March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

This is almost a carbon copy of last week. I doubt west of the cascades will see much of anything with this but i guess it could move north and west a bit.

 

 

Really is similar... we have a good guide.   Air mass will probably be even drier this time around.  

[snow_wizard]

As Tim just mentioned he's not had rain in about a month and i just realized I've had no rain since the first or second of Feb. That is pretty amazing.

 

I was wondering if that might be the case for some people.  This whole event has had an almost surreal quality to it.  Things are happening that you just don't see very often.

[El_Nina]

Down to 26 here already.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'd like to know why the models struggle with this trajectory of low pressure coming in and making a sharp curve north. Must be because of the trough and how far it digs?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Perturbed Member]

Good luck PDX!!!

 

Pretty unlikely we get a real snowstorm out of this but if the ICON/EURO solutions do verify I could see 2-4 inches as a possibility. I would be more than happy with that. Hopefully PDX can get one decent widespread event before we're done for the season. We're about to get arguably our most impressive airmass of the season here (at least in the lower levels). Might as well get our best snow event too?

 

Loving the snowcover in most of OR/WA

 

[snow_wizard]

My biggest hope is that everything we have been seeing is because of the much lower solar activity that has taken place over the past couple of cycles.  If so we could have some much better winters coming up that we have been accustomed to.  We are still waiting for a big January.  That is going to be something to pop open a bottle champagne for when it happens!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

No Baffin Island death vortex made a huge difference for sure. There are no cases in history (that I can find) with a massive and vertically stacked vortex there which simultaneously delivered in the PNW.

 

It’s a death blow.

I found this interesting too, and in the future when other SSW events happen, we will have clues where the cold weather will go.

 

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice Mar 1

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I was re-giving my talk at #AMS2019 to some colleagues over in Europe this morning and noticed the Siberian SSWE warming composite +14 days after the event show the -PNA whereas during North Atlantic SSWE initiations, you don't get the trough over western North America...

[Perturbed Member]

This is almost a carbon copy of last week. I doubt west of the cascades will see much of anything with this but i guess it could move north and west a bit.

 

Yeah odds are against us but some areas in the low lands further south did overperform with that event. 

 

We also have the ECMWF, ICON and UKMET much stronger and further NW with this low and so far the other models seem to be trending there too. 

[snow_wizard]

I'd like to know why the models struggle with this trajectory of low pressure coming in and making a sharp curve north. Must be because of the trough and how far it digs?

 

I think it's simply because the pattern is so abnormal.  Everything is way out of whack right now.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 26 here already.

 

I expect some downright impressive numbers over the next two nights.  Most areas that are windy tonight should be calm tomorrow night.  Should be some really eye popping lows in some places.

[TT-SEA]

I think it's simply because the pattern is so abnormal. Everything is way out of whack right now.

No... the struggles on Wednesday are just related to how dry the air mass will be on Wednesday. The 500mb pattern is basically the same on all the models.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  SEA is 36 with a dp of 8 at 8pm.  I wonder how long it's been since that has happened in March. 

 

Edit:  Stampede Pass is at an insane 9 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already very cold out in the Columbia Basin in places where skies have cleared. -1 at Boardman, 1 in Pullman, 12 in Tri-Cities.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I found this interesting too, and in the future when other SSW events happen, we will have clues where the cold weather will go.

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice Mar 1

 

 

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I was re-giving my talk at #AMS2019 to some colleagues over in Europe this morning and noticed the Siberian SSWE warming composite +14 days after the event show the -PNA whereas during North Atlantic SSWE initiations, you don't get the trough over western North America...

Hmmm, that's very interesting. Good piece of info for future SSW events.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shows another sunny and pleasant weekend... without the east wind this time around.

 

Maybe into the low 50s again by Sunday.     

[El_Nina]

I expect some downright impressive numbers over the next two nights.  Most areas that are windy tonight should be calm tomorrow night.  Should be some really eye popping lows in some places.

Definitely some teens in store for calm spots

[Kayla]

Few more crazy stats from today before I head to bed and possibly some more all-time records tomorrow.

 

Great Falls pulled off a -51F departure today. 

 

Bozeman Airport pulled off a -50F departure on the day.

 

Bozeman MSU -22F morning low was the coldest for this late in the season since 1955. (Likely to be topped tomorrow morning)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went out to the west end of the Gorge this evening. Absolutely stunning.

 

[joelgombiner]

Down to -1 at Mansfield on the Waterville plateau. Colder than forecast low. Columbia basin is really getting cold.

[Timmy]

Already down to 23 here, we could make a run at our coldest night here which I think was like 19 back in December

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Few more crazy stats from today before I head to bed and possibly some more all-time records tomorrow.

 

Great Falls pulled off a -51F departure today. 

 

Bozeman Airport pulled of a -47F departure on the day.

 

Bozeman MSU -22F morning low was the coldest for this late in the season since 1955.

 

Already down to -26 at Gallatin Field. 

[TT-SEA]

Few more crazy stats from today before I head to bed and possibly some more all-time records tomorrow.

 

Great Falls pulled off a -51F departure today.

 

Bozeman Airport pulled off a -47F departure on the day.

 

Bozeman MSU -22F morning low was the coldest for this late in the season since 1955. (Likely to be topped tomorrow morning)

SEA put up a -4 departure today and did not go below freezing.

 

Take that Montana!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wanderer's Peak east of Molalla and Horse Creek about 7-10 miles east of me are down to 7 and 17 respectively. When you see those snotel stations getting cold like that you know there is some depth to the airmass.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Already down to -26 at Gallatin Field.

 

-31 now dewpoint -76 lol.

[Kayla]

Already down to -26 at Gallatin Field. 

 

Yeah, wow they just plummeted. -31F now...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, wow they just plummeted. -31F now...

 

Incredible. Temp is absolutely nosediving.

[Jesse]

28 DP 8 here this evening, with a light east wind. It was 12 degrees coming over Government Camp around 6pm. About as cold an airmass as you will see around here in March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Roseburg recorded their 2nd straight record min max. Amazing what residual snowcover can do. A bit further south it was near 60 in Medford today. Roseburg was just 39, breaking the record of 40 from 1951.

 

It appears this was only the 3rd sub-40 high at Roseburg since 1899.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, wow they just plummeted. -31F now...

Back up to -24 now.

 

I was surprised to see the average high in Bozeman is already 45. That is only 7 degrees cooler than Seattle. Complete insanity there right now.

[El_Nina]

00Z GFS shows another sunny and pleasant weekend... without the east wind this time around.

 

Maybe into the low 50s again by Sunday.

 

This weekend has been sunny, but not pleasant. I'm almost tired of being cold everytime I step outside.

[Kayla]

Incredible. Temp is absolutely nosediving.

 

Making a run for the all-time coldest March reading already.

[MossMan]

I just got the same sensor array (I got the model with the LCD display) and it looks like we have peaked at 494 so far today....sun angles/being farther north ;-)

 

I am really liking it. I realized its not a Davis, but it is a million times better than the Acurite piece of crap I used to have.

So far it has been great, I love it!

[Omegaraptor]

 

Whoa. I was not expecting this to show up on the model. 70s for the valley? Tim is going to have a heart attack.

 

Also LOL at the cold pool in Siskiyou County.

[Deweydog]

Back up to -24 now.

 

I was surprised to see the average high in Bozeman is already 45. That is only 7 degrees cooler than Seattle. Complete insanity there right now.

Our temperature hasn’t dropped for over 20 minutes now.

 

It will also rise appreciably tomorrow when the sun comes up.

[TT-SEA]

This weekend has been sunny, but not pleasant. I'm almost tired of being cold everytime I step outside.

Yesterday was spectacular... today was a little cooler but very nice in the sun here. I was outside in shorts and a sweatshirt and was perfectly comfortable. But a strong wind would have made it feel much worse.

 

You know I am tired of cold when I am craving warm rain!

[Kayla]

Back up to -24 now.

 

I was surprised to see the average high in Bozeman is already 45. That is only 7 degrees cooler than Seattle. Complete insanity there right now.

 

Yeah it's normally warming up quickly this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Making a run for the all-time coldest March reading already.

 

Pullman, WA came within 1 degree of their all-time March low this morning at -3. They are already down to 0, I think they have a shot tonight.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This weekend has been sunny, but not pleasant. I'm almost tired of being cold everytime I step outside.

I was outside almost the whole day today and it was okay except for my lips getting chapped.

[El_Nina]

Yesterday was spectacular... today was a little cooler but very nice in the sun here. I was outside in shorts and a sweatshirt and was perfectly comfortable. But a strong wind would have made it feel much worse.

You know I am tired of cold when I am craving warm rain!

I was getting chilled wearing jeans and a heavy jacket while mowing in full sunshine today. All due to the wind, of course, otherwise it would have been perfect. And wow that's really saying something when you're cheering for rain. Crazy how we've gotten here.