November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Wouldn’t mind seeing some -12 850’s right about now.

[TT-SEA]

I'm pretty certain that it's OK to track both 500mb pattern progression and 850mb temps.

 

What a pointless debate...

 

No doubt.

 

Justin is either bored or really paranoid today.

 

Give me a choice and I will take below normal 850mb temps from now until Valentines Day in a heartbeat!

[Jesse]

I'm pretty certain that it's OK to track both 500mb pattern progression and 850mb temps.

 

What a pointless debate...

Sign me up for whatever looks reddest (unless it’s a drought map).

[BLI snowman]

Seems like you are bored today.   

 

Colder than normal 850mb temps almost always means good things in the winter.    I am not saying it means snow in your backyard... or even snow in the lowlands at all.   But it is usually better than warm 850mb temps and great for the mountains.    That is why we track it. 

 

Warm 850mb temps will often mean cool sunshine this time of year in the valleys. Weather you claim to enjoy. I don't recall you enjoying January 2006 very much. Interesting logic reversal for the sake of extending a dialogue and having the last word.

[Jesse]

What a huge disappointment today was for rainfall and active weather in the Portland metro. Felt like a mild April day.

[High Desert Mat!]

I would love some -17 850mb temps with a little -38 500 mb temps for a week before xmas please. Sign me up.

[Jesse]

But... but... funnel clouds...

I think there was talk of the NWS recency bias the other day. Today was a good example. Next time they will be overly bearish and an F-5 will strike downtown Monmouth.

[BLI snowman]

I'm pretty certain that it's OK to track both 500mb pattern progression and 850mb temps.

 

What a pointless debate...

 

It is.

 

But one weighs as considerably more important than the other in terms of determining lowland temperatures in the middle of winter. I'm sure even ornery Tim can agree there.

[TT-SEA]

Warm 850mb temps will often mean cool sunshine this time of year in the valleys. Weather you claim to enjoy. I don't recall you enjoying January 2006 very much. Interesting logic reversal for the sake of extending a dialogue and having the last word.

 

 

You are really reaching now.    Just let it go.    You can always find some exception... but I would 100% take below normal 850mb temps from now into February every single day and twice on Sunday!  

 

And I remember lots of great skiing in January 2006... despite the daily rain streak in Seattle.    So it was not all bad.

[TT-SEA]

It is.

 

But one weighs as considerably more important than the other in terms of determining lowland temperatures in the middle of winter. I'm sure even ornery Tim can agree there.

 

 

I did not make any comment about the lowland temperatures!     You are just making something out of literally nothing today.   

 

Don't look at the 850mb temp maps if you think they are totally worthless.   Nobody asked you to chime in with this personal crap.   850mb temps are a critical factor for me in tracking the weather in the winter.     I love to see blue!      

[Jesse]

[Front Ranger]

But... but... funnel clouds...

Portland NWS jinxed it.

[TT-SEA]

Its hard for some people to adjust their trolling with the seasons.    

 

Warm 850mb temps are my enemy at this time of year.    If you want to troll me then mock my love of cold 850mb temps.  

[BLI snowman]

I did not make any comment about the lowland temperatures!     You are just making something out of literally nothing today.   

 

Don't look at the 850mb temp maps if you think they are totally worthless.   Nobody asked you to chime in with this personal crap.   850mb temps are a critical factor for me in tracking the weather in the winter.     I love to see blue!      

 

Not totally worthless. Just relatively meaningless when taken at face value in December. It is what it is. We can all certainly agree that snow is cool.

[MossMan]

It is.

 

But one weighs as considerably more important than the other in terms of determining lowland temperatures in the middle of winter. I'm sure even ornery Tim can agree there.

Can’t make a Bellingham International Airport Snowman without -850’s.

[Deweydog]

People flying out of PDX and SEA were probably curious why there was so much turbulence as they passed through flight level 50 this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Not totally worthless. Just relatively meaningless when taken at face value in December. It is what it is. We can all certainly agree that snow is cool.

Not meaningless at all. Very meaningful to me and others. I will continue to track it and cheer for blue... or better yet purple!

 

The upcoming 5-10 day period looks quite lovely and its blue. The 10-15 day period will probably be very wet... and messy in the mountains... and the 850mb map will be red.

[BLI snowman]

I think you are making a point that, while valid, is pretty common knowledge around here. Negative 850mb temps does not magically mean it will snow. Given most people's experience with this shi**y climate, I would think everyone is aware of this.

 

Does that mean that hoping for negative 850mb temps is pointless? No, as that is often (not always) one piece of a 2000-piece puzzle that must be put together in order to get a snowflake.

 

No one said it's pointless.

 

But I think most of us would still prefer colder weather in the winter in the absence of snow. The pattern going forward looks fairly chilly for awhile, regardless of the snow implications or 850mb temps. It also feels pretty obvious we won't be scoring a slam dunk pattern in the next couple weeks, so I guess I don't see much point in fretting about the 850mb details until the bigger picture comes back into play.

[TT-SEA]

No one said it's pointless.

 

But I think most of us would still prefer colder weather in the winter in the absence of snow. The pattern going forward looks fairly chilly for awhile, regardless of the snow implications or 850mb temps. It also feels pretty obvious we won't be scoring a slam dunk pattern in the next couple weeks, so I guess I don't see much point in fretting about the 850mb details until the bigger picture comes back into play.

Posting the 850mb maps from the EPS is not fretting. It is what it is. And people ask for the maps if I don't post them.

[BLI snowman]

Not meaningless at all.   Very meaningful to me and others.   I will continue to track it and cheer for blue... or better yet purple!    

 

The upcoming 5-10 day period looks quite lovely and its blue.    The 10-15 day period will probably we very wet... and messy in the mountains... and the 850mb map will be red.  

 

We'll see, the active stuff seems to be getting pushed back a bit. And I pretty much enjoy December's weather regardless. Easily my favorite month here, weatherwise. Either it's cool/sunny or wet/active. That's fine either way.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not totally worthless. Just relatively meaningless when taken at face value in December. It is what it is. We can all certainly agree that snow is cool.

Are we done now?  

[Deweydog]

It's November 27th.

 

And that remains true at 500mb, 850mb AND 1000mb.

[TT-SEA]

SEA picked up .30 last hour.

 

SEA is now up to 2.37 inches for this storm.

 

And well over 4 inches for the month now... only 1.30 inches below normal at this point.    And more heavy rain is moving into SEA now.

 

We are making up ground fast!  

[BLI snowman]

Posting the 850mb maps from the EPS is not fretting. It is what it is. And people ask for the maps if I don't post them.

 

And posting 500mb maps would give an even better picture to the actual pattern. Nothing wrong with posting more maps, as opposed to less. I think we all agree that those are nice to have, and really do appreciate you posting them when it's done objectively.

[TT-SEA]

And posting 500mb maps would give an even better picture to the actual pattern. Nothing wrong with posting more maps, as opposed to less. I think we all agree that those are nice to have, and really do appreciate you posting them when it's done objectively.

I have made no comments recently about the EPS maps.

 

I will add 500mb maps as well next time.

[luvssnow_spokane]

No one said it's pointless.

 

But I think most of us would still prefer colder weather in the winter in the absence of snow. The pattern going forward looks fairly chilly for awhile, regardless of the snow implications or 850mb temps. It also feels pretty obvious we won't be scoring a slam dunk pattern in the next couple weeks, so I guess I don't see much point in fretting about the 850mb details until the bigger picture comes back into play.

Big Picture: -- I bet there will be a lot of low-level cooler weather and some snow under all that purple and blue. 

 

[BLI snowman]

Are we done now?  

 

With snow this winter? Probably.

[BLI snowman]

I have made no comments recently about the EPS maps.

 

I will add 500mb maps as well next time.

 

Cool, much appreciated 

[Phil]

The entire fall pattern in 1987 was very different.

 

cd2603_300b_503_1800_e527_33ad_2fd8_6ea8.330.15.50.24.prcp.png

 

90dTDeptUS.png

 

 

And the rest of what I said still applies, too. Not a good match in terms of ENSO (much stronger, second year) or solar.

 

In addition, the Pacific was in a much different state in 1987, with raging, record-level +PDO.

Keep in mind that 1987 went +ENSO in a big way during the summer months, while 2018 is a slow evolution that has yet to establish a dominant low frequency mode. So you’ll find fewer similarities in the summer and early autumn months versus those still to come.

 

Also, if this isn’t a +PDO, I don’t know what is.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS:

 

5-10 day period...

 

 

10-15 day period...

 

 

 

Corresponding 500mb maps:

 

5-10 day period...

 

 

10-15 day period...

 

[Phil]

Keep in mind that 1987 went +ENSO in a big way during the summer months, while 2018 is a slow evolution that has yet to establish a dominant low frequency mode. So you’ll find fewer similarities in the summer and early autumn months versus those still to come.

 

Also, if this isn’t a +PDO, I don’t know what is.

 

You have no business rejecting 1987/88 while touting a bunch of 1950’s analogs.

 

Let’s be rational about this.

[MossMan]

My prediction is that tonight’s 0z’s will be the start of a trend that will lead to greatness!

[stuffradio]

My prediction is that tonight’s 0z’s will be the start of a trend that will lead to greatness!

1950! I told my dad a few days ago I think 1950 was the coldest here in Maple Ridge, and he thinks in the 80s there was actually a colder period than the ~-4F that we got up here in 1950. Not sure if he's right or not.

[Blizzard777]

SEA picked up .30 last hour.

 

SEA is now up to 2.37 inches for this storm.

 

And well over 4 inches for the month now... only 1.30 inches below normal at this point.    And more heavy rain is moving into SEA now.

 

We are making up ground fast!

 

Another band about to add to it! My station report so far for today

[Phil]

So close. This is the wildcard in the long term.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018112718&fh=-48

[Phil]

500mb heights and 850mb temperatures actually tell you the same thing about the pattern.

 

They just need to be interpreted correctly.

[Blizzard777]

Not much BUT their it is ....frozen precip showing up in forecast

[Phil]

Looks like the winds finally switched to light southerly at PDX. Those offshore winds were slow to give up.

Looks like they haven’t given up yet!

[Deweydog]

500mb heights and 850mb temperatures actually tell you the same thing about the pattern.

 

They just need to be interpreted correctly.

Hell yeah!!!

 

Let's keep this party going!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Keep in mind that 1987 went +ENSO in a big way during the summer months, while 2018 is a slow evolution that has yet to establish a dominant low frequency mode. So you’ll find fewer similarities in the summer and early autumn months versus those still to come.

 

Also, if this isn’t a +PDO, I don’t know what is.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying this is a negative PDO, but t is not the classic +PDO.  Certainly looks to be more positive though.   A classic +PDO would have negative anomalies in the NW Pacific, like this:

 

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_warm_cool3.jpg