January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

The models showed virtually nothing here in January 2012, strait-enhancement and moisture bands running getting juiced up by the outflow played a big roll. I don't remember the models for Victoria in Nov 2006, but there was a lot of moisture in play with that one; I don't think believe the big Victoria event being well modeled.

So what’s your prediction for Sunday?

[TT-SEA]

#trustthegut

 

 

I am all over the place!  

[luvssnow_spokane]

In other news the shot of crown royal i just did hit the spot.

BSB here.. yum!

[BLI snowman]

The models showed virtually nothing here in January 2012, strait-enhancement and moisture bands running getting juiced up by the outflow played a big roll. I don't remember the models for Victoria in Nov 2006, but there was a lot of moisture in play with that one; I don't think believe the big Victoria event being well modeled.

 

Those were buzzsaw airmasses in SW BC. Not hugely analogous to what we're looking at now.

[GHweatherChris]

I am all over the place!

#true

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The low going down the coast is the worst case scenario for the Seattle area and King County.

 

The precip just evaporates as it moves in.  

 

It would be much better if the low hugged the coast and moved toward the SE. We got screwed in a similar last Feb 18th with the low racing quickly to the SW; only narrow stretch of East Vancouver Island and a narrow convergence zone scored in that one. This Monday setup looks pretty similar in terms of trajectory; but setup on Sunday is different enough to give me some hope.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Big ECMWF run coming up.

It sure is. I'll be refreshing my browser on my phone like crazy eagerly anticipating the snow and temperature maps you post. Thank you in advance. ❄❄

[Front Ranger]

Those were buzzsaw airmasses in SW BC. Not hugely analogous to what we're looking at now.

Most models are still showing impressive cold in SW BC.

[GHweatherChris]

THANK YOU!

 

While the dynamics certainly aren't favorable for a widespread multi-inch snow event, the convective nature of the atmosphere Sunday night will still bring about the opportunity for snow everywhere. Convective situations like this, especially from 48+ hours out, are nearly impossible to model, especially when factoring in that the models are clearly undergoing some significant debates on whatever the hell this low is going to do.

 

Religiously using unstable, rapidly changing GFS runs as analogs for a marginally freezing convective situation is like cooking a turkey with a thirty year old microwave. You can only fit so much in a box.

The difference is, you can actually cook a turkey in a microwave anytime you want to!! That is a fact!!

[Meatyorologist]

The difference is, you can actually cook a turkey in a microwave anytime you want to!! That is a fact!!

I'm not even going to ask you to elaborate on that one... 

[BLI snowman]

Most models are still showing impressive cold in SW BC.

 

Not on the level of 2012/2006, which produced widespread

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Those were buzzsaw airmasses in SW BC. Not hugely analogous to what we're looking at now.

 

Nov 2006 was; January 2012 was pretty pathetic at the 850mb levels. Low-level outflow saved that event up here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The ideal path for western wa is down Vancouver island then out a bit over the coast then from long beach east towards the cascades. Stronger the low the better. November 2010 was just north of this and if that low would of been stronger it really would of been wild.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

So what’s your prediction for Sunday?

 

Still too far out to give anything better than a weak guess, I expect we'll see at least an inch of snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The difference is, you can actually cook a turkey in a microwave anytime you want to!! That is a fact!!

I cooked a frozen pizza with a flame thrower at my cabin. It Acually worked pretty good. There was some coors light involved though.

[The Swamp]

The great thing about the next 5-8 days is there will be a surprise in there for someone.

[BLI snowman]

Nov 2006 was; January 2012 was pretty pathetic at the 850mb levels. Low-level outflow saved that event up here.

 

Yeah,, the CAA was pretty top notch in 2012.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm not even going to ask you to elaborate on that one...

800-288-8372

[GHweatherChris]

I cooked a frozen pizza with a flame thrower at my cabin. It Acually worked pretty good. There was some coors light involved though.

So many ways to cook delicious food!! Gonna add this to my book!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z FV3 shows the deformation band for Monday night into Tuesday morning but it's a little bit further east than the GFS as it lifts up from Central OR into Southern WA.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Gradient Keeper]

I am liking the 00z GFS Ensembles, especially The Dalles to Moses Lake which shows potential for prolonged backdoor cold/east winds through Gorge.

[Esquimalt]

Euro weeklies came in. Below normal temps between now and mid march except for one week

[Andrew.]

Trend of east winds picking up in the runs tonight, could be good news for at least Portland metro area

[Jesse]

It's getting ridiculous. 2 rainy days then 8 sunny. We need the snow and i love weather and sun is NOT weather!!!!

Couldn’t agree more. Especially this time of year.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No one is faster than DJ at posting maps.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Esquimalt]

No one is faster than DJ at posting maps.

I wonder if he's as quick at posting the maps as he is changing the records.

[seattleweatherguy]

Pray #snow

[Gradient Keeper]

Just a music producer, not an actual DJ.... I created the alias back in 2000 believe it or not and also use Bass Launch.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 29 minutes

[FrozenBites]

Thinking the Euro will come through. (Hunch)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[TT-SEA]

Couldn’t agree more. Especially this time of year.

 

 

In my wet area (based on Cedar Lake)... there are normally 48 dry days from October - January.

 

This year there has been 49 dry days in that period.   

 

A break down by month:

 

October - 14 (normal is 15)

November - 10 (normal is 11)

December - 8 (normal is 10)

January - 17 (normal is 12)

 

 

So there has only been 1 more dry day here this rainy season than normal.   

 

January was the only drier than normal month.   This has been a climo winter in terms of days with rain here.    Its been lovely.

[Front Ranger]

Just a music producer, not an actual DJ.... I created the alias back in 2000 believe it or not and also use Bass Launch.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 29 minutes

Please stick with DJ Droppin here.

[GHweatherChris]

In my wet area (based on Cedar Lake)... there are normally 48 dry days from October - January.

 

This year there has been 49 dry days in that period.

 

A break down by month:

 

October - 14 (normal is 15)

November - 10 (normal is 11)

December - 8 (normal is 10)

January - 17 (normal is 12)

 

 

So there has only been 1 more dry day here this rainy season than normal.

 

January was the only drier than normal month.

Unnecessary post.

[Esquimalt]

A notch EAST thru hour 48 from this morning

[Jesse]

I've been thinking it for a few days, but a lobe of northern energy phasing with a ULL to our south is just a non-traditional way to get a meaninful cold pattern here. Probably part of why the models are struggling with it/backing off. Are there any historical instances of us getting appreciable cold here with such a pattern? I can't think of any off the top of my head.

[Front Ranger]

In my wet area (based on Cedar Lake)... there are normally 48 dry days from October - January.

 

This year there has been 49 dry days in that period.

 

A break down by month:

 

October - 14 (normal is 15)

November - 10 (normal is 11)

December - 8 (normal is 10)

January - 17 (normal is 12)

 

 

So there has only been 1 more dry day here this rainy season than normal.

 

January was the only drier than normal month. This has been a climo winter in terms of days with rain here. Its been lovely.

#notreflectiveoftheregionatall

[Gradient Keeper]

Compared to 00z last night the arctic trough is slightly further southeast.