February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[snow_wizard]

Things are about as even as they could be for the 2013-present period. Eugene, Salem, Portland, Olympia, Seattle, and Bellingham have all had moments of glory and massive disappointment.

 

Now this stupid storm is gonna make someone due again.

 

I have to agree.  There have been some great moments for all.  The number of decent cold waves during the period has actually been impressive.

 

The first five years I lived in Covington I didn't have a single month average below 40 degrees!  Things have sure gotten better since then.

[jakerepp]

Weather app shows 4” Sunday into Monday and all snow. 200% lock now.

 

Yep. Guy at lunch today confirmed it. His phone showed snow on Sunday and Monday for Seattle. Who cares that is shows a high temp of 44 on Sunday, there was a snowflake icon. 

[snow_wizard]

afternoon everyone. just been seeing our normal showery days here in seattle with cold lingering but im hearing of models going batshit for monday with snow. what's going on so far?

 

Huge uncertainty.  Three models have shown a foot for Seattle on Monday.  Some only a little, but colder.

[Blizzard777]

Friend down in Prescott Az!

[jakerepp]

Friend down in Prescott Az!

 

SNOW ENVY!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Deweydog]

Breezy south wind!

 

This keeps up it’s gonna blow that low north...

[Esquimalt]

Wow GFS ensemble mean drops to -8 here on March 2nd.  

[MossMan]

Safe to say I picked a good spot to move to. 520’ elevation definitely helped today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, they got about 5" with the 12-14-16 storm. I guess they won with that, but it feels like it's been a really long time since they've seen 6"+ from a single storm. They actually did worse in 2013-14 than the rest of the valley.

 

I am pretty sure Salem got over 6" total in February 2014, but definitely not on one day. They were kind of in the dry slot on 2/6/14, Albany and Lebanon got buried that day, but Salem only got about 2-4", they had probably 2-3" more the next day and maybe 1-2" on 2/8. 

 

Salem was really unlucky on 12/6/13 too, they only had about 1" and the line for 6"+ started about 10 miles south of town. 

 

Parts of North Salem got up to 10" of snow on 12/20/08, but South Salem had mostly ZR, very sharp gradient across the city Basically a line from Silverton Rd north had a ton of snow, south of that line was a pretty sharp gradient and lots of ice. The 12/22/08 now event dropped 6-8" though across the area. 

[BLI snowman]

Parts of Salem saw 10" from one storm in Dec 2008.

 

Maybe the northern part of the city between the 20th and 22nd. Most of town was on the fence for the first half of that storm though.

[Perturbed Member]

Bad news  ! NAVGEM trended way north. From about Tijuana to now OR/CA border. Should be in Vancouver BC by 00z runs.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I have to agree. There have been some great moments for all. The number of decent cold waves during the period has actually been impressive.

 

The first five years I lived in Covington I didn't have a single month average below 40 degrees! Things have sure gotten better since then.

Yeah, it's become clear that fears the dismal 1999-2005 period reflected a "new normal" were completely unfounded.

 

2006-2019 has been so much better overall.

[bainbridgekid]

Seattle NWS responded to a Twitter question about the Euro run with this:

 

"There's probably a one in five chance that that particular frontal wave develops into something significant, worth keeping an eye on it."

 

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1099081266845110273?fbclid=IwAR2Ouvox5WKWV6sQ9FJpKKwlgaGIfE4Fv04NFGJld4vQ3WOp6oHtBMKgA64

[Requiem]

Bad news ! NAVGEM trended way north. From about Tijuana to now OR/CA border. Should be in Vancouver BC by 00z runs.

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

18z GFS Ensemble mean keeps the low well South of Portland.

 

[snow_wizard]

The new GFS ensemble drops 850s almost to -10 on the 26th.  Insane disagreement with the Euro.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 at SLE 46 at PDX right now. Appears likely both locations match the number of sub-50 days in a row that February 1936 had. 

 

_{GFS ensembles show a mean around -6C on March 4th now at PDX.} 

[snow_wizard]

I am flat out baffled on what to think right now.  Normally when the models disagree so much they meet in the middle but not always..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles showing maybe a brief warm up with that 2nd low mid week before cooling off again.

[BLI snowman]

The new GFS ensemble drops 850s almost to -10 on the 26th.  Insane disagreement with the Euro.

 

Euro seems kind of manic depressive lately.

[Blizzard777]

Seattle NWS responded to a Twitter question about the Euro run with this:

 

"There's probably a one in five chance that that particular frontal wave develops into something significant, worth keeping an eye on it."

 

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1099081266845110273?fbclid=IwAR2Ouvox5WKWV6sQ9FJpKKwlgaGIfE4Fv04NFGJld4vQ3WOp6oHtBMKgA64

Covering the bet is always important!

[snow_wizard]

The 850s over SEA remain below -5 for the entire period on the 18z GFS ensemble.  Is that possible after what we've already had?

[snow_wizard]

Euro seems kind of manic depressive lately.

 

Going to be fun to see how this plays out!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Bad news ! NAVGEM trended way north. From about Tijuana to now OR/CA border. Should be in Vancouver BC by 00z runs.

 

 

Haha. It actually trended South from it's 12Z run. Great set of 18Z runs so far this afternoon.

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS ensembles are great. Not only did things trend a bit further south, the spread is quite a bit less. Good agreement between members that the low stays south of PDX. 

 

[joaqweri]

the NAVGEM is one model that is incredibly unreliable.

[MossMan]

Icy chunks falling from the sky now.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z GFS ensembles are great. Not only did things trend a bit further south, the spread is quite a bit less. Good agreement between members that the low stays south of PDX.

 

It doesn't get much better than that at this stage of the game. Hopefully the EURO will fully cave to leave no doubt.

[Perturbed Member]

It doesn't get much better than that at this stage of the game. Hopefully the EURO will fully cave to leave no doubt.

 

Yeah 18z euro is gonna be real interesting. 

[Bryant]

I am flat out baffled on what to think right now. Normally when the models disagree so much they meet in the middle but not always..

North!

[Requiem]

North!

East!

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah 18z euro is gonna be real interesting.

Looking forward to see that. The 6z was quite a bit different than the 12z

[Blizzard777]

Icy chunks falling from the sky now.

I gotta rock

Nothing exciting down here so I went to the Garden show in Seattle. It was pretty fantastic and got me in the mood for Spring but not before winter gives us a huge going away present

Enjoy, you picked a beautiful area to reside in.

39*

Dewpoint 32*

Gusty south winds

[Jesse]

Love the disclaimer. 

Many will enter, few will win.

[Deweydog]

Rain here. Doesn’t bode well for Sunday night/Monday.

[Perturbed Member]

Was just browsing Weather.us and apparently there is an Australian model.

 

Here is the UKMET and the Aussie model mates.

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My favorite mesoscale model of all-time the RGEM is now within view. At Sunday 4pm the 18z RGEM is more south compared to the 18z GFS.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

18z Euro through 10PM Sunday...

Excellent