January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

Icon is colder and snowier at hour 114.

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go....

[Gradient Keeper]

Icon is colder and snowier at hour 114.

Yea, nice low along a juicy arctic front dropping south.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Day 1

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, at Day 2.5 both the offshore ridge and Aleutian ridge feature stronger height anomalies and closer to merging than 00z, 18z. Somewhat close to a mega block.

 

[Jbolin]

If this pattern "progression" fizzles out, we are going to need a lot of xanax and personal therapy sessions for a lot of members.

Jim of all people NEEDS THIS

 

[Jbolin]

Hmmm, at Day 2.5 both the offshore ridge and Aleutian ridge are stronger height anomalies and closer to merging than 00z. Somewhat close to a mega block.

IS this really happening Rob?

 

Should I go buy a snowblower?

[Gradient Keeper]

Here was Day 2 (Pivotal running a bit slower than Tidbits)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 heights a bit higher over southwestern Alaska, block a touch further north/amplified

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 block a bit more amplified and note it's a bit 'beefier' in width over Alaska.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[El_Nina]

Day 4.5

 

It's just sitting there wanting to drop.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

Compared to 00z

[Gradient Keeper]

IF this is a trend for improved amplification of the Aleutian ridge/merger look for colder 12z runs today.

[MikeInEverett]

GFS has caved even more than 00z.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 850s

 

Compared to 00z

[Jbolin]

Day 5.5 850s

 

Compared to 00z

Easily a -5C to -7C drop in some area's overall

 

What are the 925's looking like comparatively? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6, 850s BIG difference

 

Compared to 00z

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So close!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately only that brief 2 day cold shot with a chance of light snow(PDX). I am hoping east winds develop after Day 7. BUT if I'm right and we see a trend each run for improved amplitude of the Aleutian ridge Day 3-4, that could change.

[MikeInEverett]

06z ICON pretty much the same as its 00z run.

 

[Bryant]

6z GEFS trended deeper with initial trough

[Jesse]

[Farmboy]

Well I'm excited for you guys, I hope 12z runs trend even colder. You guys have def earned it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some very eagerly anticipated runs. 

[Jbolin]

Some very eagerly anticipated runs. 

No doubt

 

I'm putting 3-1 odds on the forks coming out later this morning

12-1 odds on full arctic blast

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-23 at O'Hare this morning with a -51 WC. That verified.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No doubt

 

I'm putting 3-1 odds on the forks coming out later this morning

12-1 odds on full arctic blast

 

Won't be forks, but the 06z FV-3 continued to trend away from anything too special.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I’m not even going to tell my wife, just going to let it be a surprise!! Really need to get my new weather station up and running!!!

Yeah I am curious what you think of it, thinking about upgrading to one of those myself. I know to truly upgrade I need to be looking at the Davis units but those are too rich for my blood.....

 

I just need to get away from the piece of crap (not so) Acurite unit I have now

[Jesse]

Won't be forks, but the 06z FV-3 continued to trend away from anything too special.

 

You seem to use the word "trend" pretty loosely.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Totally crazy to me that they would even do that. None of the models really indicated much of anything down there so it's not even a legitimate bust.

They are really gunshy....back in 2014 they had a storm come through and the temp dropped really quick, freezing the roads in the middle of the afternoon. It was basically the evening commute as they were shutting down early.

 

Folks were trapped on the freeway for up to 24 hours, kids trapped on buses 8-9 hours, and kids forced to spend the night at school.

 

Same kind of thing happened when I was knee high to a grasshopper and living there....my mom took 8 hours to make it home (usually takes an hour), then a few years later they closed down the city early and nothing happened...

[Front Ranger]

-23 at O'Hare this morning with a -51 WC. That verified.

 

Wow.

 

-42 in Park Rapids, MN. 

 

Aberdeen, SD hit -34, which is right up there with their all-time coldest temps this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You seem to use the word "trend" pretty loosely.

 

Looking a lot like a glancing blow with most of the cold air sliding east. Still world's better than anything we've seen this winter if it verified. I think it will verify, but probably 850s around -6 to -8C for PDX. I'm feeling positive.

[TT-SEA]

The FV3 and ECMWF ensemble were keeping the hope alive when other models backed off.  The FV3 did back off on this cold wave for a couple of runs, but still got it cold eventually on every single run.  Assuming this verifies I would give the FV3 an A-.  This could make tracking coming cold snaps much less dicey in the future.

 

I am like the FV3.   

 

I claimed emphatically that this was coming in the Feb 1-5 period about 3 weeks ago against comments from others that there is zero chance of it happening given the ENSO situation and the progression this winter.

 

Then started to doubt it would actually happen.     But actually turned out to be right in the end!  

[Jesse]

PDX down to freezing...

[Jbolin]

I am like the FV3.   

 

I claimed emphatically that this was coming in the Feb 1-5 period about 3 weeks ago against comments from others that there is zero chance of it happening given the ENSO situation and the progression this winter.

 

Then started to doubt it would actually happen.     But actually turned out to be right in the end!  

Not yet Tim, not yet

[TT-SEA]

PDX down to freezing...

 

 

You might be saying PDX is up to freezing during the afternoon soon.