Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 321 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 .DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/ Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 The seven day forecast is quiet with the exception of a potential winter storm affecting much of Iowa from Friday through Saturday. As a broad and somewhat discombobulated 500 mb trough moves slowly eastward across the central U.S. at the end of this week, it will gradually come into phase with several shortwave impulses rounding into the trough. As this occurs a reflective surface cyclone will develop near the Texas panhandle and subsequently move eastward near the Missouri/Arkansas border. The broad lift along the leading flank of the 500 mb trough will overlay a broad inverted surface trough in the northern hemisphere of the surface low, resulting in a large shield of precipitation affecting much of Kansas, Missouri, southern Iowa, and Illinois along with smaller portions of Nebraska and Wisconsin. The signal for this overall scenario has been present for days now and confidence is high in precipitation across southern and southeastern Iowa from Friday night into Saturday. As a result, POPs have been increased to 100 percent in these areas during the most likely precipitation time, from midnight to noon Saturday morning. However, the devil is in the details in terms of recent forecast trends. There has been fairly solid agreement in the various prognostic models over the last 36 hours or so in better/more quickly phasing the trough structure as the system moves over Iowa, resulting in a somewhat more organized precipitation shield structure and higher QPF. The improved phasing has also pushed the northern/northwestern edge of the precipitation further northwest within our forecast area. Whereas a couple days ago it appeared the cutoff would fall somewhere down around Ottumwa and Albia, trends now favor the cutoff falling more toward Atlantic, Ames and Tama, and have trended the outgoing forecast this way accordingly, with accumulating snowfall now extending roughly up to around Highway 30. There has also been a corresponding increase in forecast snowfall amounts in our southeastern counties, with accumulations in the 4 to 6 inch range looking quite possible. In addition, forecast soundings also indicate the possibility of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain on the northwestern/back edge of the precipitation, likely across northern and northwestern portions of the forecast area, and have maintained that in the forecast as well. Despite the potential for moderate snowfall accumulations, mainly in our southeast, and very light icing, mainly in our northwest, the hazards will be somewhat mitigated by two factors. First, there is a lack of any meaningful surface winds associated with the system in our area, thus no real blowing snow is anticipated. Second, the bulk of the precipitation will fall on Friday night and Saturday, especially during the overnight and morning hours, when traffic flow is much lower, which will also lower the overall travel impacts. It seems clear that a winter weather advisory will be needed at some point, and there is the possibility that if recent model trends continue forecast snow amounts could edge up toward 6 inches in the southeast and necessitate a winter storm warning. However, given this uncertainty and the still unclear details of amounts and location of the edge of the precipitation shield, no headlines have been issued on this shift. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 06Z GFS- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 When you love snow storms (and rarely get any anymore) ; following computer guidance is like the relationships I had with women 25 years ago. Ups and downs and gone so quick you never even got to her HRRR or RAP - until you find that "one". 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 06Z CMC seems better for most... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 06Z CMC North and wetter compared to 00Z--- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 NAM and Euro almost in agreement I expect a WSW to come out today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 The energy is still out in the PAC and there is a lack of upper air data in this region and I wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustments. STL NWS has a nice graphic showing this energy and the graphic below shows where the ECMWF has weather stations and ship observations that input data into the model. Clearly, there is a lack of data and usually as systems approach the desert SW we see some subtle shifts.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 NWS Kansas City going a little conservative but still showing 4-6 for me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 12z EPS did shift the snow shield a bit south compared to the previous couple runs across N IL/IN/MI but still looks good for S IA and back W towards SE NE into KC/MO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 06z Euro... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Liking the overall trend of the SREF--- and so should those in Windy City-- getting so close!! 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Liking the overall trend of the SREF--- and so should those in Windy City-- getting so close!!sref_namer_081_snow_total_mean.gifExtended out it even looks better over here.... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_087_snow_total_sprd.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Confluence is killing this storm for MI peeps. For those that do get it, enjoy it! Edit: My niece who is in Vanderbilt, University in Tennessee told me this morning that a couple of inches are likely there. Trucks are preparing w salt. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 12z NAM looks a bit north across NE and IA thru HR48 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nam pushes snow line past the border on 12z 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Sweetness on Nam!! 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nam pushes snow line past the border on 12zMatches up nicely with the SREF maps above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 12z NAM a nice hit for many. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Ok if the Nam wins out we are gonna have a lot of surprised people around my area. Nobody is even talking about this storm! @Tom, crazy how the LRC is working to a T my man. Expect another major storm sometime next week as my area got blasted by a storm the week after the Blizzard in Kansas back in November! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 12z NAM a nice hit for many.Are we seeing the 1st “Share the Wealth”? Hope so! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Are we seeing the 1st “Share the Wealth”? Hope so!Seems like somebody predicted that a while back LOL! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 3km Nam also much better! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I guess all I have to do is punt on a system for it to trend well here. Oh well. I'm punting on this one 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I guess all I have to do is punt on a system for it to trend well here. Oh well. I'm punting on this one That goes for both you and GDR! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 3k nam is much less for eastern Nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 12z NAM gives 1-3" in general across N IL...I'll take a couple inches in a sec... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Ok if the Nam wins out we are gonna have a lot of surprised people around my area. Nobody is even talking about this storm! @Tom, crazy how the LRC is working to a T my man. Expect another major storm sometime next week as my area got blasted by a storm the week after the Blizzard in Kansas back in November! Local guys are still going trace to one inch. If this pains out I'll get in a good laugh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Locally speaking, there will be a solid easterly flow off LM and temps look to be cold enough to support some Lehs. The higher rez models could start picking up on that tomorrow. Something to watch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Ok if the Nam wins out we are gonna have a lot of surprised people around my area. Nobody is even talking about this storm! @Tom, crazy how the LRC is working to a T my man. Expect another major storm sometime next week as my area got blasted by a storm the week after the Blizzard in Kansas back in November! You are right, no one is talking about anything but a little light snow. Still may be very little here as we are on the northern edge unless it sneaks a little farther north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nice NAM run. I'll take 2-3 inches any day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS through 42 seems further N in IA-- slightly more QPF than 06Z Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS definitely developed the northern section very interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Icon is as well but nothing like the nam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 3k nam is much less for eastern NebraskaI feel like this is also more realistic in terms of max amounts. Temps near freezing won't exactly be combined with great amounts. I think there will also be a layer of dry air for this thing to fight off so that will kick down amounts. Obviously some people will see higher amounts, but this is a good guide for people who don't have CentNeb levels of luck. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 RGEM is stronger but also farther South. Still snowing at the end of the run. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I'm certainly liking the trend this morning. The models that kept all the snow south of CR have now jumped north and show >0.20". The 12k NAM is up to 0.40-0.50". Just as good, the models have slowed the system so now I'll actually get to watch it snow at least through the morning if not all day. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 CMC staying strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Either way looks like the I-70 corridor is the sweet spot. Looks like my parents just north of Columbia will end up with 10 inches. They have had better luck this year than us, and we have been luckier than most. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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