Tom Posted November 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Remember that ridiculous gradient in the November 2015 storm? Like 11" at ORD and 1" in downtown Chicago. I'm not saying we'll see that again but ORD's far northwest location *could* end up making a significant difference. We'll see.Yup, I remember that one real well...not only that, but the dynamics with this system are awesome. Today’s runs have shown what I anticipated, as long as this system maintains its strength, it’ll allow the atmosphere to cool better the closer you are to the SLP. You can see the colder 850’s showing up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Lol, if it comes to getting 5-6 inches here in Omaha I'll take it. Biggest in years. But a word of caution to anyone just east of here, this thing has been modeled on the ensembles still as going way north and some even no storm at all. This seems like the tricksters storm so dont get your hopes up too fast! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 check out the max--- 25"+ that avg's to 1" an hour for 24 hours. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Tom you’re gonna reel this baby in. Book it buddy. Wait a minute! You said I was... :lol: Seriously tho, NAM's gonna be HOTNESS for SMI and a NAM-EURO team-up's a great thing this season. Somebody's gonna get slammered! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Yup, I remember that one real well...not only that, but the dynamics with this system are awesome. Today’s runs have shown what I anticipated, as long as this system maintains its strength, it’ll allow the atmosphere to cool better the closer you are to the SLP. You can see the colder 850’s showing up. You called it buddy! Compared to Nov '15 this will be a beast of a storm for whomever the (holiday) bell tolls. Lakeshore warmth will ofc hinder, as it did even in Nov storms of yore in the Northland, but to say I'm now getting pumped would be an understatement. Traveling now for the dinner plans so I won't be here til later tonight for the 0z runs. Enjoy! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 NAVY still going way south 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 wow who thought I'd get missed south! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 South is the trend this early season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 NAVY still going way south I have noticed that but not sure how good this model is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 850's stay below 0C from the south side of Chicago on that run...once the real heavy precip begins, temps are in low 30's (ish) but crash throughout the event which I'd imagine would produce better snow production. Man, that defo band looks redic...I'll say this, I'm more optimistic today than yesterday for Chitown. 12z guidance thus far suggests a southern trend since yesterday's 12z suite. Long ways away till I'm fully on board. Fun to look at though. At Hoosier, I totally agree with you regarding the heavier stuff being in the NW burbs as is the case with these early season systems. The Euro is suggesting 45-55 mph wind gusts along the shore for 12+ hours.Can you show the snow total further west if you get a chance?! Thanks in advance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 I have noticed that but for sure how good this model is.I have NEVER seen the Navgem or Nogaps mentioned EVER in an AFD. The model is being discontinued early 2019' and replaced with the Sea Air and Land model. HA!! ) 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Extended cold on FV3 GFS over the next few weeks is impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Can you show the snow total further west if you get a chance?! Thanks in advance!You are about 2-3” I am around 3” on the Euro. More west and southeast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Can you show the snow total further west if you get a chance?! Thanks in advance!Aren’t you in Shelby? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Looks about right 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 12z EPS ticked south with the heaviest precip and snowfall....ORD snow mean now up to 3-4" with more the farther NW you go...6"+ mean trended SE as well....DSM still looks great into E IA/S WI...LNK/OMA still sitting at comfy 4" mean, N MO looking better also....Jaster's area now in the 2-3" mean with more the farther north you go in MI. @ Gable, here you are... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Aren’t you in Shelby?Yep, I have been missed in all directions so far hoping to cash in with at least 3. Your right, the FV3 gfs is awesome to look at with the long range snow forecast!! I would take half that and be happy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Have to wonder if this is just a blip or if the trend is real Anyways pretty impressive looking system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 I didn't see anyone post the Ukie or JMA today...south trend in those models as well...12z UKIE takes a track just south of KC/STL/INDY/DTX.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 @ Gable, here you are...Thanks Tom!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Yep, I have been missed in all directions so far hoping to cash in with at least 3. Your right, the FV3 gfs is awesome to look at with the long range snow forecast!! I would take half that and be happy.I had to look at the weather.us snow depth map. Nice of Tom to post also. Still may be some changes ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 I had to look at the weather.us snow depth map. Nice of Tom to post also. Still may be some changes ahead.Ya I did too but I like those other maps better. Always nice for everyone to share that! I wouldn’t be surprised to start seeing watches being posted this evening or tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 I didn't see anyone post the Ukie or JMA today...south trend in those models as well...12z UKIE takes a track just south of KC/STL/INDY/DTX.... Nice stripe for Omaha folks! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Northern stream system is gonna be key in this 18z nam moves it much faster and NE this run. The other models were slower and south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Nam is slower overall vs 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Nam is slower overall vs 12zSlower and the northern stream is much faster. This should go north a good bit this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 I like the 18z NAM. Shares snow across Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 18z Nam very good for Omaha and Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Wow the NAM run slowed way down and dropped a bomb over Omaha. Even with that more southern track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112218/084/snku_acc.us_c.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112218/084/snku_acc.us_c.png Here come the lolipop runs... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 The NAM / Euro and FV3 are by FAR the most consistent. The CAN is a close 2nd. The others are lost/confused. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Here come the lolipop runs...Holy !!!!! I like it! LOL Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Holy s**t!!!!! I like it! LOLjust remember -- it's 18Z which is usually overdone in these situations across the board by at least 20%. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 just remember -- it's 18Z which is usually overdone in these situations across the board by at least 20%. Yep lol nice to see though. 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 The NAM is also probably overdoing QPF as it often does, but its track solution may be worth something. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 Ik we are talking this storm but looking at the far out fv3 that's alot of snow wow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 22, 2018 Report Share Posted November 22, 2018 I saw this posted from the Euro which really shows the moisture content of this storm. This is all snow by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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