February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[TT-SEA]

Why do you pay attention to the ICON but not the NAM?

 

 

NAM does not go out through next weekend.    Was trying to see if there was any consensus at all.  

 

Appears to be some consensus now on a EPS type solution.    

[Requiem]

Everyone, I’m starting a Mountain Man Revolution Committee. We are going to replace every politician with mountain men instead and it will now be illegal to use anything other than a wood stove.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF going with undercutting after next weekend.     EPS disagrees though.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Everyone, I’m starting a Mountain Man Revolution Committee. We are going to replace every politician with mountain men instead and it will now be illegal to use anything other than a wood stove.

 

 

Survivalists cheer for societal breakdown.   

[crf450ish]

You'd make a very poor mountain man.

If I didn't have to worry about making money at a real job, I know I could do it. Ive done it in Alaska. If all a guy had to do is hunt to eat, gather wood to stay warm, and find water to drink and trade goods with others living the subsistence life....why, that would be a simple life that I could get used to. The fact that kids and marriage and money and bills and cars and gasoline and taxes and everything else is that is involved complicates life these days. Most people just want to try to make life as easy as possible. 

[Requiem]

Survivalists cheer for societal breakdown.   

That’s phase two. We replace politicians with the mountain men, and then take over Uzbekistan. All of the silly technology-using people are moved there, and mountain men live free among the urbanized worlds of the remaining portion of the world. No more society, and certainly no more millennial technology.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That’s phase two. We replace politicians with the mountain men, and then take over Uzbekistan. All of the silly technology-using people are moved there, and mountain men live free among the urbanized worlds of the remaining portion of the world. No more society, and certainly no more millennial technology.

Have you ever even picked up a piece of wood?

[TT-SEA]

Almost 9 a.m... time to head out and about.    Family is finally stirring.  

 

Fairly confident there will be minimal snow in my area over the next 10 days.    That makes my wife happy... which is good.   

[Requiem]

Have you ever even picked up a piece of wood?

Yes. I didn’t find it very exciting, suffice to say.

[TT-SEA]

Have you ever even picked up a piece of wood?

 

I routinely take down trees and clean up fallen trees on my property with a chainsaw!     It will be the end of me eventually.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yes. I didn’t find it very exciting, suffice to say.

Yeah the video game was much more realistic.

[Requiem]

Yeah the video game was much more realistic.

That it was!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I routinely take down trees and clean up fallen trees on my property with a chainsaw!     It will be the end of me eventually.   

Ha.

[Front Ranger]

If I didn't have to worry about making money at a real job, I know I could do it. Ive done it in Alaska. If all a guy had to do is hunt to eat, gather wood to stay warm, and find water to drink and trade goods with others living the subsistence life....why, that would be a simple life that I could get used to. The fact that kids and marriage and money and bills and cars and gasoline and taxes and everything else is that is involved complicates life these days. Most people just want to try to make life as easy as possible. 

 

I have neither a fireplace or wood stove in my current residence. 

[jcmcgaffey]

My wife and I both grew up on acereage and now we are in the city which we enjoy but also both have times we wished we were on some property with woods to take care of. Something to be said for the joy of some hard work outdoors. Still is significantly cheaper to heat up our home with gas or electric than wood as we don’t have any readily available and to bring some in would be more costly overall.

[bainbridgekid]

I have neither a fireplace or wood stove in my current residence. 

That's because you're lazy and hate hard work.

[Requiem]

I have neither a fireplace or wood stove in my current residence. 

Tsk, tsk. The Mountain Man Revolution Committee does not approve.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Most fun I had making fires was Feb 2014 

[Omegaraptor]

GFS shows temperatures warming back up closer to normal in early March.

[Requiem]

GFS shows temperatures warming back up closer to normal in early March.

A while away.

[Requiem]

Call me pampered all you like, but I still think living without the marvels of modern technology would be a pain. Yes, our ancestors did it, but now that it’s here, why do without it?

[ShawniganLake]

ECMWF going with undercutting after next weekend. EPS disagrees though.

 

Widespread Lowland snow chances seem pretty slim this week. Curious how the EPS will look but to me it feels like some type of undercutting is growing more likely

[mtep]

Call me pampered all you like, but I still think living without the marvels of modern technology would be a pain. Yes, our ancestors did it, but now that it’s here, why do without it?

Most generations for the past couple thousand years have had it a little better than their parents did. Sadly that means we all get to to put up with the same tired "back in my day, up hill both ways." Can't even escape it on a weather forum.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Call me pampered all you like, but I still think living without the marvels of modern technology would be a pain. Yes, our ancestors did it, but now that it’s here, why do without it?

You can do both. 

[Geos]

It's not over yet. The late week thing looks good on the new Euro and we still get some good cold in here during the week. Low 20s for lows Wednesday on the ECMWF. I still bet there will be some lowland snow this week.2

 

EDIT...low 20s for Thursday.

Definitely sounds like it. That Fraser outflow on 2/3 didn't waste any time dropping temps into the upper 20s. And that was with no snow cover. Would be nice to get snow levels down to a couple hundred feet.

[Phil]

42 for a high today at home. There was .04 in precip which must have been light rain.

 

81 for a high here today and sunny... the dewpoint was around 60 all day with a decent NE breeze between 10-15 mph. Absolute perfection. Warm but never felt hot... typical of Hawaii. The Kona low has been meandering to the north which is a great spot for beautiful conditions here. Models show the low shifts a bit to the west by Tuesday and pulls up tropical moisture over the Big Island with heavy rain... but here on Kauai it stays sunny and warm closer to the low. I guess as long as the Kona low hangs around then there is a chance for more cold at home. But the EPS shows it fading away in a week.

Kauai is where we stayed too when I was a kid.

 

Where are you, exactly?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Widespread Lowland snow chances seem pretty slim this week. Curious how the EPS will look but to me it feels like some type of undercutting is growing more likely

 

Yep, doesn't look interesting for anywhere along the east side of the island this week. But places on the other side of the Strait might have a shot with localized convection/convergence. Looks like the next best chance is next weekend, the perhaps with an overrunning event to end it all. I could live with that, this looks like a classic big overrunning pattern:

 

[TT-SEA]

Waiting for clothes in washer... here is the 10-15 day mean from 12Z EPS.    

 

 

[Deweydog]

My sister and ex brother-in-law’s furnace went out several years ago when they still lived in Vancouver. I wanna say it was 2006-ish? I asked when they last changed the filter and they asked “there’s a filter???”

[umadbro]

Waiting for clothes in washer... here is the 10-15 day mean from 12Z EPS.

 

 

Don't justify why you post on vacation. You do you.

[High Desert Mat?]

Anyone want to go to Hawaii and hang out on our phones the whole time? I think I’ll take the family next month and a stack of new phones just in case I drop one in the toilet or something. If we’re lucky we’ll see the beach once. If we’re lucky.

[Deweydog]

Hard to tell which is more pathetic. Repeatedly posting on a weather forum while on a Hawaiian vacation or obsessing over an overprivileged white guy with OCD and how he spends his time during a Hawaiian vacation? I’m sure Phil knows.

[Geos]

Clouds sure rolled from the north quickly. Cooled off a little as well. Coming up on 2 straight weeks of snow cover.

[Esquimalt]

Block looks like it's reorganizing at hour 240 on the euro,..wow.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to tell which is more pathetic. Repeatedly posting on a weather forum while on a Hawaiian vacation or obsessing over an overprivileged white guy with OCD and how he spends his time during a Hawaiian vacation? I’m sure Phil knows.

I stayed behind so we could get clothes in dryer. Standing in front of a washing machine waiting for it to finish is boring. Heading out now though... 1 minute walk to the beach.

[Deweydog]

I stayed behind so we could get clothes in dryer. Standing in front of a washing machine waiting for it to finish is boring. Heading out now though... 1 minute walk to the beach.

I honestly could not care less. Your time, your money.

 

Just make sure you’re here in time to post snow maps!!!

[MossMan]

Yeah let’s all hate the one person that consistently posts more maps than anyone else on the forum...makes sense...

[Bryant]

Call me pampered all you like, but I still think living without the marvels of modern technology would be a pain. Yes, our ancestors did it, but now that it’s here, why do without it?

Dude, you're 16.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Dude, you're 16.

Ya, no shyt, lol. Youre 16!!! You would be pampered no matter what anyway. Although, you have yet to go to Hawaii for vacation and spend the whole time commenting on a weather nerd forum. Give it time though, that's some real pampering.

[MikeInEverett]

It’s not like it takes that much time to check and post a few times on here.. I swear people will give Tim crap for anything!!