March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[Geos]

I'll tell you what Geos, I don't put in much of any faith in long range forecasts. The LRC is a nice tool, but yeah I normally don't look out past 1 week. I guess I have been noticing a trend lately on the GFS at least for showing a lot of precip here in Nebraska the last week in March and into April and when you've had the winter we've had, we tend to grasp at anything  Tom has been saying the LRC points to an active period during that time frame, but if the LRC is a repeating pattern, than we shouldn't get anything since we have missed out almost all winter

 

Well everything starts moving positions in Spring though. So the pattern might repeat itself, but it could shift west, east or north with time. Southern jet should start having more influence next month. (inching northwards)

[East Dubzz]

Some better returns have actually developed over the area. Seeing some nice light rain right now. I'll be able to give an amount when I leave for school in the morning.

[Sciascia]

A bit late, but Skilling had snow for Mon/Tues with highs between 31-34. I think he mentioned it being one to watch, but I was having a conversation at the time, so may have misheard.

[Geos]

Borderline RN here with -fog. 38° 

A nice change from the same ol' weather. Lot of birds singing already.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like I finished with about .10" of rain. Didn't think it would be too much more. Had some nice rain pass through late last night, but it looked like after that we were going to get dry slotted, and I assume that's what happened as the SLP passed through.

[Madtown]

.12" here. Do I make the drive to Minneapolis Thurs night or Fri morning? What say you?

[Geos]

.12" here. Do I make the drive to Minneapolis Thurs night or Fri morning? What say you?

 

Dry and probably with rising temperatures that night.

 

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Socked in with fog pretty good along the lakeshore right now.

[gosaints]

Unless you like weak sauce clippers the GFS is boring.  Actually turns up and down seasonal middle of next week

[Madtown]

Snow sleet mix for about the last 30 min or so, fog has lifted.

[Geos]

Unless you like weak sauce clippers the GFS is boring.  Actually turns up and down seasonal middle of next week

 

I see that one on Tuesday.

 

Beyond that it looks pretty zonal except for one cool shot.

[East Dubzz]

Saw some snow for a little bit here around 9 and lasted maybe half an hour. Came down at a decent rate for a little bit. Obviously, nothing stuck to the ground, except maybe a couple spots on the ground, but melted already.

[Geos]

Near 40° at UGN, so pretty mild for snow still. Band that came through by you East Dubzz is drying out as it heads east. Still a little foggy here in Racine.

[tim the weatherman]

just looked out and i have little snow piles around and by early to mid week will be cold for nextweek and after that zonal flow will be bringing pacific air in.

[Geos]

About 0.20" fell at home this morning.

[tim the weatherman]

according to accuweather that next week will be colder the week after we will have seasonal temps and the 2nd week of april we will have normal to above normal temps temps.

[Tom]

The 1st potential 60 degree day of the year is on the way Friday.  I could see Spring Fever in full effect Friday afternoon.  Without a doubt you'll see ppl in their drop-top convertibles cruisin' around blasting music.  I'm sure tons of ppl will be out enjoying this weather since it wont last too long.

[Geos]

Temp has been steady basically all day (daylight hours). Didn't notice any backlash rain or snow in Racine.

 

EURO kept 98% of the snow north of the WI/IL border on this entire run.

 

[MKEstorm]

The 1st potential 60 degree day of the year is on the way Friday. I could see Spring Fever in full effect Friday afternoon. Without a doubt you'll see ppl in their drop-top convertibles cruisin' around blasting music. I'm sure tons of ppl will be out enjoying this weather since it wont last too long.

 

My forecast only calls for 47...and I'm sure it will adjust lower as we get closer! No convertibles for me

[Geos]

Today was one of the more dark and gloomy days of the month. Peaked at 41°. Getting kind of windy out there now.

[MKEstorm]

Today was one of the more dark and gloomy days of the month. Peaked at 41°. Getting kind of windy out there now.

 

Yes! It was terrible

[DominicR]

Ah beautiful out right now. Reminds me of my childhood. IDK hard to complain but type of weather that makes me passionate. To cold or to warm makes me irate.

[DominicR]

I meant air.

[Geos]

Ah beautiful out right now. Reminds me of my childhood. IDK hard to complain but type of weather that makes me passionate. To cold or to warm makes me irate.

 

Haha. It is a nice change. Not even below freezing yet.

 

Can actually smell the dampness outside. ... well actually earlier more so.

Should be able to open the windows Friday.

[DominicR]

I am ready to get a tan and 90s GEOS.

[DominicR]

Ouch mid 30's early next week. When will this ever end. Looks like no snow at least.

[tim the weatherman]

Ouch mid 30's early next week. When will this ever end. Looks like no snow at least.

after nextweek when the polar vortex collapses.

[Geos]

I am ready to get a tan and 90s GEOS.

 

I'd go into shock if it warmed that quickly! 

 

Ouch mid 30's early next week. When will this ever end. Looks like no snow at least.

 

Well, we're getting closer to April at least.

[Tom]

I still think the GFS is out to lunch with the pattern in the long range.  Both EURO/CFSv2 support another arctic blast last days of March into the 1st week of April.  LRC also fits with the set up as we head into April.  EURO ensembles also showing a couple cutters last days of March and one during the 1st week in April.  Cold follows each storm and fits with the SW Flow that is anticipated to develop last week of March into April.

 

Still seeing SSW at 10mb & 30mb right over the pole and in Siberia that support the idea of more late season arctic blasts with cross polar flow.   I'm unable to post the CFSv2 week 3 temp map but it's showing anomalously cold air invading the Midwest/Lakes region.  Still not out of the woods for snow storms.  AO is also poised to settle near neutral which would support storm development and blocking, reversing its +AO trend.

[Geos]

Once the stratospheric vortex is dead the troposphere version will follow the same demise quickly and then blocking will check out until next year. 2-4 weeks is a good gauge on how long we have before the cold air masses quit coming down.

[Tom]

I agree, we most likely have till about mid April to see some true wintry weather.  It will let up in April and not as intense as it has been in March, but wouldn't discount small scale rouge snow systems in late April like last year.

[Geos]

I just noticed the 18z GFS never finished its run. Stopped at 174 hours.

 

And now the 0z run hasn't even started... on the ncep site.

[Money]

Both 18z and 0z GFs showing a swath of 4-7 inches of snow from W WI through most of S. WI with  more further west you head around the HR 126-138 period

[tim the weatherman]

Once the stratospheric vortex is dead the troposphere version will follow the same demise quickly and then blocking will check out until next year. 2-4 weeks is a good gauge on how long we have before the cold air masses quit coming down.

i agree geos andrew at the weather centre said on tuesday evening on a post that the polar vortex is collapsing and we are going thru the final warming in the stratosphere so that means that winter is ending soon and that means that the blocking goes with it too.

[Geos]

i agree geos andrew at the weather centre said on tuesday evening on a post that the polar vortex is collapsing and we are going thru the final warming in the stratosphere so that means that winter is ending soon and that means that the blocking goes with it too.

 

Yeah I'm sure he'll do an update pretty soon as well.

 

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Looks like some sort of lake influence on the snow totals on the GFS. 2" line barely touches it.

[Geos]

Nice comparison between last year, 2012, and this year so far.

 

 

[Tom]

It has really sky rocketed as of late and has been rather persistent since January and almost in a step ladder formation.  It's just reaching its peak intensity and last year it reached peak intensity end of January.  We may be dealing with cold farther out into Spring.

[Steblow]

cold for months yet...

 

i agree geos andrew at the weather centre said on tuesday evening on a post that the polar vortex is collapsing and we are going thru the final warming in the stratosphere so that means that winter is ending soon and that means that the blocking goes with it too.

 

 

what blocking.. there has been zero all winter

[East Dubzz]

On a side note, they made a discovery tonight that goes a long way in proving the Big Bang Theory (the actual scientific theory, not the show )... Was expecting to see it from a science geek in another forum, but guess they hadn't got to it yet. Google if, it's some pretty interesting stuff, and I really don't even understand it lol.

[East Dubzz]

So apparently is snowed overnight...

[East Dubzz]

Dubuque got 1.5"!!... Was not expecting that..