March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 PM MST SAT MAR 2 2019

MTZ008>015-044>055-030710-

...RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MAR 2 IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET RECORDS BEGAN
DILLON AIRPORT 1 (TIED) 1 1960 1929
GREAT FALLS APT -8 -4 1976 1886
HAVRE -10 -5 1891 1880
LEWISTOWN APT -12 -8 1960 1896

...RECORD COOL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MAR 2 IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET RECORDS BEGAN
HAVRE -27 -23 2002 1880
TURNER -33 -23 2002 1948

[MossMan]

Happy one month anniversary of what is left of my snow!

Currently 31 after a low of 29.

[High Desert Mat?]

Yeah that's what I am leaning toward too. Sounds awesome out there! We will be hitting 84 Eastbound soon.

 

You going to make it to Redmond?

[Jesse]

You going to make it to Redmond?

Haven’t decided yet. We are going to head out toward The Dalles first and kind of play it by ear.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunset last night. Some bare patches starting to show on the roof by the bathroom vent.

 

[High Desert Mat?]

Haven’t decided yet. We are going to head out toward The Dalles first and kind of play it by ear.

Let me know if you do. Well tho get a brewskie at Wild Ride. Outdoor seating unless they haven’t shoveled the snow out, which I think they haven’t.

[ShawniganLake]

22F here this morning. Looks like we were one of the coldest spots on the BC coast. Either clouds or wind kept most locations closer to freezing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The long range GFS is starting to look Jesse-riffic. Sorry Tim.

[TT-SEA]

The long range GFS is starting to look Jesse-riffic. Sorry Tim.

 

 

No idea what that evens means. 

 

The long range 12Z GFS looks like the 00Z run with a little more progression and not as cold.    Some rain would be nice too.  

 

[snow_wizard]

The scope and intensity of the cold with this event is truly remarkable. A plethora of sub zero readings this morning over a vast area.  I saw a number of sub -20 lows for BC, sub -30 for Alberta, and numerous sub -20 in Montana.  The coldest I have been able to find for WA so far is bone chilling -11 in Mansfield.  Even here it dropped to freezing with a moderate east wind blowing.  The only time I have seen that happen in March in the 20 years I've lived here.  The cold doesn't bottom out until late tonight.  After that the winds quit Monday night thus creating the opportunity for some crazy low temps for places west of the Cascades as well.

[TT-SEA]

The scope and intensity of the cold with this event is truly remarkable. A plethora of sub zero readings this morning over a vast area.  I saw a number of sub -20 lows for BC, sub -30 for Alberta, and numerous sub -20 in Montana.  The coldest I have been able to find for WA so far is bone chilling -11 in Mansfield.  Even here it dropped to freezing with a moderate east wind blowing.  The only time I have seen that happen in March in the 20 years I've lived here.  The cold doesn't bottom out until late tonight.  After that the winds quit Monday night thus creating the opportunity for some crazy low temps for places west of the Cascades as well.

 

FWIW... the 00Z ECMWF showed the east wind going through Tuesday morning.

[snow_wizard]

The long range GFS is starting to look Jesse-riffic. Sorry Tim.

 

Maybe this will end being like 1955.  It's like Mother Nature is saying what El Nino.  Pretty exciting to be in essentially uncharted waters!

[Jesse]

The long range GFS is starting to look Jesse-riffic. Sorry Tim.

Jesse-rific = Andrew-tastic!

[TT-SEA]

Jesse-rific = Andrew-tastic!

Its just another cryptic post from Andrew. There is no real difference from previous runs.

[Jesse]

Its just another cryptic post from Andrew. There is no real difference from previous runs.

That’s good since I loved the long range 06z!

[TT-SEA]

That’s good since I loved the long range 06z!

Referring to the 00Z runs. I don't do comparisons to the 06Z and 18Z runs.

 

Regardless... I would still like to see more robust fronts and I am not sure when that will actually happen.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible.  The GFS now has 850s around -7 over Western WA for pretty much all of next weekend now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS is more progressive, but still cool troughs with some mountain snow every couple of days. Warmer than what we are getting now of course.

[Blizzard777]

Happy one month anniversary of what is left of my snow!

Currently 31 after a low of 29.

when I drove down here to PDX Friday their was snow still covering the ground just south of Olympia in the tree covered areas.

 

31* low overnight and currently 35* back in Federal Way with NE wind gusting to 15 (ten minute adverage 2 mph)

Brother reported some flurries in La Pine this morning at 15*

[TT-SEA]

Long range GFS is more progressive, but still cool troughs with some mountain snow every couple of days. Warmer than what we are getting now of course.

How is that different? And how is that different than what I want to see? I suspect Jesse and I actually want the same thing later this month.

[snow_wizard]

That’s good since I loved the long range 06z!

 

This is finally what we have been dreaming of!  As Phil has alluded to this has been enough of a shakeup it may represent a major regime shift.  Great things MAY be much more common for us now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Be interesting to see what kind of high PDX can pull off. Currently 34 with East winds gusting to 35. 

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning... bright sunshine and fairly light wind and 35 here.  

[TT-SEA]

ENSO warming fast... wonder if this will last?    I would prefer it stay closer to neutral through the summer.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Maybe this will end being like 1955.  It's like Mother Nature is saying what El Nino.  Pretty exciting to be in essentially uncharted waters!

Please no. I don’t need a spring that takes forever to warm up followed by a non-summer.

[snow_wizard]

Everything looks fabulous for tomorrow night.  Cold air in place, very dry air in place, offshore gradients drop to very weak, and clear skies expected.  We could easily see some places have their lowest March readings at least since 1989.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

34 with a DP of 27. Very nice night under the stars.

[snow_wizard]

Please no. I don’t need a spring that takes forever to warm up followed by a non-summer.

 

August of 1955 was a rare treat.  Very dry with well below normal temps.  That year was quite an anomaly to say the least.  I doubt it will end up being that constantly cold, but we are due for a bunch of cool summers.

[Jesse]

Please no. I don’t need a spring that takes forever to warm up followed by a non-summer.

Weren’t you complaining very vocally about the hot and dry spring and summer last year too?

[Omegaraptor]

Weren’t you complaining very vocally about the hot and dry spring and summer last year too?

I was complaining mostly about the dryness. If we can have an average to slightly above average spring and summer with more precipitation than normal, that would be ideal.

[snow_wizard]

The subject of summer does bring up an interesting point.  I would think a major regime shift could end up including much less dominance of the 4 Corners high during the summers.  That feature has been overwhelming for quite some time now during the summer.  It has been responsible for the dramatically hotter summers over the entire Western US as compared to pre 1975 norms.  On the other hand we could just see the big changes in the other seasons and maintain the hot summers.  No way to know right now.

[TT-SEA]

I was complaining mostly about the dryness. If we can have an average to slightly above average spring and summer with more precipitation than normal, that would be ideal.

 

I am sure even Jim would be crawling out of his skin if it rained most of May, June, and July just to get to a few weeks of decent weather in August.

 

A summer like 1951 was much nicer. No extreme heat and lots of chilly lows but dry for almost all of JJA.

[snow_wizard]

I was complaining mostly about the dryness. If we can have an average to slightly above average spring and summer with more precipitation than normal, that would be ideal.

 

I'm the opposite.  I like dry and cool.  Our summer precip is so unimportant in our annual totals anyway.

[ShawniganLake]

The subject of summer does bring up an interesting point. I would think a major regime shift could end up including much less dominance of the 4 Corners high during the summers. That feature has been overwhelming for quite some time now during the summer. It has been responsible for the dramatically hotter summers over the entire Western US as compared to pre 1975 norms. On the other hand we could just see the big changes in the other seasons and maintain the hot summers. No way to know right now.

No way to know if we are going to see big changes in any of the seasons, really.

[Jesse]

I'm the opposite. I like dry and cool. Our summer precip is so unimportant in our annual totals anyway.

Yeah but it seems to be disproportionately important to our native vegetation. A shift in the length of our dry season can have pretty nasty affects. I hate looking at dead trees everywhere, sadly that’s become the norm with all the hot and dry summers lately. Although granted heat stress could be playing just as much of a role as drought stress.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still pretty solid snow cover except where i walked.

[Omegaraptor]

Personally as spring is my favorite season here I just don’t want one like 2010 or 2011 again.

[Jesse]

Personally as spring is my favorite season here I just don’t want one like 2010 or 2011 again.

I agree with you that our average springs are quite nice. But there is no denying we have been building up some cold spring karma the last several years. Time will tell if that actually means anything.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah but it seems to be disproportionately important to our native vegetation. A shift in the length of our dry season can have pretty nasty affects. I hate looking at dead trees everywhere, sadly that’s become the norm with all the hot and dry summers lately. Although granted heat stress could be playing just as much of a role as drought stress.

 

I think it is heat stress. We've had some wet years and very wet winters as Tim would like to point out. But yet we still had die-off's in 2017 for instance. The very hot temps also combined with the lack of marine layer. The trees west of the Cascades are probably used to that cool wet air and the fog drip to help sustain them in summer when there is no rain. 

[Jesse]

I think it is heat stress. We've had some wet years and very wet winters as Tim would like to point out. But yet we still had die-off's in 2017 for instance. The very hot temps also combined with the lack of marine layer. The trees west of the Cascades are probably used to that cool wet air and the fog drip to help sustain them in summer when there is no rain.

 

Good points.