February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Requiem]

I don’t get it, how hard is it for one storm to give all of PDX the goods this year?

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah hate to admit it but that 12z euro run is not good news for here. The trend on the FV3 is also ridiculous. The other models are still way south but they will probably end up playing catch up.  Should not peak this early. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS and ICON are the models I am riding with right now. The EURO looks like hot trash past Monday.

[ShawniganLake]

Not playing mind games. Factoring in the obvious trends. No way to logically ignore that.

Do you need to say the same thing 15 times though. It's going north in your opinion. We get it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The trend is everything at this point.    There is no trolling here... its just logical.

 

And I am always accused of focusing on things I like... which is the opposite of ignoring good news.   

 

Side note... you seem to fit that description more than me.   

 

There is no consistent trend in the models. Both the 12z GFS and ICON were further south than their 06z runs. The EURO has been a steaming pile of garbage the last two weeks, as has the FV3. I'm not saying they won't be right, but saying there is some kind of clear trend is factually incorrect. Not to mention the GEM which has been consistent showing everything much further south.

[Perturbed Member]

The GFS and ICON are the models I am riding with right now. The EURO looks like hot trash past Monday.

 

Yeah the euro hasn't been very impressive in consistency the past few days, GFS has been very consistent. However the FV3 really looks like it has caught onto something and that involves going way north and the latest euro looks a lot like the 12z FV3. We can hope they trend back south but it seems pretty ominous.

[TT-SEA]

Do you need to say the same thing 15 times though. It's going north in your opinion. We get it

 

 

I would have said it once... but I am being told that I am wrong and this is totally different than last week.     That is just denial.

[Requiem]

Alright, still not losing hope so early.

[TT-SEA]

There is no consistent trend in the models. Both the 12z GFS and ICON were further south than their 06z runs. The EURO has been a steaming pile of garbage the last two weeks, as has the FV3. I'm not saying they won't be right, but saying there is some kind of clear trend is factually incorrect. Not to mention the GEM which has been consistent showing everything much further south.

 

 

Comparing to the 00Z runs... the GFS, FV3, ECMWF, GEM, and the ICON all clearly trended north.    If you want to identify clear trends then you should probably ignore the 06Z and 18Z runs.

 

The ECMWF has been steadily marching north with each run over the last couple days.  

 

A few more hours to deny all of this... and then the 00Z runs will come out.   

[wxmet]

I would have said it once... but I am being told that I am wrong and this is totally different than last week. That is just denial.

But you are wrong that’s the point. You have a misunderstanding of upper level patterns. Even if this does park over Seattle that doesn’t mean the setup is the same. That’s what you’re not getting.

[TacomaWaWx]

Forecast models have been all over the place this month, really hard to say what will really happen, Seattle might get hit, Portland might get hit, this whole thing may trend too far south for anyone to see a flake and maybe too far north and we all see rain. Really hard to say more than 3 days out. Recall the 11th of this month when we were supposed to see 12” possibly in Seattle area ended up being half that for many and cold rain, just be patient and don’t get your hopes up too high for anything!

[ShawniganLake]

[Perturbed Member]

Alright, still not losing hope so early.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Comparing to the 00Z runs... the GFS, FV3, ECMWF, GEM, and the ICON all clearly trended north.    If you want to identify clear trends then you should probably ignore the 06Z and 18Z runs.

 

The ECMWF has been steadily marching north with each run over the last couple days.  

 

A few more hours to deny all of this... and then the 00Z runs will come out.   

 

You may be right. You must be having a stressful vacation though or something because you have had a terrible attitude this week. And you seem to delight in the pain of others. Rooting for TWL to get screwed again...

[TT-SEA]

But you are wrong that’s the point. You have a misunderstanding of upper level patterns. Even if this does park over Seattle that doesn’t mean the setup is the same. That’s what you’re not getting.

 

The trough will likely dig a little more offshore than even that is shown now and spread precip much farther north... that is precisely what happened with the big event last week.    It is actually the same in that regard.   

[bainbridgekid]

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Does most of that around Seattle fall Saturday night or is it scattered over the whole weekend?

[Requiem]

Remember Seattle’s westward trend? That ended up being the storm that dropped 3-8 inches of many parts of the sound? Or the massive northward trend right before Seattle got slammed a couple weeks ago?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The trough will likely dig a little more offshore than even that is shown now and spread precip much farther north... that is precisely what happened with the big event last week.    It is actually the same in that regard.   

 

This post proves you have no idea the factors coming together to create this modeled pattern. It is a completely different situation/setup to the one last week.

[TT-SEA]

You may be right. You must be having a stressful vacation though or something because you have had a terrible attitude this week. And you seem to delight in the pain of others. Rooting for TWL to get screwed again...

 

 

What the are you talking about?    How am I cheering for TWL to be screwed?   

 

If I could pay $1,000 for this to be focused from Portland to Eugene... then I would gladly pay it.     I want nothing more than for Eugene to take the brunt of this storm.  

 

This is a ridiculous comment.    I am not here to lead a circle-jerk for emotional snow lovers.   It is what it is.    People from Olympia northward to Vancouver BC are in the sweet spot right now when considering the trends.   I cannot change that and will not ignore it.

[Jesse]

EPS will be telling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What the are you talking about?    How am I cheering for TWL to be screwed?   

 

If I could pay $1,000 for this to be focused from Portland to Eugene... then I would gladly pay it.     I want nothing more than for Eugene to take the brunt of this storm.  

 

This is a ridiculous comment.    I am not here to lead a circle-jerk for emotional snow lovers.   It is what it is.    People from Olympia northward to Vancouver BC are in the sweet spot right now when considering the trends.   I cannot change that and will not ignore it.

 

This setup is completely different than the one around February 10-12th. The end result MAY end up in the snow being focused in the same location, but there are different factors at play.

[TacomaWaWx]

No matter how much snow falls in Seattle or Portland I’m going up to Mt.Constitution on Orcas Island Sunday, they should have some snow up at 2400’ so I’ll see snow either way but hope everyone gets what they want weather wise the next few days, and if not there’s next winter!

[TT-SEA]

This post proves you have no idea the factors coming together to create this modeled pattern. It is a completely different situation/setup to the one last week.

 

 

Good... I know nothing at all.    I honestly hope I am 100% wrong.   

 

I guess I cannot recognize a trend to dig the trough more offshore and spread precip farther north.    That is just an illusion.    

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

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Can you please post the 240 hour maps?

[TT-SEA]

EPS will be telling.

 

 

Here is Monday afternoon... clear northward shift.

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good... I know nothing at all.    I honestly hope I am 100% wrong.   

 

I guess I cannot recognize a trend to dig the trough more offshore and spread precip farther north.    That is just an illusion.    

 

The block was not undercut in the previous event. Different factors at play. Again not saying you aren't going to end up being right, but you are ignoring a key pattern difference. 

[TT-SEA]

Here is the EPS on day 7... the ECMWF operational is definitely on its own with the ridge solution.   No support at all from the EPS.    

 

[TT-SEA]

The block was not undercut in the previous event. Different factors at play. Again not saying you aren't going to end up being right, but you are ignoring a key pattern difference. 

 

 

It does not really matter to me about the big picture at just 4 days out... because it appears to be playing out almost exactly the same on a micro level over the PNW.  

 

What happens after this coming event will be very different than last time... I understand that. 

[HighlandExperience]

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Wow when does most of that fall?

[TacomaWaWx]

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dang snow Saturday and Sunday possibly right when I gotta drive from Tacoma to Anacortes

[TT-SEA]

Wow when does most of that fall?

 

Some of it falls tomorrow and Saturday but temps look very marginal... and its in the low 40s on Saturday afternoon so there will be a clean slate again at that point.

 

Then the ECMWF shows some type of convergence over Seattle on Sunday morning...

 

[bainbridgekid]

Some of it falls tomorrow and Saturday but temps look very marginal... and its in the low 40s on Saturday afternoon so there will be a clean slate again at that point.

 

Then the ECMWF shows some type of convergence over Seattle on Sunday morning...

 

That's a beautiful CZ signature. I'm liking my chances of seeing snow Saturday night.

[wxmet]

It does not really matter to me about the big picture at just 4 days out... because it appears to be playing out almost exactly the same on a micro level over the PNW.

 

What happens after this coming event will be very different than last time... I understand that.

Not caring about the big picture is a problem because the upper levels are determining what’s happening at the surface. The previous event was not an undercutting one. This trough will have a much harder time getting neutrally (like the previous event) or negatively tilted as a result. It can, however, not sag as far south or dig farther west which would induce poleward progression which depends on the retrogression of the Hudson Bay vortex.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The GFS and ICON are the models I am riding with right now. The EURO looks like hot trash past Monday.

Yeah the euro hasn't been very impressive in consistency the past few days, GFS has been very consistent. However the FV3 really looks like it has caught onto something and that involves going way north and the latest euro looks a lot like the 12z FV3. We can hope they trend back south but it seems pretty ominous.

I'll be riding with the UKMET until it says otherwise. We lost the UKMET pretty early to the northward trend last time around so for it to still keep it's southern solution means something. If there's ever a time for it to live up to its billing as the 2nd best model in the world inside 5 days, then now is the time. Go Queen UKMET, Go.

[TT-SEA]

Not caring about the big picture is a problem because the upper levels are determining what’s happening at the surface. The previous event was not an undercutting one. This trough will have a much harder time getting neutrally (like the previous event) or negatively tilted as a result. It can, however, not sag as far south or dig farther west which would induce poleward progression which depends on the retrogression of the Hudson Bay vortex.

 

 

I get all of that... and yet still think it will end up playing out like the last event in WA and OR given the model trends at this point.  

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s still hard too tell if temps are going to be cold enough for snowfall on Saturday Night-Sunday morning for Puget Sound region or if it’ll be 500-1000’ kind of event, reminds me of snow last February, was snowing but too warm to stick until nighttime then we got a couple inches of snow and it melted off mostly the next day, snow events the next few days are very marginal and if it does snow go and enjoy it since it won’t stick around long due to late February being slightly warmer.

[MossMan]

Today has been fun! Won’t be many more of these snow debates happening for another 6-7 months after next week.

[TT-SEA]

It’s still hard too tell if temps are going to be cold enough for snowfall on Saturday Night-Sunday morning for Puget Sound region or if it’ll be 500-1000’ kind of event, reminds me of snow last February, was snowing but too warm to stick until nighttime then we got a couple inches of snow and it melted off mostly the next day, snow events the next few days are very marginal and if it does snow go and enjoy it since it won’t stick around long due to late February being slightly warmer.

 

 

If there is convergence on Sunday morning like the ECMWF shows... it will be cold enough for all snow.  

[TacomaWaWx]

If there is convergence on Sunday morning like the ECMWF shows... it will be cold enough for all snow.

Well, no matter what happens Saturday-Tuesday will be interesting to watch!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I get all of that... and yet still think it will end up playing out like the last event in WA and OR given the model trends at this point.  

 

Would it be a true statement that the EURO is the only model you really pay attention to?