February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Clear blue skies and 44F here this afternoon. About a degree or two below average

 

Looks like a little outflow is starting to move into the Fraser Valley. Temps are into the 40's but the dew points are dropping

 

This follow up cold airmass has been super delayed and watered down; would have been nice had it come in a few days ago when the snow was in better shape. Ah well, can't complain after what was likely the best snowfall event of the decade around here.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty much it is. Cool weather very little to no accumulation and warmer (40’s) afternoon temps even into next weekend. So, depending on your definition of not over, this is over from real snow producer for our local overall. Sun angles are a real *****.

 

The thing next weekend has serious potential.  I think you'll be surprised how cold this week is overall.  The models are advertising a decent cold shot Wednesday night or so with some Fraser River air.

[snow_wizard]

44/34 at PDX today. Another sub-45 high.

 

I checked in with 41-29 today.  Pretty darn chilly.  It's amazing how high temps 8 degrees below normal seem like nothing after what just happened.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure how people can look at the 500mb maps for this week and say much has changed.  Looks really cold at face value.

[wx_statman]

Impressively cold morning in North Dakota on Friday (2/15).

 

-34 in Williston was 3rd latest reading since 1936 (for -34 or lower). Only later occurrences were in 1962 and 2003. 

 

-39 in Willow City was coldest reading so late in the winter since 1972.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I was looking at the sun angles for DC and its absurd that they were going to see any snow whatsoever, all instantly zapped by the sun. Hell, last year in Philly where we got three feet of snow over four weeks in March, none of it touched the ground. People need to be realistic, one sun angles are over 22º, its all over, done, finished, ended, fin.

 

Yeah....that thing is so overblown.  SEA had 18 inches of snow in March 1951 with higher sun angles than anything ever witnessed in February.

[Deweydog]

What do you think of clearing prospects tonight.

Kinda hard to see there being a much. Plenty of low level moisture.

 

#moredroughtplease!

[snow_wizard]

Impressively cold morning in North Dakota on Friday (2/15).

 

-34 in Williston was 3rd latest reading since 1936 (for -34 or lower). Only later occurrences were in 1962 and 2003. 

 

-39 in Willow City was coldest reading so late in the winter since 1972.

 

Nice company on most of those years.  In fact all 4 featured good to great winters the following season.

[Jesse]

Yeah, I was looking at the sun angles for DC and its absurd that they were going to see any snow whatsoever, all instantly zapped by the sun. Hell, last year in Philly where we got three feet of snow over four weeks in March, none of it touched the ground. People need to be realistic, one sun angles are over 22º, its all over, done, finished, ended, fin.

Yeah. I think people tend to forget that all the big east coast cities are father south than Portland and Seattle and experience higher sun angles throughout the year. Boston is close to the same latitude as Medford, OR.

 

That said, they have a more direct tap to arctic cold without topography getting in the way, which is why the higher sun angles tend to make a smaller impact on their averages, especially moving through the late winter/very early spring.

[MossMan]

Yeah....that thing is so overblown. SEA had 18 inches of snow in March 1951 with higher sun angles than anything ever witnessed in February.

I had 13” of snowfall on 2/18/18 that stuck around until 3/1/18! Sun angles are not a huge deal until mid March.

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah....that thing is so overblown.  SEA had 18 inches of snow in March 1951 with higher sun angles than anything ever witnessed in February.

I dunno, February 1834 had some VERY high sun angles.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, I was looking at the sun angles for DC and its absurd that they were going to see any snow whatsoever, all instantly zapped by the sun. Hell, last year in Philly where we got three feet of snow over four weeks in March, none of it touched the ground. People need to be realistic, one sun angles are over 22º, its all over, done, finished, ended, fin.

Yah super rare over there for them. I am with you as this whole thing is odd as I know it is usually much cooler here this time of year. The Sun does not make us much warmer here in February to affect snowfall. In fact I heard longer days are meaningless now as well. Oh well.

[Phil]

Hard to tell which is more pathetic. Repeatedly posting on a weather forum while on a Hawaiian vacation or obsessing over an overprivileged white guy with OCD and how he spends his time during a Hawaiian vacation? I’m sure Phil knows.

I don’t know for sure because smartphones weren’t around when I was in Hawaii (omg yo, time is flowing).

[Front Ranger]

Sun angles are one thing, but it definitely gets significantly more difficult to have truly cold (sub-35) highs the second half of February. Takes a very exceptional air mass.

[Deweydog]

All this talk about sun angles has me all lathered up! Do the models show any coming up???

[MossMan]

Sun angles are one thing, but it definitely gets significantly more difficult to have truly cold (sub-35) highs the second half of February. Takes a very exceptional air mass.

I did! Just last year! And in 2011!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I dunno, February 1834 had some VERY high sun angles.

Based on the models as of now nothing is showing either of those events. Sun angels do matter just a little when temps are borderline. Period!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I dunno, February 1834 had some VERY high sun angles.

Based on the models, as of today, nothing is showing either of those types of events - not even close. Sun angels and longer days do matter just a little when temps are borderline. Period! If if things were cooler at the 500mb level then I would say **** sun angles as they do not matter but when we are talking a few degrees for snow or rain it does matter. Yes, things could turn into a fridged artic with massive snowstorm, as of now, unlikely.

[Phil]

Yeah, I was looking at the sun angles for DC and its absurd that they were going to see any snow whatsoever, all instantly zapped by the sun. Hell, last year in Philly where we got three feet of snow over four weeks in March, none of it touched the ground. People need to be realistic, one sun angles are over 22º, its all over, done, finished, ended, fin.

Yeah, Sun angles don’t matter as much when the snow is actually falling (if temperatures are below freezing). Only so much insolation will make it through the cloud deck, and the most intense insolation only lasts 3-4hrs anyway. Plus, once there’s snow on the ground, much of that is reflected anyway.

 

In March 2014 we had something like 30” over 2 weeks, and many of those events accumulated on interstates as if it was mid-January. There was a foot of snow on I-95. There was even a ZR event that month that caked everything in ice (even the streets) during the middle of the day, in spite of the latent heat release from freezing and insolation.

 

That month completely changed my opinion on the sun angle stuff. I used to think it played a major role but recent years have proven otherwise.

 

Snow melt rates on sunny days, though...oh boy.

[GHweatherChris]

Doesn't look like any sun angles are in the models as of yet, maybe in March...

[Phil]

Yah super rare over there for them. I am with you as this whole thing is odd as I know it is usually much cooler here this time if year. Sun never makes us much warmer here in February. In fact I heard is longer days are meaningless now. Oh well.

...what?

[luvssnow_spokane]

[luvssnow_spokane]

[snow_wizard]

My neighbor across the street definitely won the snow lottery with the past events.  He still has solid snow cover and up to 6 inches deep in places.  Looks like it's a broad drift in his yard.

[snow_wizard]

I dunno, February 1834 had some VERY high sun angles.

 

 

Funny you should pick that year.  I happen to know of a diary that was kept by somebody in the Hudson's Bay Company that made reference to that winter and that month being epic here.

[GHweatherChris]

Based on the models, as of today, nothing is showing either of those types of events - not even close. Sun angels and longer days do matter just a little when temps are borderline. Period! If if things were cooler at the 500mb level then I would say **** sun angles as they do not matter but when we are talking a few degrees for snow or rain it does matter. Yes, things could turn into a fridged artic with massive snowstorm, as of now, unlikely.

#sunangels

[snow_wizard]

Doesn't look like any sun angles are in the models as of yet, maybe in March...

 

The PNW snow lovers cancelled the higher sun angles this year.  They can go F themselves! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The PNW snow lovers cancelled the higher sun angles this year.  They can go F themselves! 

 

I hope you're going to be around more this summer Jim.

[Guest CulverJosh]

What is lost in all of this month is how it is saving us from serious water issues that were almost a foregone conclusion in late January. February has been a boon for our friends who really need the income up there in our mountains, and those of us who may want to be able to water our lawns and such. Let us hope this pattern prevails through April so we do not have a nasty fire season whether it be man(child)-made, or by mother nature. Lots to be happy about with our weather at the moment.

[Jesse]

I checked in with 41-29 today.  Pretty darn chilly.  It's amazing how high temps 8 degrees below normal seem like nothing after what just happened.

42/32 here.

[snow_wizard]

I'm really curious about this not cold 500mb pattern some are referring to for next weekend.  What on Earth is this if not cold?

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I did! Just last year! And in 2011!

 

Well, your location is colder than most. 

 

And 2011 was a very exceptional air mass. One of the coldest on record that late.

[snow_wizard]

I hope you're going to be around more this summer Jim.

 

We'll see.  I get so wrapped up in other things.  On the other hand if ENSO can behave itself next winter has an excellent chance of being a block buster so I might be around more if things appear to be shaping up well.

[snow_wizard]

Skies are attempting to clear out here.  Just enough dry air filtered in today to maybe pull it off.  If so it should be a cold one!  At this point we want all the cold we can get.  Monthly records are at stake!

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, Sun angles don’t matter as much when the snow is actually falling (if temperatures are below freezing). Only so much insolation will make it through the cloud deck, and the most intense insolation only lasts 3-4hrs anyway. Plus, once there’s snow on the ground, much of that is reflected anyway.

 

 

Snow melt rates on sunny days, though...oh boy.

 

I whole heartedly agree on the last point especially.  It is painful how fast it melts in the sun after mid Feb.

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

I'm really curious about this not cold 500mb pattern some are referring to for next weekend.  What on Earth is this if not cold?

 

It's cold. WELL below normal. 

 

Just unlikely it will be as cold as people have already seen this month. But certainly more potential for lowland snow!

[snow_wizard]

It's cold. WELL below normal. 

 

Just unlikely it will be as cold as people have already seen this month. But certainly more potential for lowland snow!

 

Yup.  Still an outside chance it could go full blown cold, but for now it looks good enough for snow at least.

[Deweydog]

It’s gonna get COOOOOOOLD!!!!

[MossMan]

I'm really curious about this not cold 500mb pattern some are referring to for next weekend. What on Earth is this if not cold?

How does this projected 500mb pattern compare with the late February 2018 pattern?