East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Oh god 39hr RAP. I think we can count on it to have the 100% right idea. Jokes aside, the point of higher res models being further south is worrying for CR and backs the euro. Honestly as much as the FV3 has been consistent, with the info available now, I feel like discounting it is the best move.I wouldn’t say to totally discount the GFS/FV3, but it’s probably smart to lean towards all the other guidance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Oh god 39hr RAP. I think we can count on it to have the 100% right idea. Jokes aside, the point of higher res models being further south is worrying for CR and backs the euro. Honestly as much as the FV3 has been consistent, with the info available now, I feel like discounting it is the best move.Yeah that’s what I was getting at. Usually short term models are amped up and way too far north at this range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Yeah that’s what I was getting at. Usually short term models are amped up and way too far north at this range.Maybe it’s amping up the northern stream too much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Really? Dont look at rap or hrrr until sat nightSeeing where the CAMs are trending is valuable info and while no individual run should be used, seeing where they are overall can be worth something. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Really? Dont look at rap or hrrr until sat nightIt’s not a bad idea to see how things are looking further west, as it could give an idea of which model has been handling it best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 It’s also good to see how the northern stream system is trending on it considering that’s within its range 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Right. Good points. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 h60 UKmet wants to drown me with qpf. Be gr8 if it were snow 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I’m assuming the HRRR is just doing long range things, or otherwise the SLP is going to be in a much different position than some models are projecting haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 FV3 throwing bout 4-5 at me. Foot in the neighbor's yard. Every other model basically no flakes. Crazy stuff. That northern edge is tight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Actually GFS OP looks ok up here too I guess but yeah GFS camp on its own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Even the GEFS seems to largely disagree with its own op, not looking good for the FV3 or the GFS. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Actually GFS OP looks ok up here too I guess but yeah GFS camp on its own. GEFS has many members at odds with the Operational. Actually gives me a bit of encouragement to hang in here on this one. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Even the GEFS seems to largely disagree with its own op, not looking good for the FV3 or the GFS. There’s a decent amount that are further north. Certainly not a consensus. But I do expect the GFS/VF3 to continue to move south come the morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Agree with the others who think slim/no chance of Dr.No differing from Uncle Ukie. They both do excellent in situations like this and almost always mirror each other. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 There’s a decent amount that are further north. Certainly not a consensus. But I do expect the GFS/VF3 to continue to move south come the morning. If they do, those on the northern edge of the snow shield are gonna feel burned. As I have this afternoon watching most guidance shift back north. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Euro remaining south, 3-5 Lincoln, 2-4 Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Euro staying put. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Ukie and euro nearly identical at 48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Maybe advisory around 30 corridor in IA and warning I80 south. Thats my guess with current trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Last system shifted north last minute, maybe this one will also and make GFS look good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Last system shifted north last minute, maybe this one will also and make GFS look good Refresh my memory. Which last system? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 My first call for Hiawatha is a frankly pathetic 1-3”, 5-8” in IC 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 In other words, I’m ready to call it here despite the GFS. Maybe too early, but I don’t see the GFS pulling through when it’s own ensemble doesn’t even agree. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Last system shifted north last minute, maybe this one will also and make GFS look goodMight be referring to a system on the 17th that gave basically freak snows to much of S.IA. Parts got 5-7" when only 1-3 was expected and the NWS DMX had to add two row of counties to the N the to WWA at the last minute / during the event. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Yeah EURO did not change much at all. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Might be referring to a system on the 17th that gave basically freak snows to much of S.IA. Parts got 5-7" when only 1-3 was expected and the NWS DMX had to add two row of counties to the N the to WWA at the last minute / during the event. Yeah, prolly that one. Was a surprise 0.5" here as well. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Don't have the maps, but hearing Euro DESTROYS Chicago-land? Worst conditions since GHD-1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Can someone post the euro so I can cry myself to sleep Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 CHI gets crushed. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Scary gradient in Lancaster county... Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Scary gradient in Lancaster county...Strange how the gradient always seems to end up right in Lancaster County. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Tom may reel this one in last minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Tom may reel this one in last minute. I'm here tugging this end of the rope too - sorry Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Gonna come down to transition from rain to snow imo going off the euro. Looking at nw Nebraska into se Nebraska that cut off I think is the model depicting the transition zone. I think we do better area wide than what’s being shown with the euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Can someone post the euro so I can cry myself to sleep ..and I can have sweet dreams of reading the morning AFD's while sipping my Starbucks. Cruel cruel hobby this wx biz Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 CHI gets crushed. ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-96-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png Chicago-land no doubt will do well in that map, but the city proper has a giant bath tub full of warm lake water to deal with. I was there in the Loop with my fiance' on Dec 1st of '08 when there were WSWarnings going. It rained or rained some mush flakes in the loop. As we headed home to Marshall, we didn't see snow really until we got near Michigan City IN. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 A couple more Euro color maps I found. Holy Toledo if it were to pan out. 2 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 06Z Nam is juiced-- much more QPF. But 06Z Nam's love to amp systems. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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