February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So I took this picture in Coos Bay, OR yesterday JUST FOR TIM.

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow with weekend system.   There is a short-lived c-zone over King County on Saturday evening.    Back up to around 40 on Sunday.

 

[MossMan]

Had a very quick snow flurry about a half hour ago. Temp 35.8 with a DP of 31.2 so no melting at all yet today.

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow with weekend system. There is a short-lived c-zone over King County on Saturday evening. Back up to around 40 on Sunday.

 

That actually looks decent for King County. Mind posting the WA state map? Especially areas east of 405.

[TT-SEA]

That actually looks decent for King County. Mind posting the WA state map? Especially areas east of 405.

 

 

Here is the period when the snow falls in King County...

 

[BLI snowman]

Euro definitely looking colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At face value the EURO still appears to be slightly warmer than the GFS. Though it is trending chillier. 

 

Spitting out a 42/28 at SLE and 41/28 at PDX next Monday and 41/20 at SLE 41/23 at PDX for Tuesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z EURO yesterday for next Tuesday

 

 

Today

 

[TT-SEA]

Euro definitely looking colder.

 

 

Completely abandoned the idea of undercutting.   More in line with what the EPS has been showing all along.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Currently overcast but bright. 35ºF.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is really in agreement with the EPS.   Ridge building in around day 9.   

 

EPS has been very impressive lately.   All the operational runs just come around eventually.      

 

That is also why I said it would stay cold when some model runs showed it warming up over the last couple weeks.   It was not going to warm up until the EPS shows it consistently.    I have a good feeling that will happen right at the beginning of March.  

 

 

[Esquimalt]

12Z ECMWF is really in agreement with the EPS. Ridge building in around day 9.

 

EPS has been very impressive lately. All the operational runs just come around eventually.

 

That is also why I said it would stay cold when the some model runs showed it warming up. It was not going to warm until the EPS shows it consistently. I have a good feeling that will happen right at the beginning of March.

 

 

But both gfs and gem aren’t yet convinced it’s gonna warm up like that.

[Front Ranger]

Euro has definitely trended colder with the weekend trough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sky starting to lighten quite a bit now. If we break out by noon we'll hit the mid-40s like the EURO said.

[TT-SEA]

But both gfs and gem aren’t yet convinced it’s gonna warm up like that.

 

 

Does not matter... the EPS has been consistent.     It has been rock solid for the last 6 or 7 weeks with this extreme blocking pattern.

 

Every other model (including the ECMWF) eventually comes around.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

So I took this picture in Coos Bay, OR yesterday JUST FOR TIM.

 

 

There are a few trees around Victoria that looked like that at the start of the month, not sure how the handled the past 2 weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But both gfs and gem aren’t yet convinced it’s gonna warm up like that.

 

Doesn't really warm up at the surface. 

[Omegaraptor]

12Z ECMWF is really in agreement with the EPS.   Ridge building in around day 9.   

 

EPS has been very impressive lately.   All the operational runs just come around eventually.      

 

That is also why I said it would stay cold when some model runs showed it warming up over the last couple weeks.   It was not going to warm up until the EPS shows it consistently.    I have a good feeling that will happen right at the beginning of March.  

 

 

 

Please let it happen. I can't wait for spring.

 

Just keep the precipitation. That can stay. Either snow or go up to 50s.

[Front Ranger]

Just wave after wave of Arctic air into the northern Rockies/Plains this month. And it looks like it will continue right through the end of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There are a few trees around Victoria that looked like that at the start of the month, not sure how the handled the past 2 weeks.

 

It has actually been a chilly month down there with dustings of snow on 3 separate days. The south coast is very mild compared to most places in the PNW though. Mild enough the they had a freeze warning posted last night for sub-freezing temperatures. My brother's station hit 30. 

 

I was looking at the station in Coquille the town he just moved too. Their all-time low was recorded in December 1972 and again in Dec 1990 when it hit 8. However, in 1972 they had 6 straight 60+ days later that month and 8 out of 10 days hit 60 during one stretch that month. So they can really torch down there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Please let it happen. I can't wait for spring.

 

Just keep the precipitation. That can stay. Either snow or go up to 50s.

 

Not really sure why everyone keeps acting like the EURO is showing a warm pattern...I have the weather bell maps... It is showing highs 40-45 during the Monday-Wednesday period with lows 20-25 in the Willamette Valley. I'm sure if the pattern persisted it would eventually hit the 50s for highs after a few more days, but it is definitely not a warm pattern for late February/early March. Here are highs next Wednesday (Day 10), Monday and Tuesday are slightly cooler. 

 

[Bryant]

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't really warm up at the surface.

It will... after day 8.

 

Trust the EPS... it will filter out the operational run noise.

 

Try it for two weeks. Its much less stressful than following all of the model swings which makes it seem so chaotic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It will... after day 8.

 

Trust the EPS... it will filter out the operational run noise.

 

Try it for two weeks. Its much less stressful than following all of the model swings which makes it seem so chaotic.

 

Please see above maps.

[TT-SEA]

Please see above maps.

Dude... I don care what the ECMWF shows late in the run. It will eventually end up like the EPS and it will starting warming up around day 8 or 9.

[Timmy Supercell]

If southern OR is looking at yet more snow events this month before March this could be a particularly snowy February for this town.

[Bryant]

Dude... I don care what the ECMWF shows late in the run. It will eventually end up like the EPS and it will starting warming up around day 8 or 9.

To play devils advocate, about 5 days ago the EPS was showing a warm up at day 10 and it was pushed back considerably.

[Esquimalt]

Dude... I don care what the ECMWF shows late in the run. It will eventually end up like the EPS and it will starting warming up around day 8 or 9.

Maybe on the upper levels but I do think Andrew is right that 2m temps will stay relatively below normal

[TT-SEA]

Maybe on the upper levels but I do think Andrew is right that 2m temps will stay relatively below normal

Slowly warming up.

[Front Ranger]

The EPS is right 110% of the time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe on the upper levels but I do think Andrew is right that 2m temps will stay relatively below normal

 

Yes, now if that pattern persisted we would probably see daytime highs warm into the 50-55 range by day 12 or so...

[GHweatherChris]

To play devils advocate, about 5 days ago the EPS was showing a warm up at day 10 and it was pushed back considerably.

Great point!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great to see Oregon's snow pack continuing to build. Mt. Hood is still the lowest relative to average in the state with 77% of normal, but the Willamette Basin is now up to 83" and the Rogue/Umpqua basins 91%. East side the news is even better with most basins well above normal right now!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sun finally coming out here in Salem. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Partly cloudy and a bit chilly.  Most of the stations around town reporting about 41. Nice morning.

[TT-SEA]

Great point!

Never really showed a real warm up. It was hinting at it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Never really showed a real warm up. It was hinting at it.

 

Day 10 of the EURO looks dangerously close to an undercut and the top of the block is kind of floating away. What does day 15 of the EPS show?

[GHweatherChris]

Never really showed a real warm up. It was hinting at it.

Yea it did, you even said so... but whatever, go have fun!

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Yea it did, you even said so... but whatever, go have fun!

No... said it showed something other than ice box cold.