Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[St Paul Storm]

1/4 visibility. Pixies blowing around good. Might use my leaf blower to clear the driveway in the morning.

[gosaints]

Bands are setting up well here. Not sure double digits are on the table do to pace but should do well

[jaster220]

Guess the CF on this thing means business

 

 

NW wind gusting to 53 knots at Minot ND at23z, temp has now dropped 24 deg in half an hour there (37 to 13 F).

[East Dubzz]

Hard to tell what’s snow and what’s slow blowing around out there.

[Money]

Bands are setting up well here. Not sure double digits are on the table do to pace but should do well

Nice. Radar looks good this way I think

[jaster220]

Was fully expecting this to be a pixie pummeling. Seems the cold-n-snowy winters lately that's been the M.O. at least around here

[Niko]

Man, this thing is racing along. My skies are still crystal clear w a zero temp!

[jaster220]

8-12” forecasted here as I’m in the bullseye. Thing is moving pretty fast though...

 

Thus why fast ships were called "Clippers" in the days of old.

 

Hoping it slows enough when it heads east. Someone posted GR info showing winds in the mid-30 mph's. Several hours tomorrow morning could meet bliz criteria up your way.

[East Dubzz]

Not that it matters to me, but I find it funny that Dubuque put out a 2 hour delay for tomorrow. I understand waiting it out to see what happens, but if it’s bad enough for a delay, it’s not going to be any better with that wind. Even a storm that underperforms will have issues with the wind.

[james1976]

Biggest flakes yet with this blob coming through. Dries out after this though.

[jaster220]

Interesting insights from one R. Smith over at Amwx. There's the 70's thing happenin'

 

 

That squall line type cold front will be headed for places like PIA and CMI into central IN ... have seen many storms like this because it was very common in the 1970s when I was actually working in a forecast office, and drawing maps (and progs) -- this is why I felt strongly it would go south. They almost always bust south when they fall off the "chinook ledge" as I call it (around where it is now, too far from Rockies to sustain the chinook, warm sector turns to dust). When this gets past Iowa, it will just be all snow, any lingering rain will vanish.

[Madtown]

snowing pretty good now....most impressive is it's only 1 degree still...never seen something like this.

[gosaints]

Nice. Radar looks good this way I think

You will do well. Its puking snow right now. Couple more hours of this good stuff and we will see what the stuff out west brings

[jaster220]

Rumor is TWC has increased totals for BC to 7-13" (and that's not including follow-on LES)

[jaster220]

RGEM very generous with the moisture over SWMI

 

[gosaints]

Pure amazing right now

[East Dubzz]

Ripping right now!

[jaster220]

^ sweet!

 

1st acknowledgement by GRR of changes

 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Based on radar...observations and latest model data we delayed the
onset of the heavier snow tonight and lower the overnight
accumulations with this update. We did bump up the amounts for
Monday so the overall storm total amounts did not change much. We
are still looking at an impactful storm rolling in later tonight
and more so on Monday. The combination of inch per hour
rates...wind and very low wind chills will all combine to lead to
the hazard. There is even some weakness in the stability showing
up in the guidance which will help support the higher snow rates.
Guidance is somewhat variable on the strength of the winds later
tonight and on Monday...but confident is rather high on gusts
topping 30 mph. It does look like the direction will be shifting
considerably since the storm tracks eastward right through the
CWA Monday into Tuesday.

[james1976]

3.9"
Should top 4" but its drying out

[Niko]

^ sweet!

 

1st acknowledgement by GRR of changes

Beautiful

[Niko]

RGEM very generous with the moisture over SWMI

 

Here as well. That easily spits out a 6-9" snowfall.

[Madtown]

That's a lot of dry air...bust?

[Grizzcoat]

gusts to 69 mph at the Corn Palace in Mitchell,SD

[Wxmidatlantic]

gusts to 69 mph at the Corn Palace in Mitchell,SD

Looking at those winds.

 

 

[VMB443]

Pouring snow- strong wind - this is great!

[VMB443]

Visibility poor - looks blizzard like out there.

[Tom]

Woke up to 2.9" of pure powder this morning.  It's been snowing moderately with visibility under a mile at times...pixie dust stuff out there, however, about a couple hours ago when I woke up and flipped the light on outside on the deck the flake size was medium.  Not sure we reach those higher totals and maybe top out near 4".  Back edge of the snow is racing eastward already.

[VMB443]

Continues to pour snow, heaviest I have seen all morning right now, they are saying a dry slot may be moving in which would limit totals, we'll see what happens - even if it does this has been the most impressive storm I've seen in a long time.  It's hard to tell how much snow we've gotten right now, it's really blowing all over the place, my guess would be a good six inches or so.

[dubuque473]

We did not get much, looks like a few inches. Pretty warm at 11 degrees with no wind...tempted to go out and clear everything and call it good enough before the wind arrives.

[Tom]

Continues to pour snow, heaviest I have seen all morning right now, they are saying a dry slot may be moving in which would limit totals, we'll see what happens - even if it does this has been the most impressive storm I've seen in a long time.  It's hard to tell how much snow we've gotten right now, it's really blowing all over the place, my guess would be a good six inches or so.

Radar loop looked like you had some very heavy returns all throughout the night.  How much do you have OTG?  There is somewhat of a bust on the models which suggested there would be more Lehs and I'm not really seeing it on radar at the moment.  Could change as winds veer more easterly later today.

[shakjen]

Have 2.5 inches here. Blowing pretty good, especially the open areas.

[gosaints]

Eyeballing 7 inches gonna head out and get some measurements soon. Coming down good now maybe pick up another inch or so today

[VMB443]

Radar loop looked like you had some very heavy returns all throughout the night.  How much do you have OTG?  There is somewhat of a bust on the models which suggested there would be more Lehs and I'm not really seeing it on radar at the moment.  Could change as winds veer more easterly later today.

 

I just went out to measure, kind of hard with the drifting involved, but I chose a good spot and that had me at 6" - MKX saying we're in for a lull and then this afternoon should bring some more snow - actually a lull might be nice, things are a mess, and it would be good to have a little break to get things cleaned up before anything comes this afternoon. I haven't seen any snow that resembles lake effect snow at this point, the flakes have all been fairly small, just a lot of them!

[Wartburger]

All this soft powdery snow will be easy to blow around if the wind picks up today like they are forecasting.

[Tom]

I just went out to measure, kind of hard with the drifting involved, but I chose a good spot and that had me at 6" - MKX saying we're in for a lull and then this afternoon should bring some more snow - actually a lull might be nice, things are a mess, and it would be good to have a little break to get things cleaned up before anything comes this afternoon. I haven't seen any snow that resembles lake effect snow at this point, the flakes have all been fairly small, just a lot of them!

Not to bad from a Clipper system, right??  Looks like a defo band should form later today and clip SE WI and into parts of NE IL so like you said, we may add some more snow late this afternoon.

[brianc400]

3.5" in my yard when I left the house at 5:30. Nowhere near the 6-9" warning criteria that caused cancelled schools.

 

Some schools around here did late start instead. That looks smart in hindsight, especially since we can expect a couple of days cancelled for the cold this week.

[St Paul Storm]

Still snowing here and radar has been backbuilding for hours. Haven’t been outside yet but I’d say at least 4” here. Drifting in spots. Schools cancelled in the metro.

[SE Wisconsin]

Just got through snow-blowing the driveway.  Around 5" here in the NW burbs or Milwaukee.  Only very light snow now,  Seems like the models really are struggling and overstating the snow amounts this season.  Just don't see us getting the 8"-12" that was forecast last night.   

[Madtown]

...bust

[GDR]

Clippers don’t normally produce 12+ inches of snow and plus the models have been overdoing amounts this winter.