December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

OMG!! Are you serious!? What about week 8 in 1987 and some time before that!? I am not sure you know what your talking about.

 

I said the Seahawks were teetering on the edge of irrelevance when they were 4-5.      I will be forced to eat crow until whenever their season ends. 

 

And happily do so.   

[Phil]

OT post, but these are legit totals. Reports of ~ 30” in some places.

 

[Bryant]

I said the Seahawks were teetering on the edge of irrelevance when they were 4-5. I will be forced to eat crow until whenever their season ends.

 

And happily do so.

Point is you were counting them out too early on in the season

 

#bandwagonfan

[Requiem]

Monday's storm is looking very fun. A while out, yes, (but still within 10 days) but EURO and GFS show a strong signal for a powerful low-pressure area.

 

[TT-SEA]

Point is you were counting them out too early on in the season

 

#bandwagonfan

 

    No.    I take after the brutally honest East Coast fans.   No sugar coating.   And I go through WAY too much stress during the games.

  

My wife is a bandwagon fan... strutting around in her Seahawks gear for 6 months with absolutely no idea what is happening in the regular season.  Literally no idea. 

 

Then ramps up her interest in the playoffs and finally ends up claiming to be their biggest fan ever when they make it to the Super Bowl.   Saw it two years in a row.    She does not even understand the concept of "bandwagon fan" even though she defines the term.   But I love her anyways.    

[Timmy]

That ar in the long range looks to wipe out Oregon’s snowpack.

[Front Ranger]

GFS has the Aleutian ridge stronger and a little closer at days 8-9, but still doesn't want to cutoff energy down towards Hawaii like the Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty wicked AR showing up across NW Oregon on the GFS.

 

[Phil]

GFS has the Aleutian ridge stronger and a little closer at days 8-9, but still doesn't want to cutoff energy down towards Hawaii like the Euro.

Aleutian what?

 

Your model analysis has really sucked this year.

 

[Requiem]

Pretty wicked AR showing up across NW Oregon on the GFS.

 

 

Reminds me of November 6th, 2006.

[Timmy Supercell]

Flaking but there is nothing sticking. Still in the mid 30's. A good chance I may end up logging today as a "wet snow" if this moisture moves through quickly.

[TT-SEA]

Aleutian what?

 

Your model analysis has really sucked this year.

 

GFS sucks!

 

It will cave to the EPS eventually in the long range.

[seattleweatherguy]

Also, ugh, GFS shows the low pressure area on Friday going N. and heading for Seattle instead, rather than a region-wide bluster.

Wind or possible snow?

[Front Ranger]

Aleutian what?

 

Your model analysis has really sucked this year.

 

 

 

The 0z GFS at days 8-9, like I said. Not sure why you posted the 5 day mean in response to that.

 

See that ridging over that island chain west of Alaska?

 

[Requiem]

Wind or possible snow?

 

I think a bit of both, possibly. Wind for Seattle for sure, snow for V. Island and other northern areas possible.

[MossMan]

[Kayla]

Aleutian what?

 

Your model analysis has really sucked this year.

 

I think he was referring to the pattern upstream.

 

Aleutian ridge does occur in clown range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS is pretty close to something good, but the blocking just doesn't work out. Looks like a motherload of arctic air dropping out of Canada though for Christmas.

[Phil]

The 0z GFS at days 8-9, like I said. Not sure why you posted the 5 day mean in response to that.

 

See that ridging over that island chain west of Alaska?

 

Screenshot_1.png

Transitory wave in a sea of Aleutian troughing that lasts less than 36hrs. Not a block.

[Timmy Supercell]

Pretty wicked AR showing up across NW Oregon on the GFS.

 

 

Oregon becomes wetter, except for Klamath Falls drought     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Transitory wave in a sea of Aleutian troughing that lasts less than 36hrs. Not a block.

 

Aleutian troughing screws us in the long range too.

[Front Ranger]

Transitory wave in a sea of Aleutian troughing that lasts less than 36hrs. Not a block.

 

I didn't call it a block.

[Kayla]

Could be a cold Xmas around these parts.

 

1983 v2.0??

[Phil]

D1-5, D5-10, D10-15. #AleutianRidgingLol

 

[snow_wizard]

This GFS run gets pretty close to getting good.  I'm liking the trends.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 240 the GEM looks much better than the GFS..

 

GFS

GEM

 

[Phil]

Aleutian troughing screws us in the long range too.

That was my interpretation of the run, as well.

 

Hard to flatiron-away facts.

[Bryant]

D1-5, D5-10, D10-15. #AleutianRidgingLol

 

Not quite evident yet, but the trends are good

[Phil]

Not quite evident yet, but the trends are good

There’s an Alaskan wavebreak in the long range, which is a positive for sure.

 

But I personally wouldn’t call that an “Aleutian ridge”.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was my interpretation of the run, as well.

 

Hard to flatiron-away facts.

 

Yeah, can we give it a rest though. I think everyone agrees with you, no need for this to fill up the next 5 pages. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That ar in the long range looks to wipe out Oregon’s snowpack.

 

The GEM shows something juicy in that time period too, but nowhere near as insane as the GFS is showing. The GFS is showing widespread 24 hour amounts in the Willamette Valley of 2-4" with some places in the mid/south valley up to 6". Looks like an area in the Central Oregon Cascades gets up to 10" in a 24 hour period on that run. Totally insane. 

[Front Ranger]

That was my interpretation of the run, as well.

 

Hard to flatiron-away facts.

 

 

Get that frustration out?

[Front Ranger]

The GEM shows something juicy in that time period too, but nowhere near as insane as the GFS is showing. The GFS is showing widespread 24 hour amounts in the Willamette Valley of 2-4" with some places in the mid/south valley up to 6". Looks like an area in the Central Oregon Cascades gets up to 10" in a 24 hour period on that run. Totally insane. 

 

Seems like the models have a strong tendency to overdo precip that far out. Though it does look like a promising AR setup.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The secondary band of rain going through this evening dropped just as much rain up here as the initial band of rain. Up to 0.68" on the day now. 

[TT-SEA]

The GEM shows something juicy in that time period too, but nowhere near as insane as the GFS is showing. The GFS is showing widespread 24 hour amounts in the Willamette Valley of 2-4" with some places in the mid/south valley up to 6". Looks like an area in the Central Oregon Cascades gets up to 10" in a 24 hour period on that run. Totally insane.

Too much rain in Oregon ruins the snowpack and ends up making the drought worse next year. That would be par for the course lately.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like the models have a strong tendency to overdo precip that far out. Though it does look like a promising AR setup.

 

Yeah I mean theoretically what it is showing is possible. Those are about once every 5-10 year type 24 hour totals here. We had 6.69" in a 24 hour period in November 2006 and 5.39" on 1/18/2012. 

 

Probably wont be quite as intense and this far out the location of the heaviest range will likely move around a bit. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The FV3 has two AR type situations. The first one is way further south into N. California and just light/moderate precip in the PNW with reasonable snow levels. The 2nd is a bit further north and not as juicy. Definitely not as apocalyptic. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

This GFS run gets pretty close to getting good. I'm liking the trends.

I will like really the trends when they actually shows something more than “something close” that we see at least 3 or 4 times in the models every winter.

[Requiem]

Most models are showing a low pressure system with a powerful associated front on Sunday through Tuesday of next week. This Friday has potential too.

[Esquimalt]

Most models are showing a low pressure system with a powerful associated front on Sunday through Tuesday of next week. This Friday has potential too.

Snow is gone for us and much of Vancouver Island.  Always time for the models to trend the other way