February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[HighlandExperience]

This GFS run puts Seattle in a similar situation that Portland was in during the big snow of Feb 2014.  At any rate we are into insane territory now in spite of how the fine details play out.  My month to date average after yesterday was 32.9.  Just a wee bit below normal.

 

Not looking forward to cold rain this week.

[snow_wizard]

Now the GFS is digging the shortwave into the base of the block. Sort of hoping we can avoid that solution. The EPS suggests we will.

 

Yeah....last night's ECMWF and this GFS run seem dubious to me...not that ECMWF ended up bad in the end.  The EPS has been insisting on a progression as opposed to a pinch off.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hell of an overrunning event around day 8 or 9.

[Jesse]

He is an enigma. Even after getting so much snow he seems dissatisfied. I could understand that if he was not doing well compared to places around him.

From the bits of factual posts I’ve been able to piece together it appears that he is approaching the snowiest February on record for his location. Hard to be unhappy with that.

[snow_wizard]

Not looking forward to cold rain this week.

 

There will probably still be some snow too.  Precip amounts look overdone with a lot of it.

[Jesse]

Not looking forward to cold rain this week.

Aren’t you like a big time skier?

[snow_wizard]

Hell of an overrunning event around day 8 or 9.

 

Indeed.  That period looks potentially excellent.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the Weatherbell snowfall maps are much better on this run.

[HighlandExperience]

Aren’t you like a big time skier?

 

I had an injury recently. Taking a bit of a break. =)

 

Just want to see more snow in my yard 

[antipex]

Snowing here in SE Gresham from a little freak shower passing through... this was unexpected.

[ShawniganLake]

FWIW the Weatherbell snowfall maps are much better on this run.

Do their snowfall maps still have the big square blocks missing for areas near the water.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

He is an enigma. Even after getting so much snow he seems dissatisfied. I could understand that if he was not doing well compared to places around him.

He is empathetic to the folks down here who have been hosed with warmer temps and little to no snow. It’s one of those years where it feels like we are not a part of the region and in no-man’s-land. Sucks.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

FWIW the Weatherbell snowfall maps are much better on this run.

Have you checked out weathernerds?

[snow_wizard]

FV3 is quite good.  It tracks a southern branch low in NW OR with cold air in place over WA and maybe NW OR.

[snow_wizard]

Have you checked out weathernerds?

 

No...I probably don't need to burn more hours on another site either. 

[snow_wizard]

He is empathetic to the folks down here who have been hosed with warmer temps and little to no snow. It’s one of those years where it feels like we are not a part of the region and in no-man’s-land. Sucks.

 

That could be.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z ICON is progressive next weekend and marginal with mostly rain in the lowlands.

[snow_wizard]

On another note.  This cold wave has already taken out the furnace of my sister in law and nearly did so with my mother / father in law.  This has certainly tested everyone's primary methods of heating their homes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

On another note.  This cold wave has already taken out the furnace of my sister in law and nearly did so with my mother / father in law.  This has certainly tested everyone's primary methods of heating their homes.

I've went through a bit of firewood the last 2 weeks. Double of normal.

[TT-SEA]

On another note.  This cold wave has already taken out the furnace of my sister in law and nearly did so with my mother / father in law.  This has certainly tested everyone's primary methods of heating their homes.

 

How did it take out a furnace... by using it?  Must have been old and about to fail anyways.  

 

Our furnace is set to 70-72 and running most of the winter every year because its not that warm outside.    It could fail when its 20 degrees or 40 degrees outside because its running either way.  

[snow_wizard]

How did it take out a furnace... by using it?  Must have been old and about to fail anyways.  

 

Our furnace is set to 70-72 and running most of the winter every year because its not that warm outside.    It could fail when its 20 degrees or 40 degrees outside because its running either way.  

 

Just overuse I guess.  A guy I work with had his go bad too, but it was repairable.

[TT-SEA]

WRF pretty much agrees with ECMWF for the Tuesday/Wednesday system with rain for most of the lowlands and a better chance of snow up north.   

 

And highs in the low to mid 40s on Wednesday after the system moves through.  

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I've went through a bit of firewood the last 2 weeks. Double of normal.

 

Me too.  I'm glad I didn't use as much as normal early in the winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim you said the wrf was garbage.

[TT-SEA]

Me too.  I'm glad I didn't use as much as normal early in the winter.

 

 

 

If everyone heated their homes with wood burning stoves... it would be an absolute choking mess across all of the lowlands.    

 

You would never want to go outside or risk smoke inhalation.    You don't live in a remote mountain cabin.  

[TT-SEA]

Tim you said the wrf was garbage.

 

It is absolutely garbage when it disagrees with the ECMWF.     But lends support when it agrees.    If the ECMWF is different then the WRF will be wrong.  Almost every single time.   But it can be right when it agrees with the ECMWF of course.  

[ShawniganLake]

Definitely not much of a snow pattern for SE Vancouver island the next 5-6 days, given what the models are showing.

[MossMan]

So this week is all rain now? All eyes on next weekend?

[TT-SEA]

So this week is all rain now? All eyes on next weekend?

 

 

You are in the best spot for snow for the mid-week system.   Probably rain for everyone else south of you.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

if everyone heated their homes with wood burning stoves... it would be an absolute choking mess across all of the lowlands.

 

You would never want to go outside or risk smoke inhalation. You don't live in a remote mountain cabin.

Bullshit. The modern stoves are extremely clean burning. I dont even have smoke visible out my chimney.

[ShawniganLake]

if everyone heated their homes with wood burning stoves... it would be an absolute choking mess across all of the lowlands.

 

You would never want to go outside or risk smoke inhalation. You don't live in a remote mountain cabin.

Once a wood stove is up to temperature, it produces almost no smoke if used properly. Most of the time there is nothing visible coming from our chimney. However, if you had a couple million wood stoves going, it would probably get smokey.

[TT-SEA]

Bullshit. The modern stoves are extremely clean burning. I dont even have smoke viable out my chimney.

That's good.

 

But if everyone was heating their homes that way and even just 10% of people did not have a clean burning stove then it would still be a choking mess for all the populated areas.

[TT-SEA]

Once a wood stove is up to temperature, it produces almost no smoke if used properly. Most of the time there is nothing visible coming from our chimney. However, if you had a couple million wood stoves going, it would probably get smokey.

I would not want to trust 4+ million people in western WA to have clean burning stoves and use them properly. At least half of them would screw it up and it would be Beijing on a bad day all winter in the lowlands.

[GHweatherChris]

Good lord

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm not sure i can be a member of this forum anymore. The bullshit is outrageous.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good lord

Dude it's a fuckking joke.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not sure i can be a member of this forum anymore. The bullshit is outrageous.

So you trust millions of people in the Seattle area living like mountain men... in a climate that is almost always mild anyways?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So you trust millions of people in the Seattle area living like mountain men... in a climate that is almost always mild anyways?

How do you heat your home.

[TT-SEA]

How do you heat your home.

 

 

Furnace.   And sometimes use our gas fireplace inserts just for the charm.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So you trust millions of people in the Seattle area living like mountain men... in a climate that is almost always mild anyways?

What is wrong with mountain men? So everyone who heats there home with wood is a mountain man? Not everyone has a combined family income of 500k a year like you and can afford a 400 buck a month heating bill.