Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[gosaints]

Globals versus mesos...

 

Also a nice test for the number punchers in the FV3

[St Paul Storm]

RAP and HRRR still telling the southern globals to take a seat. Great battle ensuing. Radar trends looking good. Should have some snow here by early evening.

[brianc400]

On one hand, bring on the heavier snow. Go globals!

On the other hand, I have to drive in this around 6 am so would definitely prefer the RAP and HRRR.

[Snowshoe]

NWS Green Bay was a really good read this morning. It was really long so I won't copy it here. Talked about ratios and "warm" air being wrapped around increasing ratios in the southern part of this CWA. I'm optimistic about seeing a foot plus of high ratio snow.

[jaster220]

Yeah DMX mentioned 1"/hr rates as well. I'm liking the S shift. Pretty soon it will be radar trends.

 

Here is the NWS WPC 50%/95% Percentile snowfall range to provide a range of what we can expect.  I remember posting this map using the 95% percentile range for the Jan 11th/12th S MW storm and it did quite well.

 

  But per my pro's, everything 8+ shown south of I-96 in SWMI is a "map mirage"

 

 

anywhere from 4-8" of snow along/south of I-96

 

By deciding headlines premature to late-game trends, GRR has us again in a WWA

[Niko]

  But per my pro's, everything 8+ shown south of I-96 in SWMI is a "map mirage"

 

 

By deciding headlines premature to late-game trends, GRR has us again in a WWA

 

[Money]

  But per my pro's, everything 8+ shown south of I-96 in SWMI is a "map mirage"

 

 

 

By deciding headlines premature to late-game trends, GRR has us again in a WWA

You complain about your office a lot lol

[Hawkeye]

12z FV3

 

[gosaints]

I am not gonna do More than glance at the hrrr or rap until the system gets out of canada

[jaster220]

You complain about your office a lot lol

 

You would too if you kept getting 6-10" hits and no watch or warning

[jaster220]

Wagons South.....

12z GFS south

GFS south

12z GGEM south

 

Unfortunately, the SR models suck for SMI. Could be more onboard with the S trend if they were better over here instead of the opposite. GL to ya tho!

[Money]

You would too if you kept getting 6-10" hits and no watch or warning

There’s more to a watch or warning than just snow totals. A lot of times it depends when the snowfall occurs and if there’s any wind etc.

[jaster220]

12z FV3

 

 

Poor SEMI can't catch a break this season. Too warm, too dry, too suppressed

[jaster220]

There’s more to a watch or warning than just snow totals. A lot of times it depends when the snowfall occurs and if there’s any wind etc.

 

No kiddin? And this looks to have more of the bad components than prior storms. Point is, this office currently has a imby bias and has for many years ignoring proper attention to southern counties wrt synoptic events. I don't have a problem with a watch turning into a WWA. I DO have a problem with premature "final answer" mentality

[james1976]

Radar really lighting up in Montana. That's a long ways away though.

[jaster220]

And as for "when something happens" is also BS. You telling me that people that work odd shifts and are commuting home at 12 am deserve less concern than the majority working typical "day job" schedule? That's just not logical, especially in this PC era

[Tom]

12z UKIE...I guess every model has trended towards the King thus far today.  

[indianajohn]

I'm loving the recent trends!!! Don't think it will go much more south but at least NWI gets in the action a little....was worried we would end up with pixie dust..

[East Dubzz]

It’s too bad snow ratios are going to suck around here.

[jaster220]

There’s more to a watch or warning than just snow totals. A lot of times it depends when the snowfall occurs and if there’s any wind etc.

 

From a total "non-weenie" poster on Amwx. I rest my case

 

 

GRR should already have warnings up in its southern most counties but GRR apparently is using different warning criteria than the rest of the country these days.

[Niko]

NWS calling for 5-7" for MBY. Sounds good to me.

[james1976]

All models put me on the 0.50" line. If that holds i should have a shot at 6"

[Niko]

All models put me on the 0.50" line. If that holds i should have a shot at 6"

If you have high snow ratios, you can add a few inches to that.

[james1976]

If you have high snow ratios, you can add a few inches to that.

I dont think ratios are gonna be great around here.

[Tom]

Can't deny it, South trend is for real...12z GEFS coming in juiced and South...Chicago and the rest of the CWA may be reeling one in after all....

[Niko]

I dont think ratios are gonna be great around here.

True...little too warm, but you should get a plowable snow. That south trend really helped your area. I would say a 4-8" call for your area sounds legit.

[jaster220]

Can't deny it, South trend is for real...12z GEFS coming in juiced and South...Chicago and the rest of the CWA may be reeling one in after all....

 

Sure a nice 180 from where we were Friday evening, eh? All hail King Euro on holding steady. I don't watch TWC, but somebody SE of Marshall posted that their local forecast had been upped to 6-11" which sounds nice from where I'm sitting

[jaster220]

NWS calling for 5-7" for MBY. Sounds good to me.

 

On the SMI forum I posted that this indeed was shaping up to be a classic SEMI "5-9er"   Hoping trends continue to align with Euro/GEFS/NCEP maps which have Marshall in the 10-12" range by Wed morning (prolly includes a little LES follow-on after the SLP heads northeast of MI)

[Money]

Sigh

[Niko]

New package at 4pm this afternoon should contain warning level snows, hopefully.

[Niko]

On the SMI forum I posted that this indeed was shaping up to be a classic SEMI "5-9er"   Hoping trends continue to align with Euro/GEFS/NCEP maps which have Marshall in the 10-12" range by Wed morning (prolly includes a little LES follow-on after the SLP heads northeast of MI)

Indeed. I can see these totals being upped more possibly as the storm gathers.

 

FWIW: NOAA extended the snow for me even more so into Tuesday am.

[jaster220]

Sigh

 

About what?? You're in a Warning. Unless you'd like to trade headlines

[St Paul Storm]

SREF 09z plumes with a dramatic increase at MSP. Mean up 11.3” with 3 big dogs over 20”. Only 2 models under 5” with most between 7-15”.

 

Model chaos

[jaster220]

Indeed. I can see these totals being upped more possibly as the storm gathers.

 

FWIW: NOAA extended the snow for me even more so into Tuesday am.

 

Sweet! I see a poster (who measures for DTX/DTW) said he got 3.8" last night and DTW scored 3.6" with some isolated reports of 5-6" from the surprise clipper last night. Most of the Mitt should be in great shape for the arctic blast.

 

Meanwhile, the incongruities of GRR's headlines are again blatantly obvious. In Nov it went from a Bliz Warn in Chicago to a WWA in SWMI.

 

[shakjen]

Tom

Think LOT will add another row of counties into advisory and change some of those to the north to warnings?

 

Can't deny it, South trend is for real...12z GEFS coming in juiced and South...Chicago and the rest of the CWA may be reeling one in after all....

[james1976]

Can't deny it, South trend is for real...12z GEFS coming in juiced and South...Chicago and the rest of the CWA may be reeling one in after all....

Every single one of those give me a solid hit

[james1976]

True...little too warm, but you should get a plowable snow. That south trend really helped your area. I would say a 4-8" call for your area sounds legit.

 

No doubt especially with the GEFS coming in south and a bit more juiced.

[badgerwx]

Im feeling good here in SW Wisconsin!

[East Dubzz]

Not seeing much change on the 12z Euro.

[jaster220]

Latest surface with SLP position in S Canada