January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW. Monday is just a dry seasonably cool day in Western Washington on the FV-3.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Today has been unfortunate for sure. Luckily we still have 48 hours to see some shifting in the models

I've we've been through this many times. I'm not to worried yet.

[Requiem]

I've we've been through this many times. I'm not to worried yet.

 

I admire your optimism, the models just keep siding with the GFS,

[Esquimalt]

Fraser outflow is rolling by Saturday night on the 0z WRF. Seems like the timing has moved up quite a bit:

 

 

Hmm do you have the snowfall map for this?

[TT-SEA]

WOW. Monday is just a dry seasonably cool day in Western Washington on the FV-3.

 

Big shift to the south and west on FV3.

 

Side note - I think you have made like 50 negative posts today alone.    I appreciate the honest assessment though.    

[Esquimalt]

Ensemble deterioration continues.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If the Euro is the bad a** model people say it is then we should be fine.

[Requiem]

Ensemble deterioration continues.  

 

Nice 

[Perturbed Member]

The trend on the FV3 is quite dramatic. 12z, 18z and now 00z. 

 

 

 

 

The trough is now far enough offshore that very little precip even makes it to PDX as the low approaches and slides south. 

[TT-SEA]

If the Euro is the bad a** model people say it is then we should be fine.

 

Exactly.  

[Requiem]

Exactly.  

 

I have a feeling the EURO is going to cave in to the GFS/other model trends.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big shift to the south and west on FV3.

 

Side note - I think you have made like 50 negative posts today alone.    I appreciate the honest assessment though.    

 

Hasn't been much good to report. The trends are pretty bad. At this point the Monday-Tuesday period may not even produce snow up here...Which is unfortunate because I was hoping everyone would see snow. Still a couple good models like the ICON, but those seem more like outliers at this point.

[Jesse]

Exactly.  

 

The Euro has moved west the past few runs as well. Considering the trends on all the models today it is sort of silly to think that won't continue on tonight's 00Z.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think the euro will cave a bit then remain steady after tonight and the other models will move back to where the euro settles down on the resolution.

[TT-SEA]

I have a feeling the EURO is going to cave in to the GFS/other model trends.

 

I just don't see that happening.   It would be very surprising for the ECMWF to make a big shift like that within 4 days.  

 

The 12Z run showed snow for almost everyone.  

[HighlandExperience]

[Esquimalt]

I think the euro will cave a bit then remain steady after tonight and the other models will move back to where the euro settles down on the resolution.

Do you think things will still work out?

[TT-SEA]

The Euro has moved west the past few runs as well. Considering the trends on all the models today it is sort of silly to think that won't continue on tonight's 00Z.

 

 

I guess it has... but the results have still been good for the entire area.    Even on the 12Z run.  

 

Can't envision that just disappearing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Do you think things will still work out?

Yes. Models NEVER handle the cold very good in these patterns and I'm going with the euro on this because it's been by far the most consistent. I pic icon next because it latched on to this first. I think the gfs is out to lunch. It was also last to even show the thing.

[Jesse]

I guess it has... but the results have still been good for the entire area. Even on the 12Z run.

 

Can't envision that just disappearing.

No doubt it would be totally unprecedented.

[Perturbed Member]

I guess it has... but the results have still been good for the entire area.    Even on the 12Z run.  

 

Can't envision that just disappearing.

 

I think the 12z Euro still produced better results for most of us even with the small westward trend compared to 00z last night. I'd be pretty shocked to see the euro completely collapse now. The 2010s version of Jan 2005?

Going from models showing -12 to -17c 850s to -6/-7 in PDX. Gross. 

[Esquimalt]

In positive news, the gfs ensembles are showing an extended cool, mostly dry pattern. Moderation doesn't arrive as quickly tonight.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hmm do you have the snowfall map for this?

 

Looks patchy, but I wouldn't worry much about the totals shown here if the 925mb temperatures cool down as quickly as shown. There will be some interesting dynamics in play on Sunday and actual snowfall will probably look nothing like this:

 

[Esquimalt]

Looks patchy, but I wouldn't worry much about the totals shown here if the 925mb temperatures cool down as quickly as shown. There will be some interesting dynamics in play on Sunday and actual snowfall will probably look nothing like this:

 

Do you remember how well the November 2006 or January 2012 snow patterns were predicted beforehand?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

In other news the shot of crown royal i just did hit the spot.

[Jesse]

In positive news, the gfs ensembles are showing an extended cool, mostly dry pattern. Moderation doesn't arrive as quickly tonight.

 

The dry part is not good news.

[TT-SEA]

Looks patchy, but I wouldn't worry much about the totals shown here if the 925mb temperatures cool down as quickly as shown. There will be some interesting dynamics in play on Sunday and actual snowfall will probably look nothing like this:

 

 

 

The low going down the coast is the worst case scenario for the Seattle area and King County.

 

The precip just evaporates as it moves in.  

[Front Ranger]

Jaya.

[GHweatherChris]

I don't think the EURO is leading this time, it happens!

[TT-SEA]

I don't think the EURO is leading this time, it happens!

 

You have been entirely negative from the start... I admire your consistency at least.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Outstanding news on the ensembles. .

[Requiem]

Outstanding news on the ensembles. .

 

You can't just say that and not post something! Cliffhanger...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Do you remember how well the November 2006 or January 2012 snow patterns were predicted beforehand?

 

The models showed virtually nothing here in January 2012, strait-enhancement and moisture bands running getting juiced up by the outflow played a big roll. I don't remember the models for Victoria in Nov 2006, but there was a lot of moisture in play with that one; I don't think believe the big Victoria event being well modeled.

[GHweatherChris]

You have been entirely negative from the start... I admire your consistency at least.

Realistic, not our winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS
Yeah. Might want to check this out.

 

4 AM Monday. Increasing east wind pulling cold air through the Gorge as a 993mb low stalls near Waldport! Hmmm!

 

[HighlandExperience]

The models showed virtually nothing here in January 2012, strait-enhancement and moisture bands running getting juiced up by the outflow played a big roll. I don't remember the models for Victoria in Nov 2006, but there was a lot of moisture in play with that one; I don't think believe the big Victoria event being well modeled.

January 2012 was very memorable. A repeat would be amazing

[MikeInEverett]

I think his name was Jaya

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The dry part is not good news.

It's getting ridiculous. 2 rainy days then 8 sunny. We need the snow and i love weather and sun is NOT weather!!!!

[Front Ranger]

You have been entirely negative from the start... I admire your consistency at least.

#trustthegut

[Meatyorologist]

Looks patchy, but I wouldn't worry much about the totals shown here if the 925mb temperatures cool down as quickly as shown. There will be some interesting dynamics in play on Sunday and actual snowfall will probably look nothing like this:

 

THANK YOU!

 

While the dynamics certainly aren't favorable for a widespread multi-inch snow event, the convective nature of the atmosphere Sunday night will still bring about the opportunity for snow everywhere. Convective situations like this, especially from 48+ hours out, are nearly impossible to model, especially when factoring in that the models are clearly undergoing some significant debates on whatever the hell this low is going to do.

 

Religiously using unstable, rapidly changing GFS runs as analogs for a marginally freezing convective situation is like cooking a turkey with a thirty year old microwave. You can only fit so much in a box.