December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Requiem]

Snow is gone for us and much of Vancouver Island.  Always time for the models to trend the other way

 

Hoping for that November 2006 redux!

[Timmy Supercell]

Yeah I mean theoretically what it is showing is possible. Those are about once every 5-10 year type 24 hour totals here. We had 6.69" in a 24 hour period in November 2006 and 5.39" on 1/18/2012.

 

Probably wont be quite as intense and this far out the location of the heaviest range will likely move around a bit. 

 

I remember 01/18/2012 being a 5-6" snow day in Klamath. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles COULD be interesting.

[Bryant]

There’s an Alaskan wavebreak in the long range, which is a positive for sure.

 

But I personally wouldn’t call that an “Aleutian ridge”.

Need the wavebreak to give us a chance at a true block forming.

[Parksvillewx]

Snow is gone for us and much of Vancouver Island.  Always time for the models to trend the other way

 

Low takes a more northerly track and leaves us on the cold rain side. Although the WRF is showing a snow day on Thursday for most of the island. 

 

[Requiem]

Ensembles COULD be interesting.

 

All I want is a strong low pressure system off the coast. For now.

[seattleweatherguy]

What does the euro show snow wise

[MossMan]

What does the euro show snow wise

Not sure that it’s quite out yet?

[ShawniganLake]

What does the euro show snow wise

For when and where?

[Omegaraptor]

I’m going skiing next weekend. Bring on the precipitation! 0.42” total today.

[Requiem]

What does the euro show snow wise

 

On Friday? EURO has way strengthened the Friday system. Probably a rainmaker now.

[ShawniganLake]

On Friday? EURO has way strengthened the Friday system. Probably a rainmaker now.

Rain even well up the BC coast.

[TT-SEA]

What does the euro show snow wise

 

Out through day 5 now... total snow through Friday:

 

[Timmy]

All I want is a strong low pressure system off the coast. For now.

As long as you get what you want We will all be happy!

[ShawniganLake]

Yuck. That Friday low curving way north blasts any cold air far away Looks quite mild.

[Requiem]

Ouch, EURO was not good. For wind or snow. All in all quite a disappointment of a run.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow over next weekend...

 

[ShawniganLake]

[Requiem]

A7435886-CA6B-4184-AB99-ADAAA02BEE89.png9F0424A9-3798-4FBB-B712-B203B287AFF8.png

I really hope this run was an outlier, there is almost nothing good about it.

[ShawniganLake]

I really hope this run was an outlier, there is almost nothing good about it.

Take a trip to hurricane ridge. 110mph gusts.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow over next 10 days... not so great for Oregon this run.

 

[snow_wizard]

Nice looking ECMWF run.  Classic Kona low and exploding heights over the GOA late in the run.

[snow_wizard]

It's truly remarkable how different the ECMWF is from the GFS and parallel GFS at day 10.  The ECMWF is in the early stages of something big at that time.

[Timmy Supercell]

Well that's it. Flaked for an hour, owl hooting and a frog croaked. I have seen more eventful evenings. 

[ShawniganLake]

Much improved EPS. Talking long range here. Block into Alaska, cold air building in Western Canada and a SE ridge.

[ShawniganLake]

[snow_wizard]

455CADC2-5D7E-48D1-B46A-7A276D315FDD.png

 

That + center is right where we want it.  Hopefully the downstream trough will trend sharper.  FWIW this is about the 4th consecutive run the EPS control has been very good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A late night reviewing documentation for work...Hearing intermittent downpours rolling through about every 15 minutes.

[Timmy Supercell]

Activity so far this winter. Not a very long list. 

 

11/23: T

11/30: 0.20"

12/01: 3.00"

12/08: 0.10"

12/09: Wet

 

5 days I've seen flakes, 3 days of measurable snowfall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS busted big time with a predicted winter storm in NE Oklahoma over the weekend so I'm not putting much stock in this, but would be fun...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE had a 40/35 yesterday. I believe their coolest high of the season so far. 

[ShawniganLake]

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Wow! awesome.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't call it clear ensemble improvement, but at least quite a bit of spread. Which is a consolation for the operational being a total cluster.****.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Phil]

Kill that b*tch.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kill that b*tch.

 

 

How many times have we seen this same or similar map though?

[Kayla]

Looks like the GEM ensemble is on board as well. Displaced PV right where you want it!

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/10wv3hy.jpg

[Phil]

Running through some analogs. These all nailed December.

 

 

Looking forward to January..this is roughly in line with my expectations, at this point in time:

 

[Phil]

How many times have we seen this same or similar map though?

Slowly moving up in time, though. Finally.

[ShawniganLake]

Brutal black ice weather out here this morning. A mix of rain showers and clear breaks overnight with temps dropping to 32 around 630am.