East Dubzz Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Alright, you all want a thread... you all get one! I also included Monday’s event, though most of us will be looking at rain with that one. However, after that, there are two potential systems to move through the area. The first one is on Tuesday / Wednesday. Models had a better looking wave coming through a few days ago, but they have since backed off. There are still some signs of life, though. The GFS has some ice in far SE Iowa and northern Illinois, but the storm doesn’t organize well. The Euro is a little better organized with some snow in eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Michigan, but it is showing some heavier ice in northern Missouri, central Illinois, and parts of Indiana. CMC is showing some mixed precipitation across a wide area for a while. Not sure on any other models. Models are still very unsure what to do with this energy. As for the next wave, the Euro has a SLP developing and heading from Nebraska, to N Missouri/SE Iowa, to western Wisconsin. Brings substantial amounts of snow & ice to the Midwest. CMC also has a big storm across the Midwest, though the SLP is further south. That stuff doesn’t matter to much at this point, though. 12z GFS, on the other hand, keeps the storm pretty well south of here. In other words, the models are continuing to show multiple disturbances next week, with several models showing the potential for a snowstorm for at least some people in this sub forum. But... that’s about the only thing that’s consistent at this point. Discuss! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 GFS actually a little stronger with the Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning disturbance. Still pretty weak overall, but brings some mentionable snow to northern Iowa & SE Iowa, and some ice accumulations to far SE Iowa and central Illinois. First two attachments are for the first disturbance on Tuesday / Wednesday. 18z GFS also has the later week storm coming in as well. The second two attachments are for that storm. The snow totals are for just that storm, but the ice one is a combination of the two. As always, this is obviously far out, but just posting the info so people can see a little of what’s going on. Probably best not to post on Facebook yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 NWS Hastings mentioning a stronger storm from the Euro next Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest GFS is also now showing this. Time for a storm around here, been awhile. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Looks like I just have to grin and bear it through this warm spell. Thankfully the base on the trails up here looks good and well trafficed, it should hold up to rain and heat much better than the stuff that hasn't been driven on. At least I hope so. The heat isn't a problem, too much, but that rain. If it can stay away on monday and we get a tenth of an inch or less I'll be so happy. I'm a little above the WI/IL border, this last month has been nailbiting with a lot of these storms having the models show me I'm going to get rain and putting me right on the line. Is there some sort of meteorology system for estimating how much snow you're going to lose given temp, precip, etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Euro has the cutoff over MY COUNTY? What??? Wow that NEVER happens. Sarcasm. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Local forecast says 1-3” Wednesday night and 3-5” Thursday. This is getting my interest up. Still a long ways out. At least the pattern looks more conducive to storminess in the Central Plains. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 They’re throwing out forecasts already? That’s ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 NWS Hastings mentioning a stronger storm from the Euro next Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest GFS is also now showing this. Time for a storm around here, been awhile.That one is going to be a big one. The FV3 has had this system showing for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 That one is going to be a big one. The FV3 has had this system showing for awhile.I always feel better when the Euro is on board. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 The Thursday system has a chance to put the hammer down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 The bait is getting within nibbling range for this fish.... lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 The bait is getting within nibbling range for this fish.... lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 I’d be lying if I said I knew what was going on, but the GFS does show some snow in northern Iowa and around HWY 30 on Wednesday. That’s a weird set-up for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 ICON with a nice snowstorm for Thursday and Canadian with an ominous looking ice storm. This looks to get crazy next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 GFS also has the storm again. Pretty warm. Looks like a lot of ice around HWY 20 and over to Chicago. That doesn’t really matter too much right now, though. The models are definitely latching onto the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 GFS also has the storm again. Pretty warm. Looks like a lot of ice around HWY 20 and over to Chicago. That doesn’t really matter too much right now, though. The models are definitely latching onto the storm.Gem also has it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 hitting thebtrauls 7 and 8th bring on the snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 00z euro good from i80 and north for Nebraska Thursday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 This week is going to be a tough forecast, esp across those who live near the MW/GL's region. Models have been trending with more blocking across SE Canada and slowing the stronger mid week system. Check out the last 3 runs off the 00z EPS and you can see this clearly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 The difference between the GFS & NAM at HR 84 is hilarious. GFS snowing a good amount of ice on Wednesday in SE Iowa/NE Missouri, just north of central Illinois, & northern Indiana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Good luck nailing down this pattern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 CMC are actually pretty similar as far as the track of the storm in this area. Take the low through southern Missouri/N Arkansas, to southern Indiana area. ICON not totally far off either, but a less generous snow shield. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 I just hope this isn't a hard cutter like the euro has been showing. Update: The FV3 is shearing the crap out of the energy as it moves east out of the Rockies, so it's really no better than a hard cutter. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 I just hope this isn't a hard cutter like the euro has been showing. Update: The FV3 is shearing the crap out of the energy as it moves east out of the Rockies, so it's really no better than a hard cutter.I suppose a broken clock is right twice a day, but I don’t even look at the FV3 model anymore. That thing has been trash. I remember when the big clipper system that just came through disappeared on it when we were inside 84 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Euro showing some pretty nasty ice similar to the GFS on Wedneday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Fve has been a joke all winter so be Cautious 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Looks like it takes the ol’ Oklahoma to Chicago-ish track on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Looks like it takes the ol’ Oklahoma to Chicago-ish track on the Euro.Gets down to 987 in MI at 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Gets down to 987 in MI at 144Yeah, SLP really amped up once it moved into Illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 12z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 How’s the ice look on the euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 How’s the ice look on the euro?I know it’s pretty nasty in some parts of eastern Iowa and Missouri and northern Illinois, but I have been busy and didn’t get to take a great look at it yet. I’ll post the ice here in a few minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 That was a bummer run. The surface low certainly tracks farther southeast, a track typically good for eastern Iowa, but the 850 zero line hasn't budged an inch from the last run and remains parked between Waterloo and Cedar Rapids during much of the event. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 We got the GFS/GGEM/Ukie all less amplified and South while the Euro is amped and juiced for the primary strong late week system. Occasionally this season, the Euro has been too amped and often weakened as we got closer to the event. Wonder if this time it scores a coupe? Would like to see the 12z EPS in a bit to see what shifting in SLP track are shown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 That was a bummer run. The surface low certainly tracks farther southeast, a track typically good for eastern Iowa, but the 850 zero line hasn't budged an inch from the last run and remains parked between Waterloo and Cedar Rapids during much of the event.Can’t be too bummed about a run this far out, especially with details like that. Things will certainly change with this system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Money, Here’s the ice... the site doesn’t have an accumulated ice function (or any beyond 6-hour intervals), which I don’t like. But the image I am going to attach is basically where the heaviest axis of ice falls. Ice is the .20-.35” range, along with the snow that fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 We got the GFS/GGEM/Ukie all less amplified and South while the Euro is amped and juiced for the primary strong late week system. Occasionally this season, the Euro has been too amped and often weakened as we got closer to the event. Wonder if this time it scores a coupe? Would like to see the 12z EPS in a bit to see what shifting in SLP track are shown. What's it look like when it comes in south? Rain, mix, or actual snow? I'm really bummed I don't have anyone to snowmobile with right now. If this waited just one more week I would have been a happy sledder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 The GFS, Euro, & CMC (I’m not sure about other models, as this is just off memory) are also showing some accumulations late Tuesday / early Wedneday over here. Interesting dynamic setting up. Won’t be much of a snow producer, but the ice could cause plenty of issues if it ends up happening. Luckily, I believe the ice is south of me at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 What's it look like when it comes in south? Rain, mix, or actual snow? I'm really bummed I don't have anyone to snowmobile with right now. If this waited just one more week I would have been a happy sledder.GFS & CMC look to bring a widespread 2-4” of snow in this area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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