12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

[East Dubzz]

No huge difference on the gfs so far through 48

Definitely different by Hr 66, though.

[Money]

Definitely different by Hr 66, though.

Yeah by 66 it’s father west but it’s also colder back our way

[St Paul Storm]

Definite trend to the west

[Tom]

ICON says hello Chi-town next Tue

 

It’s odd that the GFS/ICON are seeing this secondary wave consistently but the Euro has not. Someone will cave and I think it’s gonna be the Euro. Hopefully tonight’s 00z run shows it.

[CentralNebWeather]

That location would normally be producing a lot of precipitation across Nebraska on the GFS

[GDR]

South Dakota special on the gfs

[Minny_Weather]

Like I said earlier, you really can't rely on models to nail down temperatures until the time comes. We have seen time and time again this year where temperatures end up being as much as a few degrees warmer or colder than models advertised all along. Remember how during the 10/14 storm it was supposed to be non-accumulating due to air temps well above freezing and it ended up being in the upper 20s and powdery by the time all was said and done? I'm throwing in the towel on models but I'm not gonna give up the storm until the time comes.

[Money]

It’s odd that the GFS/ICON are seeing this secondary wave consistently but the Euro has not. Someone will cave and I think it’s gonna be the Euro. Hopefully tonight’s 00z run shows it.

Gfs just caved

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well the GFS went even further north for Saturday lol. Personally I would rather have the storm missing by a whole lot then by a few counties. So the further away the better

[GDR]

South Dakota and Chicagoland special on the icon

[Minny_Weather]

GEM and ICON look similar regarding the second wave. ICON is maybe a bit farther South though.

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS says what 2nd storm. Amazing that models can be so different

[St Paul Storm]

GEM with a 982mb in IA.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GEM looks like a miss to the south with Mondays system. At least south of Nebraska.

[Stormhunter87]

Like I said earlier, you really can't rely on models to nail down temperatures until the time comes. We have seen time and time again this year where temperatures end up being as much as a few degrees warmer or colder than models advertised all along. Remember how during the 10/14 storm it was supposed to be non-accumulating due to air temps well above freezing and it ended up being in the upper 20s and powdery by the time all was said and done? I'm throwing in the towel on models but I'm not gonna give up the storm until the time comes.

I agree with this quite a bit. 10/14 was a huge miss until about 24 hrs before the storm. One model picked up the change.

[Tom]

Gfs just caved

Might be just a bad run...now the GGEM is seeing it...so I'll have to wait and see when I get up tomorrow what the Euro is showing....

[jaster220]

GEM looks like a miss to the south with Mondays system. At least south of Nebraska.

 

Stuck @ h102, but looks like it may end up ok for Lwr Lakes

[jaster220]

GEM's prolly on the phone with GRR being told it better not come our way

[Niko]

My area could see an inch of rainfall from this system. Flooding could be a concern. Tbh, would not be surprise if t'sms occur also. WOw!

[Money]

Ukie is a no go on the second wave

[gabel23]

Ukie is a no go on the second wave

How does it favor with the other models in terms of position and temps?

[East Dubzz]

This sure is gonna be a nice little rain event. The DVN mentioned some possible thunderstorms south of I-80. Wish it would extend further north to this area. If I’m not gonna get snow, I’d like some rumbles of thunder at least.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is surprisingly not that bad after the rains for quite a few on here.

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

Not that bad? The freezing line literally doesn't move 30 miles to my west. Wow lol.

[Grizzcoat]

Not everyone-- but quite a few.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Sorry In advance to everyone here, if your getting snow and I'm not, I cant be happy for you. Its nothing personal lol.

[clintbeed1993]

Sorry In advance to everyone here, if your getting snow and I'm not, I cant be happy for you. Its nothing personal lol.

 

Shut up Craig.  King EURO FTW.  Looks beautiful for Central Nebraska and it's been the most consistent.  I think the GFS crashes and burns again and NAM trends towards the EURO tomorrow.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Shut up Craig.  King EURO FTW.  Looks beautiful for Central Nebraska and it's been the most consistent.  I think the GFS crashes and burns again and NAM trends towards the EURO tomorrow.

[ToastedRavs]

Sorry In advance to everyone here, if your getting snow and I'm not, I cant be happy for you. Its nothing personal lol.

 

There is a complaint thread solely made for you (& others who need to whine/complain/vent). I kindly suggest you use that to voice your displeasure in the future. Many thanks from many of us!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Sorry lol, got carried away.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z NAM decent shift S. Where have we seen this before?

[Grizzcoat]

Could it be that the areas that received the heavy snow just a few days ago in IA that this time they just miss out to the snow to the N?  Nature usually evens itself out in the long run ; maybe this time in the short run.

 

[clintbeed1993]

06Z NAM decent shift S. Where have we seen this before?USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif

 

I called this a few hours ago.  EURO has been king and there's no reason to think this will be different. It might be slightly further North than it's showing right now, but GFS is likely out to lunch once again.  I see the NAM continuing to creep south throughout today.

[Money]

It always gives me doubt when the nam is the weakest and farthest south. It’s almost always amped up and north at this range

[Stormhunter87]

It's crazy how well the euro preforms. Even with the updated GFS you would think that the American models would perform a little bit better.

[GDR]

[Grizzcoat]

No real mention of a S trend in regional AFD's this morning. OMX did mention adding a row of counties further S with expected snow further S but that was about it.

Would appreciate if some of you cold post updates when the 12Z guidance comes in later today. Will be on the road. Thanks in advance and good luck with this system. I got good vibes on this FWIW.

[james1976]

I'm on the edge again with that Euro Haha. Watch for counties just to my west and north.