van city Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 #384forlife#384forlifeThat's what we live for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Long hair on women drive me crazy! Did you happen to catch Ciara cheering on Russell Wilson at the game on Monday night? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Don’t look now, but here’s the last frame of the 18z GEFS mean for 850mb temp anomalies. Quite a signal for 384hrs out! #CueTheJawsMusic 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Don’t look now, but here’s the last frame of the 18z GEFS mean for 850mb temp anomalies. Quite a signal for 384hrs out! #CueTheJawsMusic Jaws music for Montana and Minnesota? They know how to deal with cold in the middle of the winter. I know... I know... it will retrograde right over us. Got it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 The cold blob actually intensifies and expands southwestward from D12 to D16, which is unusual for an ensemble mean. Usually, ensemble means will dampen pattern variability exponentially with time. So when you see an intensifying signal at-range (especially 2 weeks out) it’s worth paying attention to. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 The cold blob actually intensifies and expands southwestward from D12 to D16, which is unusual for an ensemble mean. Usually, ensemble means will dampen pattern variability exponentially with time. So when you see an intensifying signal at-range (especially 2 weeks out) it’s worth paying attention to. Don't do this to us... Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 ^^ Watch the TPV migrate from Baffin Island to Alberta from D12 to D16. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that on an ensemble mean at this range before. Whether or not it verifies is yet to be determined, obviously. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Sorry brother, but I have a hunch. This is the start of the model madness. You don’t see this type of (strengthening) cold signal on the GEFS very often, especially this far out. Its good information... I like when you have a hunch. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 With Phil it's always about 3 weeks out. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 With Phil it's always about 3 weeks out.That might also be nature's fault! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 What exactly is the WRF useful for? I like what it shows, a wishcaster's dream. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Don’t look now, but here’s the last frame of the 18z GEFS mean for 850mb temp anomalies.Quite a signal for 384hrs out! #CueTheJawsMusic384 with jaws music changes everything 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 If there was already a build-up of Arctic air in Canada right now (before the retrograding waves initiate), then this would have very high potential. Much higher than last February. But this time, thanks to the raging jet, Canada is a complete furnace beforehand. How quickly the source regions can “recover” is the big question in my mind. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 What exactly is the WRF useful for? I like what it shows, a wishcaster's dream. Very good at busting and crushing your hopes and dreams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 And the MJO timing is perfect for once. Propagating towards the Maritime continent/IPWP right as wave-1 maxes out. Last February it was in phase-8 (WHEM) when you guys got your wintry stretch. And back in 2013, it was in phase-7 (dateline/warm pool forcing). This timing actually..perfect. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/CANM_phase_20m_small.gif 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Very good at busting and crushing your hopes and dreams. I figured! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Pic from today. This is a ridge above my place. 5000ft. Right now there is 9 inches at this spot and last year same time there was 25. Snow is really behind this year. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 So this one is actually more interesting to me now than either of the last two events were, as far as western cold is concerned. Again, there’s really only one question, and that’s the extent of the damage the ongoing jet extension does to the source region. Would be a pathetic way to screw it up. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 But honestly, I think tomorrow could be very blustery even for PDX. 35-45 mph gusts perhaps? As most models are trending the low more south (Central rather than N. Vancouver Island). Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 And the 12z CMC ensembles paint a similar picture. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 I'm having "384" tattooed across my back. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 I'm having "384" tattooed across my back.Tramp stamp is the best option! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 I'm having "384" tattooed across my back.Of course you should never take the extended range stuff at face value. That would be absurd. But it’s a window with much higher potential. That much we can derive. Keep in mind the reason(s) we run these perturbed ensembles. They help us isolate modeled weather/climate anomalies with a higher degree of statistical certainty. So when you see highly anomalous wave structures being modeled with *increasing* amplitudes at-range (which runs against statistical norms for ensemble spreads), and across multiple models, it’s something to watch. Also, given the known factors (SSW and developing Maritime MJO wave) there is foundational support for an interesting period, as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Did you happen to catch Ciara cheering on Russell Wilson at the game on Monday night? I actually did see this part but it was too blurry for me to make out. Wilson is one lucky guy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 This has to be the most advertised and anticipated Sudden Stratosphere Warming event in history. #SSWAfter what happened last year, everyone is becoming stratosphere junkie now. I’m especially looking forward to the insane model swings that will envelop the wx-weeniesphere over the coming weeks. Gonna be madness.I can honestly say that this is the most excited I've ever been in my life for an incoming SSW event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 And the MJO timing is perfect for once. Propagating towards the Maritime continent/IPWP right as wave-1 maxes out. Last February it was in phase-8 (WHEM) when you guys got your wintry stretch. And back in 2013, it was in phase-7 (dateline/warm pool forcing). This timing actually..perfect. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/CANM_phase_20m_small.gifFor sake of discussion, I fear we will barely miss our window of opportunity. Seems as though once the floodgates actually open, forcing will be pushing into the W Pac. You're obviously much more knowledgeable than I am, so please explain where my thinking is flawed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Of course you should never take the extended range stuff at face value. That would be absurd. But it’s a window with much higher potential. That much we can derive. Keep in mind the reason(s) we run these perturbed ensembles. They help us isolate modeled weather/climate anomalies with a higher degree of statistical certainty. So when you see highly anomalous wave structures being modeled with *increasing* amplitudes at-range (which runs against statistical norms for ensemble spreads), and across multiple models, it’s something to watch. Also, given the known factors (SSW and developing Maritime MJO wave) there is foundational support for an interesting period, as well.Feels like we'll be ripe for some manner of blocking around New Year's. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 For sake of discussion, I fear we will barely miss our window of opportunity. Seems as though once the floodgates actually open, forcing will be pushing into the W Pac. You're obviously much more knowledgeable than I am, so please explain where my thinking is flawedIt’s not necessarily flawed. But keep in mind the communication between the tropics and extratropics goes both ways. Extratropical forcings affect the MJO structure and how it is communicated, and vice versa. Convection near/over the IPWP is an efficient conduit to mass deposition across the NPAC in of itself (not to mention EAMT feedback), and there’s no necessity that the domain of divergence be constrained to within such a small range of longitude. Half of the issue is how the forcing is received peripherally, and that is of course wholly state-dependent. In the case of 2018, we had an incredible, globally-integrated +MT/AAM uptake event late in November which has climaxed and is now terminating following the poleward propagation of the axis of received momentum via eddy transport. Looking forward, we have an extended stretch of -EAMT upcoming, which is like whiplash to the integrated state of momentum balance and will displace a crapload of mass into the NPAC and play on the waves’ phase speeds in conjunction with the intraseasinal forcing. And with the SSW feedback via the accelerated mass circulation/cooling+elevating tropical tropopause, you have a recipe for a deeper/slower MJO wave w/ very efficient exhaust. Footnote: As it relates to AAM *tendency*, just for the sake of simplicity, I like to quote the old adage “every action has an equal and opposite reaction”. When you have large anomalies in AAM balance, the “backswing” is also going to be of higher amplitude. There is an unusually large excess of westerly momentum in the atmosphere right now relative to the rotation of the planet (in both hemispheres but especially the subtropical NH). 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 After what happened last year, everyone is becoming stratosphere junkie now. I’m especially looking forward to the insane model swings that will envelop the wx-weeniesphere over the coming weeks. Gonna be madness. So true. They have officially raided my twitter feed! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Feels like we'll be ripe for some manner of blocking around New Year's.I’m with you here. Big time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Here’s the new EPS for January 1st - 5th. Again, don’t take it verbatim, but note the trends in model guidance and the dynamic support (AAM drawdown from Eurasia, Indo-Pacific MJO, and the SSW). It’s undoubtedly a period to watch closely. (BTW: This is the “cold loading pattern” that Flatiron was alluding to but misinterpreted). 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Very dynamic system affecting Tulsa, OK today. Was 58 this morning at 10am. but by mid afternoon temps had dropped to about 40 with heavy rain and strong northerly winds. Quite a raw nasty day with widespread 2-3" rain amounts. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Do you have any websites/articles that explore at a higher level all the things you talk about? MJO/AAM/EAMT/SSW/tropical forcings/etc? I'm not talking about the in-the-weeds dissertations I know you read - more of a laymens term type paper. Whenever I Google this type of stuff it always leads to lame duck readings that perhaps explain what it is but not how it effects things. I'm hoping you have a Goldilocks source you can share.So like a source that explains these processes? Or a source with easy-to-decipher data/observations? I’m not sure about the former, but I can definitely provide you with the latter. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Very very quiet out there 47.7* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Phil, check your FB messenger lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Some sort of encouraging trends today it seems. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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