February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[TT-SEA]

Wow!  The WRF actually shows snow here tomorrow morning.  I'll have to see it to believe it.

 

 

Good catch.   I saw the precip but did not check the temp.    Might be a favorable time of the day... then it warms up in the early afternoon... and then cold air arrives by late afternoon.

[Esquimalt]

That would singlehandedly ruin any prospects of snow here.

Lol yeah.  In these sorts of scenarios they wait until the event is wrapping up to add the warning lol

[GHweatherChris]

Total snow from 10 p.m - 1 a.m.

 

Resorting to the shittty WRF model now all of a sudden, weird!!

[snow_wizard]

Another interesting thing the WRF has been hinting at is a NW / east wind convergence tomorrow evening over King County.  Could be interesting.

[Requiem]

How are things looking for PDX snow-wise on Monday with these new updates?

[snow_wizard]

I just hope the EURO sticks to its guns tonight. I don't care for the limited snow on the WRF. 

 

The WRF is actually pretty good.

[Esquimalt]

Big WRF run for southern VI tonight. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Monday at 7am, 00z HRDPS has a deformation band forming but on the east slopes of the Cascades. However it curls back west to SEA in the afternoon.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The WRF was way too aggressive at bringing the cold air in on previous runs. Yesterday's 0z had sub-freezing 925mb temperatures here this morning. Tonights 0z has them arriving near midnight tonight. Still plenty cold tomorrow morning, but you wouldn't want to see it pushed back another 12 hours.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The ultra high res models show Seattle area getting almost nothing. Nam 3k and the hrdps. R2D2 look good though.

[TT-SEA]

Resorting to the shittty WRF model now all of a sudden, weird!!

 

 

Its what is coming out now.   I am just grabbing whatever is updating.   

 

The WRF is usually quite bad.   But its more information available for us to decipher.  

[bainbridgekid]

Snowfall on the WRF through 4 AM Monday.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Convection lottery commencing in about 24 hours, good luck to everyone!!

[TT-SEA]

The WRF was way too aggressive at bringing the cold air in on previous runs. Yesterday's 0z had sub-freezing 925mb temperatures here this morning. Tonights 0z has them arriving near midnight tonight. Still plenty cold tomorrow morning, but you wouldn't want to see it pushed back another 12 hours.

 

 

 

This is so common with the WRF.

 

Its almost always too aggressive with cold air penetration at the onset of events.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z HRDPS snowfall through Monday 4pm.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh My God

 

[snow_wizard]

Not sure why the WRF map somebody else posted is so lame.  The ones I've looked at are pretty decent for King County.

[Bryant]

Not sure why the WRF map somebody else posted is so lame. The ones I've looked at are pretty decent for King County.

Intentionally selective

[HighlandExperience]

Not sure why the WRF map somebody else posted is so lame.  The ones I've looked at are pretty decent for King County.

 

 Here is the 12km map. Looks like a solid 1-4 inches east of 167. East King County does decent. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is going to blow up. I love it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is going to blow up. I love it.

 

Did you see the map I posted?!

[snow_wizard]

OMG!  The thing for later next week is amazing on this run.  Worlds better than the 12z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[snow_wizard]

 Here is the 12km map. Looks like a solid 1-4 inches east of 167. East King County does decent. 

 

 

Very decent.  This is just the beginning too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG!  The thing for later next week is amazing on this run.  Worlds better than the 12z.

 

Yeah, its snow up here pretty much non-stop from hour 108-180. Then maybe a 24 hour warm up to 35 degree rain here, but up north you guys will still be in business. Have that low drop dig a little harder around hour 204 and we'll be into a full on blast.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This is going to blow up. I love it.

I wouldn't be surprised if you did better than me but you deserve it after all you been through this year.

[HighlandExperience]

Very decent.  This is just the beginning too!

 

This whole month might surpass December 2008. Finally low solar paying off. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nice looking outflow during the day tomorrow, this could be a midnight high sort of a day:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is pretty decent as far as the GEM goes. Snow event dropping south Friday night-Saturday. Some cold air coming back toward the end. Never truly warms up.

[Requiem]

This whole month might surpass December 2008. Finally low solar paying off.

 

I hope this month surprises us all, though I don’t think it’ll surpass 12/08. At least probably not, but you never know.

[umadbro]

This whole month might surpass December 2008. Finally low solar paying off.

Do some people not realize just how high the bar 2008 set?

[Deweydog]

Maps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest hawkstwelve]

WRF continues it's march eastward with the main N/S precip band.

 

Although, it is the WRF... the same model that a few days ago everyone decried as one of the worst models when it was showing diddly squat.

 

Again, it's painfully obvious that no one should put any stock in a singular model, run, map, etc. It's clear the models have no idea what's going to happen.

 

This type of conundrum leads to good 'ol fashioned reliance on radar/surface analysis tomorrow and tomorrow night!

[Esquimalt]

Nice looking outflow during the day tomorrow, this could be a midnight high sort of a day:

 

Look at the WSW flow meeting the north east.  Theres bound to be some convergence, at least over the peninsula tomorrow 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TT-SEA]

Intentionally selective

People wanted to know timing.    I posted the maps for each 3 hour period.

 

You cannot come on and here and call me out for the maps that don't look awesome because I have been posting literally everything. Hundreds of good snowfall maps. I post them as they come. No matter what they show.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Very snowy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amplification never gets there though which is why we never go full arctic in the believable range. 

[dairyd]

The WRF was way too aggressive at bringing the cold air in on previous runs. Yesterday's 0z had sub-freezing 925mb temperatures here this morning. Tonights 0z has them arriving near midnight tonight. Still plenty cold tomorrow morning, but you wouldn't want to see it pushed back another 12 hours.

 

 

Seems verified, mesoscales work best when they have good data in their boundary conditions (as the storm approaches):

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Fraser outflow gradient now up to -18mb.