January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Any guesses as to what the druncle is going to spit out?

I’m afraid to think about it. Might sell more carbon credits if it’s bad.

[Front Ranger]

Wow, sure looks like one of the biggest Arctic invasions into the CONUS in a long time is coming next week.

 

Gonna be some nutty numbers, especially considering this is happening in late January.

[Front Ranger]

Insane AK block days 9-10 on the CMC.

 

Western Canada gets very cold.

[BLI snowman]

Any guesses as to what the druncle is going to spit out?

 

565 thickness in early February. Red flag warning time.

[Blizzard777]

Wow, sure looks like one of the biggest Arctic invasions into the CONUS in a long time is coming next week.

Gonna be some nutty numbers, especially considering this is happening in late January.

Would love to be part of the invasion!!!

One of my brothers left today for his cabin in the Smoky Mountains TN. Should of jumped in the car and went with him.

Will be tracking this cold spell as well to keep him up to date

[MossMan]

February will be our month!

[Front Ranger]

February will be our month!

It's been the most consistent performer since 2011.

[Blizzard777]

February will be our month!

You would think since our winter has sucked so bad it’s created a HUGE vacuum that will channel the cold air in our direction

 

#myAnalog

[Deweydog]

It’s January 25th.

[Deweydog]

Sub-540dm thicknesses by day 9...

[Esquimalt]

18Z GFS solid nope with a return to the gulf of alaska trough

[Phil]

I'd be more worried about the small trees in your yard.

Why should I be worried about them?

 

They look okay to me.

 

[Esquimalt]

18Z GFS gets there in the end, with a strong, retrograding alaska block.  

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS gets there in the end, with a strong, retrograding alaska block.  

 

 

Is our goal some ice pellets and highs around 40?  

[Esquimalt]

Is our goal some ice pellets and highs around 40?  

Better than rain at 45!

[luvssnow_spokane]

[MossMan]

The 12z ensembles still looked quite good!

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 12z ensembles still looked quite good!

A pre-MLK mini miracle.

[HighlandExperience]

A pre-MLK mini miracle.

This will really be our last chance for the winter. After Feb 15th it’s all down hill for us outside of the foothills

[ShawniganLake]

Ensemble looks seasonal in the medium and long range.

[umadbro]

The 6z is the new druncle.

[Gradient Keeper]

I think the chances for an arctic blast are 15-20% to be honest. It all depends on how the cut-off lows are handled if we even end up having to contend with them. A lot can change the next 4-5 days. What I do see with any run-to-run consistency is Day 7+ the high likelihood of a southeast ridge.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 38 minutes

[MossMan]

This will really be our last chance for the winter. After Feb 15th it’s all down hill for us outside of the foothills

All of our great February’s over the last decade started during the last two weeks of the month so don’t count those out!

[MossMan]

Ensemble looks seasonal in the medium and long range.

Worlds better than yesterday’s ensembles!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

All of our great February’s over the last decade started during the last two weeks of the month so don’t count those out!

13-14 was like Feb 6-8.

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

13-14 was like Feb 6-8.

Yup, exactly. It was a nice, cold, and snowy Birthday on the 7th! Let's do it again.

 

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 17 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yup, exactly. It was a nice, cold, and snowy Birthday on the 7th! Let's do it again.

 

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 17 minutes

 

10 inches in Pacific City with that one. 

[MossMan]

13-14 was like Feb 6-8.

True! But all the others were late!

[Front Ranger]

True! But all the others were late!

The big Feb 2017 snowstorm for the Seattle area was early February.

[Gradient Keeper]

Juneau Alaska National Weather Service forecast discussion screams about how complex and changeable the forecast period is after Day 3 now. That might favor us it just depends on how the cut-off lows are handled. Wild model swings from run to run seems real probable.

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 25 2019

A system will be lifting N from the NEPAC at start of the period. Think bulk of the energy from this will stay to the W until at least Mon, when there is support for one piece of the first splitting trof to the W to move NE across the area Mon night and Tue. **After that, complex stream interactions make for a difficult forecast overall, with SOME OF THE WORST MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE being over the EPAC and AK during Tue night-Fri. All in all, forecast confidence is very low at the moment, especially after Mon night.

[MossMan]

[Jesse]

PDX stayed in the 40s today. Seems pretty chilly for this time of year.

[BLI snowman]

PDX stayed in the 40s today. Seems pretty chilly for this time of year.

 

This next week will solidify an entire decade without any PNW lowland snow between January 20-31. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

True, but all the others were later in the month!

I guess what I’m trying to say is that the memorable ones “foot plus” snows have come in later February over the last decade.

 

Again, depends on where you live.  There were places near the Oregon coast that had a foot + in 2014

[MossMan]

Quite the sunset!

[Requiem]

True, but all the others were later in the month!

I guess what I’m trying to say is that the memorable ones “foot plus” snows have come in later February over the last decade.

 

Wait, which other late February snowstorms were there over the late decade? I can only recall February 2018, to be honest. The rest were either in early February or mid-February.

[MossMan]

Wait, which other late February snowstorms were there over the late decade? I can only recall February 2018, to be honest. The rest were either in early February or mid-February.

Feb. 2010 (or 11 I alway get them mixed up) up here we had 18” of snow the last week or so of the month.

[Requiem]

Feb. 2010 (or 11 I alway get them mixed up) up here we had 18” of snow the last week or so of the month.

 

Oh, I had no idea that was even a thing! Guess I need to brush up on my knowledge of historical snow events haha

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh, I had no idea that was even a thing! Guess I need to brush up on my knowledge of historical snow events haha

Pretty sure the 2011 stuff was a way bigger deal further north. There were some localized flurries in and around Dallas.