February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[MikeInEverett]

Two more weeks till it starts getting dark at 7:00!! I’ll definitely be ready for some spring weather by then.

 

Never mind it’s three weeks oops.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t know. While the first 2 weeks of March might be ridgy in the West with a Hudson Bay vortex, I’m not sure it will stay that way this time. We could easily be looking at a +NAM/+EPO/jet extension during the second half of March that hoses the west in a November-like fashion.

 

This is looking less and less like 2018 by the day. I was worried about a blast furnace spring and summer a month ago, but now I’m seeing signs it might be avoided for the most part. The z-cell structure is so much better for a moisture tap this year.

 

 

Good info... thanks.

[TT-SEA]

Feels like it is more than just your run of the mill evolution. I picture the landlord from Kingpin telling Woody Harrelson about how he’d managed to jar something loose.

 

Seems like a continuation of cool seems like a good bet well into spring. Lots of low clouds for July. Beware!

 

I am not sure about that.    

[MossMan]

It’s going to snow! Again!

 

For some of us.

[TT-SEA]

UB40 is in concert outdoors right across the street here... and Red Red Wine is blasting through our open deck doors at this moment.    

[Guest CulverJosh]

UB40 is in concert outdoors right across the street here... and Red Red Wine is blasting through our open deck doors at this moment.    

 

Go enjoy it then.

[TT-SEA]

Go enjoy it then.

Not free concert... but did enjoy it while catching up on e-mails. I have to work the next two mornings.

[Deweydog]

Breaking news!

 

We just settled on going to Hawaii in July. Ugh.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS is chilly next weekend but nothing arctic.    Then builds in a ridge shortly after.    Here is day 10...

 

 

 

Good news is that the inversion season is over.

[TT-SEA]

By day 12... even Phil's area is cold.   Enjoy!  

 

[TT-SEA]

It is very irresponsible for you to post stuff like this when it impacts the mental health of others. Also, sun angles, warm southerly flow, and smug posts, will most likely melt every single flake modeled under 2000 ft. Please think twice before you post things that get peoples hopes up.

 

Talking about literally anything other than cold and snow seems to really impact the mental health of some people on here!

 

I talk about cold and snow all the time... as well as all kinds of other weather.

[TT-SEA]

Which is why I will be banning those people for their own good. I have also been driving around Maple Valley with my propane heater and melting any excess snow found in peoples yards, especially ones with those statues to frozen toxic masculinity, snow people. I am doing this for Jim's own good.

Head to up to my area... we still have over a foot of snow on the ground judging by our cameras and my wife would be very appreciative if you could melt it all before we get home.

[TT-SEA]

By looking at the North Bend DOT cams, I can see that actually everything has melted, daffodils have started to bloom, and construction of the new dome to cover the Puget Sound for a year round sub tropical climate has started. I think people need to understand that you are a cold lovers Bond villain more than just some normal guy.

 

Great news!  

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS 10-15 day mean... most of the country is cold.

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I got good news it is snowing in parts of Las Vegas.

[TT-SEA]

I got good news it is snowing in parts of Las Vegas.

 

This has been a bad month for a warm weather escape to the desert SW.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let's be real. The chances of widespread lowland snow in the next 7-10 days are extremely low. It's beginning to be that time of year where it just probably is not going to happen and if it does it melts by noon. 

 

Up here it looks like another good snowfall Tuesday night-Wednesday and again Friday night-Sunday. What happens after that is a wildcard. 

 

Would be nice to get some clear nights and some cold lows. The lowlands definitely can cash in on those. Looks like 38/29 up here Sunday. Just got home from a great day going down to Coos Bay. 

[TT-SEA]

Let's be real. The chances of widespread lowland snow in the next 7-10 days are extremely low. It's beginning to be that time of year where it just probably is not going to happen and if it does it melts by noon.

 

Up here it looks like another good snowfall Tuesday night-Wednesday and again Friday night-Sunday. What happens after that is a wildcard.

 

Would be nice to get some clear nights and some cold lows. The lowlands definitely can cash in on those. Looks like 38/29 up here Sunday. Just got home from a great day going down to Coos Bay.

I think you are what they call a "wet blanket".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also looks like the EURO is definitely the warmest model right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think you are what they call a "wet blanket".

 

That's why you keep posting maps showing a pattern change...

[BLI snowman]

Let's be real. The chances of widespread lowland snow in the next 7-10 days are extremely low. It's beginning to be that time of year where it just probably is not going to happen and if it does it melts by noon. 

 

Up here it looks like another good snowfall Tuesday night-Wednesday and again Friday night-Sunday. What happens after that is a wildcard. 

 

Would be nice to get some clear nights and some cold lows. The lowlands definitely can cash in on those. Looks like 38/29 up here Sunday. Just got home from a great day going down to Coos Bay. 

 

Thanks for being real.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking south down the coast from Cape Arago

 

 

Shore Acres State Park

 

 

Snowy Mapleton on the Siuslaw River about 15 miles from the ocean. Elevation 50'

 

[Phil]

By day 12... even Phil's area is cold. Enjoy!

 

Crap. I don’t want another skipped spring, dude. Last year was brutal..went from cold/snow to mid-summer weather in just 10 days.

 

I don’t see that happening this time, but I’m paranoid about it after the last several years taking that route.

 

I need a transition period. We flip so quick nowadays.

[TT-SEA]

That's why you keep posting maps showing a pattern change...

 

Not sure what that means.

 

Being real is going to often be interpreted as a wet blanket.  Too bad... that is life.

'

I am interested in the pattern change because the current pattern has been locked for so long.    And I would like to see it warm up now.  But that is just my opinion.    

[TigerWoodsLibido]

By day 12... even Phil's area is cold. Enjoy!

 

Indiana a good place to be for continental weather. Looks like they will be doing well.

[FroYoBro]

29 at PDX, 27 here so far. Brrrr.

[Tyler Mode]

First below freezing temps in a week here.  30 at midnight and 26 now.

[Jesse]

Low of 26 this morning. Up to 30 now with some fog around.

 

Taking advantage of the extra day off to do some snowshoeing near Mt. Adams today. Should be a gorgeous day for it.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles keep putting off any warm up for us. 06Z charts now don’t show 850s even hitting average until March 2nd or 3rd. Still a lot of chilly members around the last few days of the month too, so that period still appears to be in play.

 

00Z Euro and EPS are now also in agreement on avoiding a cutoff solution for late in the month and keeping the chilly air over us with the northern branch remaining dominant.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a lot of fog around in the Salem area this morning per cams. 

[Jesse]

Looks like a lot of fog around in the Salem area this morning per cams.

Could be a KOLD day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be a KOLD day.

 

I'm sure most locations will find a way to disappoint and squeeze out a warmer than expected day. Last night was quite a bit warmer than the widespread mid-20s the EURO had been going for. Your location notwithstanding. 

[Jesse]

I'm sure most locations will find a way to disappoint and squeeze out a warmer than expected day. Last night was quite a bit warmer than the widespread mid-20s the EURO

had been going for. Your location notwithstanding.

Welcome back!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON stays in a cool trough through Monday PM. 

[MossMan]

27.7 currently.

[MossMan]

NWS Seattle doesn’t think anyone under 500 to 1000ft will see anything all the way through the weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS Seattle doesn’t think anyone under 500 to 1000ft will see anything all the way through the weekend.

 

If you look at the modeled pattern that would make sense. You could get some snow. Tim definitely will!

[TT-SEA]

32 at home... and 37 and raining at SEA.   Did not expect that.   I thought the lows were supposed to be much colder over the weekend.      

 

It has barely been below freezing even at home since we left 6 days ago.   I remember posting the high/low data from the ECMWF for Randy early last week and almost every night was supposed well down into the 20s at SEA with the exception of this past Friday.   Only one night dropped below 31.

 

The SEA stats for the month are crazy... a temp departure of -7.9 degrees and yet 1.90 inches above normal for precip.    That has got to be incredibly rare... very cold AND wet at the same time.  

[jcmcgaffey]

32 at home... and 37 and raining at SEA. Did not expect that. I thought the lows were supposed to be much colder over the weekend.

 

It has barely been below freezing even at home since we left 6 days ago. I remember posting the high/low data from the ECMWF for Randy early last week and almost every night was supposed well down into the 20s at SEA with the exception of this past Friday. Only one night dropped below 31.

 

The SEA stats for the month are crazy... a temp departure of -7.9 degrees and yet 1.90 inches above normal for precip. That has got to be incredibly rare... very cold AND wet at the same time.

I don’t think I have ever experienced so much 33-36 deg rain than over the past week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This trough really under performed with temps. At least it had quite a bit of low elevation snow. 6.5" up here Saturday. 2" in Mapleton, drove through Camas Valley on Oregon Hwy 42 last night and they had a good 6" or so. Not sure of the elevation, but they are about 20 miles west of Roseburg in the coast range so probably around 1000'.