and December 1990. I remember talking to my Dad in August 1989 why it seemed so much hotter in Salem then it did at our home near the coast in San Diego, and him explaining the moderating effects of the ocean. Of course we tend to remember childhood conversations in adult vocabulary, but that conversation did occur and it was a part of my journey/interest in weather/climate. What I regard as my most fulfilling hobby. If I can help my kids have that, it would be great.

[Bryant]

My son just came in looking at weather models on his phone and demanded to know when "cold onshore flow" was coming.   He is getting really anxious to hit the slopes.   

 

I'm not sure if this place can handle Tim and Tim Jr...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS 850s a bit colder. The Dalles mean temp down to about -8c, previous -5. Progress.

[Timmy Supercell]

0.28" rain at KLMT. Not a huge amount as this was actually spread out over a period of 15 hours. 

 

It's looking increasingly likely that I get some sort of small snow event at the end of November. Maybe a few inches before the first week of December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GEFS 850s a bit colder. The Dalles mean temp down to about -8c, previous -5. Progress.

 

This is the solid analysis this place has missed!

[TT-SEA]

Sounds a lot like me. 

 

Is your son into the weather? My oldest isn't as much though she LOVES snow. The twins like to talk about the weather every day and I always talk to them about the seasons, types of weather and what the weather is like in Oklahoma and here in Oregon. It may seems silly to talk weather with 4 year old's, but my father got me interested in sciences and the natural world from a very early age. To the point where I distinctly remember weather events in detail from a very young age, I have great memories of February 1990 and December 1990. I remember talking to my Dad in August 1989 why it seemed so much hotter in Salem then it did at our home near the coast in San Diego, and him explaining the moderating effects of the ocean. Of course we tend to remember childhood conversations in adult vocabulary, but that conversation did occur and it was a part of my journey/interest in weather/climate. What I regard as my most fulfilling hobby. If I can help my kids have that, it would be great.

 

One son is very interested in weather.   He has learned to decipher the weather models... and follows them closely in the winter.   He loves snow and cold... and loves warmth and sun in the summer.   He will frequently mock my optimistic clearing forecasts in the summer out of annoyance.    This son is also a big sports fan.

 

My other son does not really care about the weather at all... but he does like snow.   And he has mentioned several times that he wants go to college where "it does not rain every f*cking day".   

 

My daughter lives in the moment and loves everything that happens every single day.   God bless her.         

[Jesse]

My daughter lives in the moment and loves everything that happens every single day. God bless her.

 

Hopefully you will eventually be able to put an end to that nonsense and instill her with a proper hatred of clouds and rain.

[MossMan]

Sounds a lot like me.

 

Is your son into the weather? My oldest isn't as much though she LOVES snow. The twins like to talk about the weather every day and I always talk to them about the seasons, types of weather and what the weather is like in Oklahoma and here in Oregon. It may seems silly to talk weather with 4 year old's, but my father got me interested in sciences and the natural world from a very early age. To the point where I distinctly remember weather events in detail from a very young age, I have great memories of February 1990 and December 1990. I remember talking to my Dad in August 1989 why it seemed so much hotter in Salem then it did at our home near the coast in San Diego, and him explaining the moderating effects of the ocean. Of course we tend to remember childhood conversations in adult vocabulary, but that conversation did occur and it was a part of my journey/interest in weather/climate. What I regard as my most fulfilling hobby. If I can help my kids have that, it would be great.

A snowstorm and very cold temps in 1980? Was probably my first taste of what would become an obsession of mine. But the windstorms of Nov. 1981 and the Thanksgiving Day windstorm of 1983 really fueled the fire for me. Nov. 1985 was unbelievable and epic for me...the rest is history! We will see if my daughters will have any of the same weather passion.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One son is very interested in weather.   He has learned to decipher the weather models... and follows them closely in the winter.   He loves snow and cold... and loves warmth and sun in the summer.   He will frequently mock my optimistic clearing forecasts in the summer out of annoyance.    This son is also a big sports fan.

 

My other son does not really care about the weather at all... but he does like snow.   And he has mentioned several times that he wants go to college where "it does not rain every f*cking day".   

 

My daughter lives in the moment and loves everything that happens every single day.   God bless her.         

 

Funny how different twins can be. From a very young age my twins had very distinct personalities. Are your twins identical or fraternal? My girls are fraternal, one has dirty blonde hair the other is full on red head. God help us.  

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully you will eventually be able to instill her with a proper hatred of clouds and rain.

 

 

Too late... she is already turning 9.  

 

And did I mention that my wife and I really do love it here?    My wife tells our kids all the time that they are blessed to grow up in such a beautiful place.   

[TT-SEA]

Funny how different twins can be. From a very young age my twins had very distinct personalities. Are your twins identical or fraternal? My girls are fraternal, one has dirty blonde hair the other is full on red head. God help us.

 

Fraternal... and completely different in so many ways.   

[Jesse]

Too late... she is already turning 9.

 

And did I mention that my wife and I really do love it here? My wife tells our kids all the time that they are blessed to grow up in such a beautiful place.

Been a long time since 2010.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A snowstorm and very cold temps in 1980? Was probably my first taste of what would become an obsession of mine. But the windstorms of Nov. 1981 and the Thanksgiving Day windstorm of 1983 really fueled the fire for me. Nov. 1985 was unbelievable and epic for me...the rest is history! We will see if my daughters will have any of the same weather passion.

 

They may. Part of why I got into weather was my Dad taught me about it and was interested in it. Why I took to weather specifically, when I was exposed to a myriad of scientific disciplines from a very young age is probably its dependence on numbers with which I am fascinated/obsessed with. Having the opportunity to look up January 1952 data for Salem is something I really enjoy. 

 

But if you expose your children to your passion it will at least have a warm place in their heart and be something they at least follow casually and it will remind then of you and be a fond memory. 

[TT-SEA]

Been a long time since 2010.

 

She has said that since we moved here in 2003.

 

But the stress of a new baby and 32 straight days of rain in May/June 2010 did push her to her limit. She really wanted to go back to MN at that time... primarily to be closer to her family but the weather was not helping at all. Winter rain is easier to handle... even if it rains almost every day. But 32 straight days of rain in late May and June is depressing... there is no way around it. Sh*t happens.

[MossMan]

She has said that since we moved here in 2003.

 

But the stress of a new baby and 32 straight days of rain in May/June 2010 did push her to her limit. She really wanted to go back to MN at that time... primarily to be closer to her family but the weather was not helping at all. Winter rain is easier to handle... even if it rains almost every day. But 32 straight days of rain in late May and June is depressing... there is no way around it. Sh*t happens.

Don’t forget the windstorm of Dec. 2006...that was a rough one on you guys.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

She has said that since we moved here in 2003.

 

But the stress of a new baby and 32 straight days of rain in May/June 2010 did push her to her limit. She really wanted to go back to MN at that time... primarily to be closer to her family but the weather was not helping at all. Winter rain is easier to handle... even if it rains almost every day. But 32 straight days of rain in late May and June is depressing... there is no way around it. Sh*t happens.

 

I don't blame anything from sending her over the edge with a new baby. I can't imagine what women go through in that period of time after they have had the baby. Postpartum is real, and both my wives having to give birth via cesarean mad e that all the more tough.  

[MossMan]

I sent a text to my wife, mom, and sister today with a pic of the weather station I would like for Christmas since they constantly ask me what I would like and I always say nothing, get the kids stuff but I am good. Well I decided this year I would throw it out there...and my wife told her mom (yep mom in law is visiting from Arizona) and she said I was being ridiculous and what a waste of money...she clearly does not care about what the current 850’s are at.

[Front Ranger]

SEA is at 1.83" on the day while BFI is at 0.71". Quite a gradient.

 

Yeah, like I said, SEA really overperformed compared to most of the area.

 

Tim made the most of it! 

[Perturbed Member]

Low moving onshore around Cape Blanco over the weekend. Could have some overperformance esp if some d-bands can have good precip rates.

 

A long shot but at least it gives us something to track. Last nights euro also showed a dusting of snow down to low elevations out of that if I recall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I sent a text to my wife, mom, and sister today with a pic of the weather station I would like for Christmas since they constantly ask me what I would like and I always say nothing, get the kids stuff but I am good. Well I decided this year I would throw it out there...and my wife told her mom (yep mom in law is visiting from Arizona) and she said I was being ridiculous and what a waste of money...she clearly does not care about what the current 850’s are at.

 

My wife tolerates my obsession. I try not to regale her with two many statistics from January 1969 or December 1972. She enjoys snow, but is not as excited about it as me, since she grew up in Klamath Falls where snow is pretty common.

[Front Ranger]

A brass monkey?

 

[TT-SEA]

Don’t forget the windstorm of Dec. 2006...that was a rough one on you guys.

 

The flooding in November 2006 was really bad here... something like 25+ inches of rain in 8 or 9 days.    Our road washed out completely and landslides were becoming a serious concern.   We were living on edge for many days.    It is a private road and each family had to pay thousands of dollars for the repair... and we did not have the money.  It really felt like we were going to lose the dream home we just built.   

 

The windstorm and 10-day power outage was annoying but not as stressful.    We just moved up to Bellingham.   Although that sequence of events in a span of 45 days was a bit overwhelming.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The flooding in November 2006 was really bad here... something like 25+ inches of rain in 8 or 9 days.    Our road washed out completely and landslides were becoming a serious concern.   We were living on edge for many days.    It is a private road and each family had to pay thousands of dollars for the repair... and we did not have the money.  It really felt like we were going to lose the dream home we just built.   

 

The windstorm and 10-day power outage was annoying but not as stressful.    We just moved up to Bellingham.   Although that sequence of events in a span of 45 days was a bit overwhelming.  

 

Given that liability you don't have insurance for such an event?

[MossMan]

The flooding in November 2006 was really bad here... something like 25+ inches of rain in 8 or 9 days. Our road washed out completely and landslides were becoming a serious concern. We were living on edge for many days. It is a private road and each family had to pay thousands of dollars for the repair... and we did not have the money. It really felt like we were going to lose the dream home we just built.

 

The windstorm and 10-day power outage was annoying but not as stressful. We just moved up to Bellingham. Although that sequence of events in a span of 45 days was a bit overwhelming.

That really was one hell of a winter.

[El_Nina]

At 6 this morning the rain gauge had 0.65" on the day, now it's up to 1.90". That downpour around 2 must've dropped well over an inch of rain.

[TT-SEA]

Given that liability you don't have insurance for such an event?

 

Landslide or the road washout?

 

It was all new... we did not know what we had at the time. Seems foolish in retrospect. I kept imagining a massive landslide burying us alive so insurance would be irrelevant in that case... and then that actually happened in Oso in March 2014 killing 43 people. Different topography here though... much more rocky here with a lower landslide risk.

 

As a result of that road and bridge washout... our HOA now puts aside a significant part of our dues into an emergency fund. We have built up enough in that account to rebuild the entire road... all 2.5 miles of it. And King County implemented major flood control improvements as well after that event and the January 2009 flood.

 

And the power grid was completely rebuilt after the 2006 windstorm and its all underground to North Bend so we never lose power now.

 

We are in a much better position today thanks to those extreme events.