April 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

other than a few hours - DSM has had a wind gust reported on Metars since 8pm Tuesday. Can't remember the last time sustained  strong winds lasted this long...

[Tom]

Big reversal across the Arctic regions per the overnight 00z EPS which is now suggesting to flood the CONUS with warmth into Week 2.  Let's see if it holds onto the idea over the next day or so.  The GEFS are starting to lean that way as well but some clues I look for tell me not to bite so fast just yet.  Why?  This 10mb Strat map suggests to look for a trough in the extended...however, it looks like by Easter weekend a nice ridge pops in the heartland and expands east into the Lakes region for a short period.  The question is, does it last or are the models just doing a "head fake" with the idea of extended warmth.  Let's see how things shake out over the next few days.

 

 

 

The end is near for the Polar Vortex and the final warming across the Strat will allow for the PV tol go back into hibernation mode towards the end of the month.  As the saying goes, "See you Next Year"...BTW, my sneak preview into next cold season are becoming more clear to me that it'll be another year where we brew up a North American Vortex.  I fully anticipate a displaced PV next cold season and this time it will be both the U.S. and Europe in the deep freezer.  Mind you, this past cold season in Europe was very warm overall and that was my call last Spring/Summer and my current thinking is for both continents to mirror cold next Winter. Just my 2 cents and my early call going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meantime, I've been studying current trends in the PAC both on the surface and below in the deep PAC ocean.  There has been research that the deep oceans are rapidly cooling and may provide us with clues going forward in the years ahead.  Interestingly, I wanted to wait and see where the CFSv2 would trend as it typically is very warm overall during the Spring "shoulder" months and my hunch was right.  As you will see below, the models was quite bullish on a mod/strong Nino to last all the way through the Summer into next Fall but has since steadily flipped big time in recent weeks.

 

A month ago it had this...

 

 

2 weeks ago...

 

 

Lastly, its recent run is showing a definitive reversal....this is quite important if you are to believe it is right.  Not only that, you will also notice the recent runs (blue lines) are even indicating possible ENSO neutral conditions by next Fall.

 

 

 

 

Come to think of it, I posted the JAMSTEC's ENSO predictions last month and it was the only model showing ENSO neutral conditions by the end of this year.  Something happened to it's site and it is no longer working.  I'm not quite sure whats going on with the Japanese agency but hopefully it'll come back online.  It had this idea for 3 runs in a row so we may have to "tip the hat" to the JAMSTEC by sniffing out this idea.

 

Moreover, I mentioned how some scientists and researches have been studying in depth how the deep oceans (Atlantic & Pacific) are cooling faster than previously thought and by looking at the CPC's Equatorial PAC Depth anomalies below, it's clearly becoming evident that there is a large pool of "cool" waters brewing.  Is this the beginning of the demise of the El Nino later this year???  In my opinion, we have a lot of interesting and fascinating developments occurring across our Globe and the entire scope of our planetary system..  How all of this ties together throughout this year and the years to come will be quiet meaningful.  Have a great weekend!  

 

 

 

[Tom]

I did a bit more digging and found that the JAMSTEC model is still operating.  They changed the URL address which I had saved in my favorites folder.  With that being said, the model has not bent over on the idea of ENSO neutral conditions by late Summer.  In fact, for the 4th run in a row, it has ENSO neutral conditions by July/August.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1apr2019.gif

 

 

 

Take it with a grain of salt, but just for eye candy (which fits my thinking)...is a big winter brewing next year???  La Nina the following Winter???  Could the globe be cooling by then???  Alright, alright, alright...that's enough LR talk for now.  

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2020.1apr2019.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2020.1apr2019.gif

[jaster220]

Big reversal across the Arctic regions per the overnight 00z EPS which is now suggesting to flood the CONUS with warmth into Week 2.  Let's see if it holds onto the idea over the next day or so.  The GEFS are starting to lean that way as well but some clues I look for tell me not to bite so fast just yet.  Why?  This 10mb Strat map suggests to look for a trough in the extended...however, it looks like by Easter weekend a nice ridge pops in the heartland and expands east into the Lakes region for a short period.  The question is, does it last or are the models just doing a "head fake" with the idea of extended warmth.  Let's see how things shake out over the next few days.

 

 

 

The end is near for the Polar Vortex and the final warming across the Strat will allow for the PV tol go back into hibernation mode towards the end of the month.  As the saying goes, "See you Next Year"...BTW, my sneak preview into next cold season are becoming more clear to me that it'll be another year where we brew up a North American Vortex.  I fully anticipate a displaced PV next cold season and this time it will be both the U.S. and Europe in the deep freezer.  Mind you, this past cold season in Europe was very warm overall and that was my call last Spring/Summer and my current thinking is for both continents to mirror cold next Winter. Just my 2 cents and my early call going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meantime, I've been studying current trends in the PAC both on the surface and below in the deep PAC ocean.  There has been research that the deep oceans are rapidly cooling and may provide us with clues going forward in the years ahead.  Interestingly, I wanted to wait and see where the CFSv2 would trend as it typically is very warm overall during the Spring "shoulder" months and my hunch was right.  As you will see below, the models was quite bullish on a mod/strong Nino to last all the way through the Summer into next Fall but has since steadily flipped big time in recent weeks.

 

A month ago it had this...

 

 

2 weeks ago...

 

 

Lastly, its recent run is showing a definitive reversal....this is quite important if you are to believe it is right.  Not only that, you will also notice the recent runs (blue lines) are even indicating possible ENSO neutral conditions by next Fall.

 

 

 

 

Come to think of it, I posted the JAMSTEC's ENSO predictions last month and it was the only model showing ENSO neutral conditions by the end of this year.  Something happened to it's site and it is no longer working.  I'm not quite sure whats going on with the Japanese agency but hopefully it'll come back online.  It had this idea for 3 runs in a row so we may have to "tip the hat" to the JAMSTEC by sniffing out this idea.

 

Moreover, I mentioned how some scientists and researches have been studying in depth how the deep oceans (Atlantic & Pacific) are cooling faster than previously thought and by looking at the CPC's Equatorial PAC Depth anomalies below, it's clearly becoming evident that there is a large pool of "cool" waters brewing.  Is this the beginning of the demise of the El Nino later this year???  In my opinion, we have a lot of interesting and fascinating developments occurring across our Globe and the entire scope of our planetary system..  How all of this ties together throughout this year and the years to come will be quiet meaningful.  Have a great weekend!  

 

 

 

 

Very nice LR analysis Tom. Always appreciate your insights!

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Andie]

In a word, Rain. And lots of it. Wave after wave of heavy downpours with high winds. 25-30mph.

This system is picking up steam as the day warms and it moves toward Louisiana.

 

At this writing I've received 1.2" of rain, and it's just winding up for the largest wave.

Temp 56*.

 

[gosaints]

Global cooling I tell ya

[Tom]

[Andie]

A station near me is reporting 2.18" so far.

Golf course is like a lake. The eye of this low is passing over us, but we might get more with afternoon warming. It's come down in buckets. Some hail reported east of me as it winds up.

Odd looking hail.

 

[Tom]

@ OkWx, how are you doing down there?  I can't help but think what this storm would be like for you in the heart of Winter.  Your basically in the direct comma head of this system.  Pretty remarkable in itself for a mid-April storm. 

 

[Andie]

Well, DFW is about to kiss the back side of this Low. It's been swinging around all afternoon and finally getting here.

I doubt it will have the water or punch of this morning but it's been quite a day.

 

Hope Okwx is fine. Louisiana is getting plenty of rain. It is early for this. It's also odd to see such a well formed low appear in April and move at a snails pace. But then again, it hasn't been a typical transitional season, has it?

[Niko]

Beautiful , sunny day today w temps in the 60s.

[Andie]

Here it comes

 

[Tom]

Well, DFW is about to kiss the back side of this Low. It's been swinging around all afternoon and finally getting here.

I doubt it will have the water or punch of this morning but it's been quite a day.

 

Hope Okwx is fine. Louisiana is getting plenty of rain. It is early for this. It's also odd to see such a well formed low appear in April and move at a snails pace. But then again, it hasn't been a typical transitional season, has it?

How did you fair down there? This system is a beauty from a meteorological perspective. Tons of energy and quite the classic comma look.

[Andie]

2.56". Localized flooding. Our golf course looked like a swamp.

 

It was an awesome thing to watch. Just a classic Low that we get on occasion that slowly swirls its way across the state.

I've experienced these things all my life and they have so much energy in them you can feel it on your skin. You become restless, and pace around the the house. It wasn't until the leading coil passed that I felt I could settle down. The back edge was calmer as if it had expended its energy overall.

 

We had some fatalities in the state from a tree hitting a house but I was amazed we did not have tornados spawning from it. Much as it does with tropical or hurricanes. We needed the rain and this was an awesome day!

 

So, Question: will this trend vanish, or will our hurricane season be busy in the Gulf?

[OKwx2k4]

@ OkWx, how are you doing down there? I can't help but think what this storm would be like for you in the heart of Winter. Your basically in the direct comma head of this system. Pretty remarkable in itself for a mid-April storm.

 

I hate my life. Lol. The weather trolls me every winter.

[Stormy]

The SPC thinks Ia. finally has a legit chance of severe weather on day 4.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

[westMJim]

Had a light shower the temperature here at my house is now at 37 so kind of warm for any snow to stick (if any falls) the wind has picked up and is now out of the east at around 20 MPH so the wind chill is in the mid 20's The forecast is still for 2 to 4" for today and early tonight we shall see.

[Hawkeye]

The Masters started several hours early today to beat the severe weather.  However, the CAMs are showing the rain and storms to the west crapping out, with Augusta not getting much.  Most of the system's energy went northeast toward the lakes.

[Minny_Weather]

I kinda question the SPC's judgment for Wednesday. Maybe a BIT too far into Iowa. Central/Eastern Iowa look to have capping that could be a fly in the ointment for severe wx there. Dry air could also limit storm development in Western Iowa. I feel more like it should just be a 15% zone West of I-35 and East of the Missouri River if anything.

[Hawkeye]

It's looking like yet another big low will track through Iowa, leaving us in the blah zone.  Often, much of the best action will be well south and north.

[Niko]

Rain currently after some morning snow and temps are hovering at 34F. UGH!

[Andie]

51*. Crystal clear blue skies! Just a beautiful Palm Sunday.

Dewpoint 40

Humidity 65...it's cool, though we can handle it.

 

Wildflowers? Well, you tell me. Bluebonnets have gone amuck this year.

 

[Niko]

Next week is looking like a wet one w numerous rainy days.

[Hawkeye]

The Masters started several hours early today to beat the severe weather.  However, the CAMs are showing the rain and storms to the west crapping out, with Augusta not getting much.  Most of the system's energy went northeast toward the lakes.

 

Kudos to The Masters officials for moving up the Sunday round.  While the storms did weaken some, they have reached Augusta.  They would be in a lengthy delay right now during the middle of the back nine if they had not moved it up to this morning.

[Hawkeye]

Wow, the Des Moines NWS just put out a very long, incredibly detailed afternoon discussion about the mid to late week system.  It may be the longest one they've ever done.

[East Dubzz]

Kudos to The Masters officials for moving up the Sunday round. While the storms did weaken some, they have reached Augusta. They would be in a lengthy delay right now during the middle of the back nine if they had not moved it up to this morning.

Yeah, no doubt. Maybe they got a little lucky, but they played it safe and it worked out. Thank goodness. Would have hated to see a delay in the middle of the final round.

[Stormy]

I kinda question the SPC's judgment for Wednesday. Maybe a BIT too far into Iowa. Central/Eastern Iowa look to have capping that could be a fly in the ointment for severe wx there. Dry air could also limit storm development in Western Iowa. I feel more like it should just be a 15% zone West of I-35 and East of the Missouri River if anything.

They will make changes (possibly big) to that map, or they always do this far in advance.

[Stormy]

It's looking like yet another big low will track through Iowa, leaving us in the blah zone.  Often, much of the best action will be well south and north.

Yeah I've noticed that dry slot potential for several days.

[Andie]

High of 70* today. Gorgeous

 

The golfers were practically in a traffic jam out on the 7th and 8th fairway.

Everyone in the spirit of the Masters, I guess.

[Niko]

Looks like the rain has finally ended. Some light snow possible tanite w temps near freezing.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and windy w temps at 34F. Some light snow developing later tanite. No accumulations, thank goodness. Wcf attm is @25F.

[OKwx2k4]

51*. Crystal clear blue skies! Just a beautiful Palm Sunday.

Dewpoint 40

Humidity 65...it's cool, though we can handle it.

 

Wildflowers? Well, you tell me. Bluebonnets have gone amuck this year.

 

IMG_1486.JPG

That is an amazing picture! Beautiful!

[westMJim]

Yesterdays snow fall here at Grand Rapids set a new record for April 14th with 4.1" and at Muskegon it was a record 6.7" Here at my house 14 miles NW of GRR I recorded 5.3" and there is now 4.5" on the ground here. With the snow fall the season total now at Grand Rapids is now at 81.2" not bad for the big snow free spell in December into mid January.

[Tom]

Yesterdays snow fall here at Grand Rapids set a new record for April 14th with 4.1" and at Muskegon it was a record 6.7" Here at my house 14 miles NW of GRR I recorded 5.3" and there is now 4.5" on the ground here. With the snow fall the season total now at Grand Rapids is now at 81.2" not bad for the big snow free spell in December into mid January.

Same here...ORD set a new snowfall record (5.3") for April 14th and just missed the tying the record for the latest seasonal snowfall ever record by 0.1" (5.4").

 

EDIT: My seasonal total is at 48.1"

 

 

 

NWS Chicago

‏Verified account @NWSChicago 9h9 hours ago

More

As of 9 pm, today's official snow total for Chicago (O'hare) was up to 5.3" making it the 2nd snowiest calendar day on record for so late in the season. This missed the record snowiest day for so late in the season by only 1 tenth of an inch! The record is 5.4" back on 4/16/1961

[Tom]

On this day, 2 distinct snow bands from 2 separate systems have made its mark across the central CONUS...yesterday's storm was a direct hit for N IL and most of N MI.  It certainly filled my snow fix for the season which I was missing as it snowed literally the entire day from when I was at Church around 7:30am till just after 9:00pm.  See you next year???  

 

 

 

 

 

Waking up this morning ande seeing a snow cover is pretty interesting.  All the while, the birds are chirping and singing wondering "what the heck happened"?.  It is very bright with the higher sun angle as it rises higher and higher each and every morning.  This snow will be history by tomorrow and the focus turns towards an active week of wx and a warm one.  Speaking of warmth, Easter Sunday looks delightful for many of us on this board.  You won't see bunnies burrowing in Snow this year, instead, the kiddos will be out playing in the yards/parks while searching for Eggs.  

 

[Niko]

Very unsettled week weatherwise this week and next week doesn't look any better w plenty of rain chances.

[Niko]

Currently at 36F w cloudy skies.

[Hawkeye]

Models are not on the same page later this week.  The euro phases the northern and southern energy and very slowly moves the big low across the upper midwest, keeping precip going into Friday night.  The NAM, on the other hand, keeps the northern and southern energy more separate and shows a dominant northern stream sweeping everything away by midnight Wednesday night.  The NAM essentially has nothing here while the euro has 2+ inches of rain.

 

Update:  The GFSs are in between the NAM and Euro.  The Canadian agrees with the quick NAM.

 

I still haven't received a real heavy downpour since late February.  All of our rain since then has come from light to moderate showers.  The streets are still full of sand and dirt, so we could use a heavy storm to wash it all away.

[Niko]

Skies have become sunny, except for a few fair weather clouds and breezy conditions w temps still nippy at 39F. Highs will be near 48F.