March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

And receive more rainfall on average!

 

But the pattern last April favored WA for heavy rain.   

 

It can vary greatly for individual months and seasons.   

 

The wet spring here and the dry spring down there last year both actually happened.   

[Omegaraptor]

But the pattern last April favored WA for heavy rain.

 

It can vary greatly for individual months and seasons.

 

The wet spring here and the dry spring down there last year both actually happened.

 

On 4/14 Seattle got 1.7” of rain and Portland missed the atmospheric river getting only 0.17”. Last April was wetter than normal for Portland, but not by much. Without the AR, Seattle didn’t really beat out Portland by much rainfall-wise.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But the pattern last April favored WA for heavy rain.   

 

It can vary greatly for individual months and seasons.   

 

The wet spring here and the dry spring down there last year both actually happened.   

 

Yeah it is REALLY wet here though in general. I just don't make a huge deal about it. Even the extremely dry 2013 had over 55" of rain here. 2012 had about 105" and 2017 had 96 I believe. 

 

Looks like we've had about 42" since October 1st which is around 15" below normal at least... IF we do have a dry spring then we could challenge 2013. 

[TT-SEA]

I think this is going to be a blocky year and that would mean it is more likely to end up drier than normal here.

 

It has not been drier than normal in the central and northern Cascades and adjacent foothills since 2013.   This year has a decent chance to break that streak.

 

That is all.     Sorry if that is offensive.   

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah it is REALLY wet here though in general. I just don't make a huge deal about it. Even the extremely dry 2013 had over 55" of rain here. 2012 had about 105" and 2017 had 96 I believe.

 

Wow those impressive rain totals really do make my part of the lowlands look lame.

 

The coast range is still the heavyweight champ when it comes to Oregon rain though. Some parts of the Oregon Coast Range apparently get up to 180” a year on average, but the wettest official gauge is Laurel Mountain at 121”/yr. Valsetz apparently got 126”/yr, back when it existed.

[Jesse]

Nobody is whining. You whine way more.

Really hope we can finally dry out this spring. Last year’s record dry warm season just went by too fast.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah it is REALLY wet here though in general. I just don't make a huge deal about it. Even the extremely dry 2013 had over 55" of rain here. 2012 had about 105" and 2017 had 96 I believe.

I don't make a big deal of it either... unless its extreme for here. Like last April... and then I was actually cheering for the record.

 

This past October - December was perfectly normal here... literally perfectly normal in terms of rain. 39.80 inches of rain at the Cedar Lake station in those 3 months. Good luck finding one post from me complaining about the rain in that period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow those impressive rain totals really do make my part of the lowlands look lame.

 

The coast range is still the heavyweight champ when it comes to Oregon rain though. Some parts of the Oregon Coast Range apparently get up to 180” a year on average, but the wettest official gauge is Laurel Mountain at 121”/yr. Valsetz apparently got 126”/yr, back when it existed.

 

March can be a big month up here. I had 20.55" of precip in March 2012 and over 17" in March 2017. 

 

According to the PRISM data the wettest month 1892-present up here was November 2006 and the wettest year 1996. 

 

2012 was pretty incredible. I had over 19" of precip in January, the before mentioned 20" in March, and 10"+ in October, Nov, and December. 

[TT-SEA]

Really hope we can finally dry out this spring. Last year’s record dry warm season just went by too fast.

 

This is whining Jesse.    Perfect example of how you do it.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyways...Down to 37 under mostly clear skies. 

[GHweatherChris]

Backyard weather is more important when discussing regional weather.... just saying!

[ShawniganLake]

39 IMBY

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is more troughy in the 5-10 day period than previous runs.

[jcmcgaffey]

I’m responding to the fire topic late and not sure if someone has mentioned this but a couple points when talking fires is that wildland fires are different than wildfires and there are more human caused forest fires than nature but more acreage is actually burned by natural fires than human caused mostly because they occur from lightning high up in the country which make it harder to reach.

[Deweydog]

Hopefully this year’s fire season doesn’t run on as long as that sentence.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Hopefully this year’s fire season doesn’t run on as long as that sentence.

That is called a sentagraph.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hopefully this year’s fire season doesn’t run on as long as that sentence.

haha well I mean to be fair this is a weather forum not a spelling or grammar contest.

[MossMan]

The sun is attempting to break out! I’m on baby duty all day so not much will get accomplished outside but perhaps some lounging on the deck will be in order!

Currently 47 after a low of 41.

[Omegaraptor]

Models and forecast are much wetter than yesterday for my area!

[ShawniganLake]

GFS has fully caved to the Euro in the cold weather outlook.

 

Sunny and 41 this morning after a low of 35

[Jesse]

GFS has fully caved to the Euro in the cold weather outlook.

 

Sunny and 41 this morning after a low of 35

 

That means a wetter pattern too.

[Blizzard777]

Saw this and just gave me a good laugh! Looks like 11.5 inches of sunshine fell last Thursday in Seabeck Wa.

Apparently it was warm enough to stick to everything except shady spots! I understand why some folks couldn’t make it into work

[crf450ish]

Wildfire season is on the horizon. Hate to be devil's advocate, but it's inevitable.

[ShawniganLake]

Southern Vancouver Island snowpack starting to look pretty shitty

 

 

[jcmcgaffey]

Southern Vancouver Island snowpack starting to look pretty shitty

 

 

1EA58A58-D6B9-426A-9564-0057877AB11D.png

ya really isn’t looking good when looking at current conditions and long range NOAA forecasting models. One positive is that I feel every time we think something is inevitable weather wise it ends up flipping on us. One scenario is we could have a warm dry spring and then turn to a wetter pattern over the summer which would really keep fires down.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For once Oregon is in a much better situation with snow pack than its friends to the north.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles seemed to trend a little milder and wetter.

[Jesse]

Wildfire season is on the horizon. Hate to be devil's advocate, but it's inevitable.

Can’t be devils advocate when everyone else has basically been saying the same thing.

[Jesse]

Now the Euro is bringing back the early April cold idea.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few morning thoughts. This system while doing nearly nothing for rain/snow in NW Oregon has delivered widespread soaking rain to much of Eastern Oregon and snow in the mountains above 4-5000'. Snow pack numbers over yesterday have improved even more with some Eastern Oregon basins approaching 160% of normal snow pack. 

 

Some chilly overnight lows west side. Eugene hit 33. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF not updating on the tropical site... but the surface maps are updating on WB.

 

It looks much drier than the 00Z run... more northerly flow late in the week and through next weekend.    Actually looks warmer than the 00Z run though in the 7-10 day period with more sun and less precip.

[Jesse]

I have summoned Tim!

[Jesse]

Hour 240 of the 12z Euro. Looks balmy:

 

[TT-SEA]

Hour 240 of the 12z Euro. Looks balmy:

 

607EADFE-6209-4094-9C98-5C48966649F6.png

 

I did not see your first post... I was typing when you posted it.   Don't flatter yourself.

 

The 12Z run is warmer than the 00Z run on each day in the 7-10 day period.   Did I say it was balmy?   

 

Its much drier... and actually a little warmer than the 00Z run.     That is what it shows.    Looks like highs mostly in the low to mid 60s... but a little cooler on day 10.  

 

The 00Z run showed 1.5 inches of rain for SEA over the next 10 days.    The 12Z shows about a quarter of a inch over the next 10 days.   

[Jesse]

Slap fight!

[Jesse]

There have been a few runs the last few days that I have liked and considered posting about but just decided to keep my mouth shut to avoid this sort of thing. Seems like a better and better option.

[TT-SEA]

There have been a few runs the last few days that I have liked and considered posting about but just decided to keep my mouth shut to avoid this sort of thing. Seems like a better and better option.

You make it confrontational. I just made a quick post about the change in the 12Z run as I was looking at the WB maps. I did not even know you were posting. My summary is accurate.

 

No idea why you take offense other maybe being pissed about the significant reduction in rain totals.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When there is no real interesting weather on the horizon for the next six months I prefer to take it one day at a time and transition to other activities such as yard work.

[Jesse]

You make it confrontational. I just made a quick post about the change in the 12Z run as I was looking at the WB maps. I did not even know you were posting. My summary is accurate.

 

No idea why you take offense other maybe being pissed about the significant reduction in rain totals.

Tim, I’ve known you for over ten years, and I’m not dumb. What you do is obvious. You have definitely gotten more sneaky and passive aggressive about it in recent years, but really it’s the same old schtick. Since this is pretty much your forum all anyone can really do is try to work around it, which I definitely need to get better at, since it’s obvious you won’t be changing anytime soon.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, I’ve known you for over ten years, and I’m not dumb. What you do is obvious. You have definitely gotten more sneaky and passive aggressive about it in recent years, but really it’s the same old schtick. Since this is pretty much your forum all anyone can really do is try to work around it, which I definitely need to get better at, since it’s obvious you won’t be changing anytime soon.

You are seriously paranoid. I posted last night about the ECMWF being wetter in the 5-10 day period as well. No problems from you on that post. Make the same type of summary post this morning and now I am out to get you by reporting on what the new runs shows.

 

Can't help your paranoia.