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February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2


snow_wizard

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I don’t think I have ever experienced so much 33-36 deg rain than over the past week.

Been an unfortunate stretch in that department.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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NWS Seattle doesn’t think anyone under 500 to 1000ft will see anything all the way through the weekend.

Yep I completely agree. Very marginal at best. Not to say that some do not see a few flakes but nothing even close to what we had. Coolish but not much more.

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32 at home... and 37 and raining at SEA.   Did not expect that.   I thought the lows were supposed to be much colder over the weekend.      

 

It has barely been below freezing even at home since we left 6 days ago.   I remember posting the high/low data from the ECMWF for Randy early last week and almost every night was supposed well down into the 20s at SEA with the exception of this past Friday.   Only one night dropped below 31.

 

The SEA stats for the month are crazy... a temp departure of -7.9 degrees and yet 1.90 inches above normal for precip.    That has got to be incredibly rare... very cold AND wet at the same time.  

 

Yeah to many clouds lingering around messed with the temps.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I don’t think I have ever experienced so much 33-36 deg rain than over the past week.

 

Now that is a good week to leave town. 

 

Although I am sure there will be much more ahead too.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Keep an eye on Monday morning. ;)

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ummm...Hey guys...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For the Washington Posters...

From Historylink.org

 

This is just an excerpt.  There is a great article on some of our  best storms in this area.  Great read.

 

Here is a lead in.

 

Here is a link to the article  http://www.historylink.org/File/3681

  •  
  • Posted 1/31/2002
  •  
  • HistoryLink.org Essay 3681
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The Puget Sound region used to be known as the Mediterranean of the Pacific, a place as balmy as a Greek island, if also rainy. But other weathers, severe and historic, have challenged the Mediterranean image. During the past 150 years, the "Big Winter" of 1861-1862, the "Big Snow" of 1881, the big and heavy snow of 1916 (which collapsed the dome of Seattle's St. James cathedral), not to mention various freezes, gales, and mud events have every few years blasted away the general mildness and excited the community.

Snow Is a Page

"A fresh snowfall brings a subtle change to the music of the woods ... Now all sounds are muted, as if nature stands in awe of the great changes it has brought to the land. This is a time for the nature-lover to read the diary of the forest, for the snow is a page on which each passing animal inscribes its message." 
--Caption of a Puget Sound snowscape photographed in 1963 by Josef Scaylea

Our region is usually mild, but as J. Willis Sayre notes in his 1936 book, This City of Ours: "Seattle has been visited by a gale so strong that it blew seven railway cars off a trestle into the bay, has had a snowfall six and a third feet deep, has seen a winter temperature of four degrees below zero ..."

In 1949, Meteorologist Lawrence C. Fisher published a testament of Puget Sound's usual mildness. The 38 year veteran of the Weather Service served up a warm cocoa of statistics for his Seattle Times readers.

"Based on 56 winters of official records (our) annual winter snowfall is but 11.2 inches. This is less snow than for any place eastward across the continent of the same parallel of latitude ... Six winters in the 56 recorded have had no measurable snowfall, only traces ... In the 26 winters since the 16-inch fall of Feb. 14, 1923 the average winter snow has been only 6.9 inches."

Had he wished to join sentiment to his statistics, the weather forecaster might have also listed the seven years Seattle had a white Christmas in the 38 years he worked for the Weather Service -- in 1909, 1911, 1915, 1916, 1933, 1937, and 1946. Fisher did not fail to note the two big snows in the 56 winters since the Service began in Seattle. "Some of the deeper snows have begun in the latter part of January and reached their greatest depth in the early part of February, notably those of 1893 and 1916."

 

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We were lucky to have that stretch of cold and snow. Imagine how depressing the last three weeks would have been without it.

That’s the reality for many lowland posters from the west Portland metro southward. Although the month’s not over yet and one of the coldest Febs on record should count for something.

 

What an an amazing stretch for you guys though. Not to mention the mountains. Pretty much singlehandedly saved the ski season.

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I do feel bad as for the PDX posters. It is disappointing seeing all those amazing ECMWF runs and getting nothing.

East metro has done better than nothing. 6” at PDX proper, 7” here. But yeah gets pretty dismal moving west of I-205.

 

Would love to see this late month period deliver for everyone else.

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Snow. Melting snow.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Checking out the GFS ensembles. I am struck by how the mean continues to be well below average through the end of the month. The mean is now around -7C for several days early next week at PDX. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Checking out the GFS ensembles. I am struck by how the mean continues to be well above average through the end of the month. The mean is now around -7C for several days early next week at PDX. 

I'm assuming you meant below average.  It's funny how this pattern has been locked in so long.  But similar to our ridges lately too.  Less variability it seems.

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FV-3 is snowy across the Willamette Valley early next week. 

 

prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm assuming you meant below average.  It's funny how this pattern has been locked in so long.  But similar to our ridges lately too.  Less variability it seems.

 

Yes, sorry about that. Made the same mistake I called out the NWS for making in their AFD the other day. :)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Total snow through Wednesday afternoon... system is clearing out by Wednesday morning.    Does not appear to be any accumulating snow even in my area.  

 

ecmwf-tsnow-nw-11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It may not have been an earth shattering trough this weekend, but it did deliver some solidly cold weather. Here are the daily departures across the PNW yesterday.

 

EUG -4

PDX -6

SLE -5

MDF-9

Kfalls -8

PDT -8

SEA -5

OLY -6

BLI -5

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Total snow through Wednesday afternoon... system is clearing out by Wednesday morning.    Does not appear to be any accumulating snow even in my area.  

 

ecmwf-tsnow-nw-11.png

 

At least advisory amounts of snow for the Cascades, foothills, and blues. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wondering if the EURO is going to bust on high temps today. We need to start clearing out soon if temps in the valley are going to hit the mid-40s...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z GFS and FV3 still bringing coldest air of the season next week.

Might as well go big or go home! Let’s make this month truly historic!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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