April 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stormhunter87]

GFS some what on board. Could be an interesting week next week.

[james1976]

Why did the Euro do that? Lol

[Grizzcoat]

[Money]

GFS

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019040406&fh=210&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

 

Fv3

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_acc&rh=2019040406&fh=210&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Tom]

ecmwfued-null--usnc-240-C-kucheratot.png

Completely normal to see such a massive snowstorm in April...hope it happens...carry on!  Prob not the last one this month as the next storm tee's up a few days later.  

[Tom]

00z Euro...a different look...boy, that's an aggressive looking 00z EPS snow mean...Flashbacks of last year are starting to show up.  My goodness.

[Tom]

Back to Back winter storms by mid April???  It's on the table.  If your a fan of Spring snowstorms, this pattern shaping up across the heartland is something really fascinating.  The 00z EPS snow mean over the next 2 weeks looks more like maps we saw during the Feb snow blitz.  Unreal.  You call that normal??? 

 

 

[Tom]

The weekend can't come here soon enough.  Might not hit 70F, but that string of 60's sure looks pretty.  By mid next week, the tables turn and a lot of us will be stuck in some miserable mid Spring weather.  Get out and enjoy this string of warmth bc it will be a history for quite some time.

 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

I figured it’d probably end up north of here... but man, not great for the flooding situation if that were to even come close to verifying.

 

On another note, got 0.27” of rain overnight.

[Clinton]

Back to Back winter storms by mid April???  It's on the table.  If your a fan of Spring snowstorms, this pattern shaping up across the heartland is something really fascinating.  The 00z EPS snow mean over the next 2 weeks looks more like maps we saw during the Feb snow blitz.  Unreal.  You call that normal??? 

This can't be good for the flooding situation.  We are saturated down here and it looks like there will be no relief for anyone near the Missouri River.

[Tom]

We are about to enter an incredibly active southern stream pattern as an unusually strong STJ ramps up next week.  I have 3 or 4 storms on the calendar through the 20th of this month which will all likely coming out of the SW/Rockies and develop into the Plains.  All awhile, high lat blocking locks across North America and storms will "bowl" there marry way across the heartland.  I'm really discouraged about this pattern bc it will probably cause delayed planting for the ag belt from wet/cool soils.  Not a good combination to have during an important part of the season.  Big time Severe Wx threat is shaping up for the S Plains/S MW/OV which was my early call from a number of weeks ago.  Not really seeing a good severe wx set up yet across the Plains or MW/GL's region.

 

Last night 00z EPS show casing the battle zone in temps Day 5-10 which bodes well for Severe Wx down S/SE of here....then cold takes over but I'm sure there will be bouts of more storm potential in between storm systems.  Overall, the wet pattern looks like it took a script from "Noah's Ark".

[james1976]

It looks like I better take advantage of this weekend to get some things down outdoors.

[St Paul Storm]

I would love that! For sure would get my spring fert down and some seed in bare spots before it hit too! Extra nitrogen and the snow melt does great at forcing seeds in the ground!

That’s actually a really good idea. I might take advantage of the warmth this weekend and do that, just in case this madness actually pans out.

[St Paul Storm]

00z Euro...a different look...boy, that's an aggressive looking 00z EPS snow mean...Flashbacks of last year are starting to show up. My goodness.

Man oh man this would be a kick to the junk. That baro zone is going to be in a precarious spot. Not liking what I’m seeing here.

[Tom]

Man oh man this would be a kick to the junk. That baro zone is going to be in a precarious spot. Not liking what I’m seeing here.

Brotha, the long range pattern ain't lookin' pretty so get out and enjoy this warmth as I'm sure many of us will be doing just that.  My earlier thoughts of this April not being a repeat of last years cold and wintry month are starting to head south.  While I don't expect it to be as severely cold, the amount of storms and chances for wintry precip are abnormally high for April.  Still riding hope May flips around like I hope it will.

 

Last year's April...

 

 

 

 

Much drier than this year's set up due to the extreme cold and unfavorable storm track.

[Tom]

06z Euro suggesting more sunshine around here and temps may top 70F locally on Sunday....come on baby!  Those living near the lake on Saturday will have a lake breeze kick in late afternoon so this would end up being the pic day of the week if it holds up.

[Tom]

I just compared the last 3 runs of the Euro and all 3 of them have advertised a wound up snow storm with wind gusts exceeding 40mph reaching Blizzard criteria.  Nature might not be done yet with this seasons "blizzard alley".  It would be quite remarkable to squeeze out yet another major snowstorm (or 2) this month.

[CentralNebWeather]

I just compared the last 3 runs of the Euro and all 3 of them have advertised a wound up snow storm with wind gusts exceeding 40mph reaching Blizzard criteria.  Nature might not be done yet with this seasons "blizzard alley".  It would be quite remarkable to squeeze out yet another major snowstorm (or 2) this month.

Hastings says they will be closely watching a potential winter storm next week.  Even though I love blizzards, it would be disastrous for Nebraska in areas that are still struggling with flood problems, though heavy rain wouldn't be welcomed either at this point.

[Stacsh]

Looking cool in the heart of the nation.  Baking to the north and south for mid- april.  Pretty typical for Michigan at least.  We've had many May's stuck in the low 50's.  Seems like a normal spring here.  Glad I don't live where I'd have to deal with snowstorms next week.  

[westMJim]

Today is opening day at Detroit. Today looks cold once again Here are the opening day temperatures going back to 2000. 2018/39. 2017/42, 2016/28,2015/52, 2014/52, 2013/45, 2012/43, 2011/43, 2010/38, 2009/51, 2008/51,2007/62, 2006/54,2005/68, 2004/46, 2003/35, 2002/37, 2001 and 2000/36. So the range has been from 35 to 68.

[Hawkeye]

Last night's rain system was a dud.  Only 0.14" fell here and even locations under the best rain only received about 0.25".

 

Now Sunday's system has become increasingly disorganized on the models, so we may not get much from that.  That may allow us to get warmer, though, which is nice.

[Hawkeye]

Each euro run is pulling down less cold air out ahead of the big storm next Wed/Thu, so the storm tracks farther north.

[St Paul Storm]

That 12z Euro is something out of a bad dream.

[Tom]

That 12z Euro is something out of a bad dream.

I was just gonna say...4th run in a row showing a major Blizzard and this run has it primarily for MN/N WI and the Dakotas....maybe parts of E NE/IA? Ready for 2-3’ of snow? Haha...almost to the date with last years Monster.

[CentralNebWeather]

I was just gonna say...4th run in a row showing a major Blizzard and this run has it primarily for MN/N WI and the Dakotas....maybe parts of E NE/IA? Ready for 2-3’ of snow? Haha...almost to the date with last years Monster.

At the end of the 12z run, it is showing a 2nd system that hits, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa on weather.us if I am seeing it correctly.

[gabel23]

I was just gonna say...4th run in a row showing a major Blizzard and this run has it primarily for MN/N WI and the Dakotas....maybe parts of E NE/IA? Ready for 2-3’ of snow? Haha...almost to the date with last years Monster.

There is something about this date wow. Last year we were in a blizzard warning; then in 2014 we had another blizzard on this same date! Second picture below is the one from 2014, just crazy. 

[gabel23]

You know things could be interesting if OAX is talking about it. 

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2019

Spring warmth and beautiful days continue Monday and Tuesday. This
prolonged sense of warmer weather will be enjoyable, but could be
replaced by an abrupt shift back to normal Wednesday and Thursday
as a strong trough crosses the Rockies, and could even bring snow
to northeast NE by Thursday. Models are in pretty good agreement 7
days out for the middle of next week, which is concerning. Both
the GFS/ECMWF models suggest strong cyclogenesis taking place next
week, putting at least a part of the forecast area in a favorable
location for a potential winter storm with colder temperatures,
strong winds, and heavy snow. Still a week away, so plenty of time
for things to change, but it`s now within our seven day window.
Looks like rain Wednesday, then rain changing to snow north of I80
next Thursday April 11th. Looking further beyond that, models are
in good agreement with another strong wintry system affecting the
mid Missouri Valley the following weekend. Stay tuned.

[CentralNebWeather]

There is something about this date wow. Last year we were in a blizzard warning; then in 2014 we had another blizzard on this same date! Second picture below is the one from 2014, just crazy. 

I was just talking about the blizzard last year the other day.  We left the Nebraska Huskers High School Football Coaches Clinic early to beat the storm.  We got back to Holdrege as the interstate was being shut down at Lexington.  For the Euro to be showing a possibility of 2 storms in April is not unheard of.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Any other Nebraskans on here notice how short the Hastings discos have been recently?  It is like they can't type them quick enough.  Very little to no information and almost written like they are writing a forecast for a radio station.  I want more in depth information from discussions.  They have one person, don't know his or her name, that is excellent and you can tell this person's knowledge as you start reading.  Just something I have noticed lately.

[gabel23]

Any other Nebraskans on here notice how short the Hastings discos have been recently?  It is like they can't type them quick enough.  Very little to no information and almost written like they are writing a forecast for a radio station.  I want more in depth information from discussions.  They have one person, don't know his or her name, that is excellent and you can tell this person's knowledge as you start reading.  Just something I have noticed lately.

I've noticed that too. Your right; can't wait to get it done with this statement:

 

Beyond this, the next big weather maker will be the mid-week storm

that will most certainly give us some strong wind, if not some

measurable snow. Still too early to get into any specifics.

 

&&

[clintbeed1993]

Any other Nebraskans on here notice how short the Hastings discos have been recently?  It is like they can't type them quick enough.  Very little to no information and almost written like they are writing a forecast for a radio station.  I want more in depth information from discussions.  They have one person, don't know his or her name, that is excellent and you can tell this person's knowledge as you start reading.  Just something I have noticed lately.

 

I've noticed that a TON lately.  During some legit storms this winter there was still very little being written.  I think it's inexcusable.  These people get paid to put their weather knowledge on display for the public.  Most of these write ups have been something I or any weather enthusiast could do, I think that's ridiculous.

[CentralNebWeather]

I've noticed that a TON lately.  During some legit storms this winter there was still very little being written.  I think it's inexcusable.  These people get paid to put their weather knowledge on display for the public.  Most of these write ups have been something I or any weather enthusiast could do, I think that's ridiculous.

It is frustrating when I see the depth of technical information that North Platte and Goodland usually goes into.  When the certain person or people write, I get excited knowing they will provide more information to validate things said on the forum.  

[Minny_Weather]

It is frustrating when I see the depth of technical information that North Platte and Goodland usually goes into.  When the certain person or people write, I get excited knowing they will provide more information to validate things said on the forum.  

The AFD isn't supposed to be THE forecast, it's supposed to state the meteorological reasoning behind their grid forecast. It's frustrating how many NWS forecasters don't understand that concept.

[Andie]

We had a high of 87 today. Early for that. And we'll see highs in the 80's through Wednesday.

 

Tomorrow evening we are forecast for heavy rain and storms with possible hail and strong wind.

Rain and storms will stay with us till Sunday early.

 

First real Spring storm is here.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Saw an interesting tweet from meteorologist Ken Shimek from 10/11 TV in Lincoln. Concordia Kansas in North Central Kansas has received 48.2” of snow so far, average there is 19.9”, almost 30” above normal. With more storms possible in the next 10 days or so, records could continue to be smashed. Amazing.

[hlcater]

I'm not seeing anything that strongly advocates for a particularly cold rest of spring. Week two looks kinda chilly up in the lakes, with stout -NAO taking shape(of course lol) for a time. Because of this, I cant see even the strongest lows tracking too far northeast during this time period. What is interesting though is how this -NAO doesn't seem to want to last too long and GEFS pulls out of the nose dive toward the end of its run. One more thing I've noticed is how, when given the chance, the SER tends to bloom a bit more than it has in previous years. These factors combined make me skeptical of any longstanding, entrenched cold, especially with south and eastward extent. I think this SER really begins to flex its muscles once the -NAO is done having a tantrum.

 

In terms of severe weather, I see reason to be optimistic over the coming weeks as a whole, but nothing too terribly exciting in our area. One thing I like is the continued activity with numerous systems swinging through the west over the next 2 weeks. The switch to a -PNA is also a welcome sign and this should hopefully help promote some more steady state western troughing than we've seen so far. The -NAO doesn't leave me optimistic for the GLs/Midwest though and I think any severe weather would be confined to the S. Plains/Dixie at best. As far as particular dates, the time frame from the 12th-15th has me particularly interested as both ensembles and deterministic runs are zeroing in on a strong system diving into the west for this period. I linked a GEFS snapshot below.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Fired up a Storm Thread for the potential Major Spring Storm late next week...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2018-410-412-plainsgls-potential-major-spring-storm/

[Andie]

Saw an interesting tweet from meteorologist Ken Shimek from 10/11 TV in Lincoln. Concordia Kansas in North Central Kansas has received 48.2” of snow so far, average there is 19.9”, almost 30” above normal. With more storms possible in the next 10 days or so, records could continue to be smashed. Amazing.

We had double our average rain in North Texas. 62"

Incredibly damp winter. We aren't used to it and many having health issues because of it.

We'll see this spring goes.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am trying to find my exact amount of snow for my location through April 5th.  I am sure it is in the 40-48" range.  If we get 1 or 2 more snow storms in the coming 10 days we might get into uncharted waters around here for records.

[gabel23]

I am trying to find my exact amount of snow for my location through April 5th.  I am sure it is in the 40-48" range.  If we get 1 or 2 more snow storms in the coming 10 days we might get into uncharted waters around here for records.

I did my total yesterday and to date I'm at 37"; pretty much the same exact total I got last year. Going off this map is pretty darn accurate from what I can tell.