April 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stormy]

My point forecast has it getting up to 77° today. I hit 71° yesterday & 72° on Saturday. Tomorrow should be nice as well, but cooler. Rainfall yesterday only amounted to 0.31” here. Was nice to hear thunder rumbling again last eve, but storms pooped out before they got here.

I’m afraid I might get dry slotted with the Thursday system.

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  I just stepped outside this morning and it certainly feels and smells like Spring.  The rainfall from yesterday has kept it real moist and damp.  Looking forward to working from home today while basking in the sunshine.  Local grid has me topping out at 74F!  

[Andie]

Glad Spring has arrived for you up there Tom.

 

Texas is facing its first 90* day this week. Seems early to me for that. Usually that's an early May thing.

Here's how the week shape up in the Southern Plains.

 

Mon. High 85. Low 57

Tues .........89........66

Wed..........91........59 Windy

Thur..........73........46

Fri.............69........50

Sat............61........47 Rain (1")

Sun...........70........50

 

Typical Texas Spring Roller Coaster of Temps/Wind/Rain.....Rinse and Repeat

[Tom]

Some LR thoughts on this Real Spring-like day in Chicago.  As sad as this may sound, I'm not really enthusiastic to see any sustained warmth throughout the extended, the exception will be for a 2-3 day period in between storms (16th-18th), this will be followed by a potential significant storm system that will tug down some really chilly air for the time of year and yes...possibly more snow for the northern tier???  Ol' Man Winter ain't done just yet.  What I think may happen post 19th/20th may truly be quite unusual and I'm sticking with it based off of some big clues I'm seeing.  One can make a plausible argument the next 2 weeks will end up far from being normal.

 

Take a look what is being advertised off the 00z GEFS 10mb Strat animation below and you can clearly see the Arctic will have significant warming in the Week 1-2 period allowing for major blocking to take shape. Overnight 00z EPS is certainly painting an ugly pattern across North America and into the lower 48 as the North American Vortex is not going down easily this season and may take hold across North America.

 

00z EPS Day 10-15 temps overall look cool to cold...I'm expecting this to trend colder as we get closer in time.

 

EDIT: My prediction is for the Euro Weeklies to trend much colder Week 2-4 and my reasoning has a lot to do with what is happening in the Strat.  Just plain old ugly I tell ya.

[Niko]

Currently at 50F w cloudy skies and a bit damp outside from what I am seeing from my homeoffice windows.

[Hawkeye]

I'm surprised nobody is mentioning the euro's seIA-chicago snowstorm on Sunday.  It has been shifting farther nw with each run.  The GFS has this storm well southeast and warmer.

[Stormy]

Such an awesome morning!

Below normal temps this time of the year aren’t nearly as bad as in the winter IMO. The only time I like below normal is in the summer! May and September are are my favorite months tempwise. Especially May because we get more storms.

Anyway, I saw we were having lows in the teens 1 yr ago at this time on several consecutive days and very cold highs! I’m not expecting such extremes anymore this month.

[Niko]

Such an awesome morning!

Below normal temps this time of the year aren’t nearly as bad as in the winter IMO. The only time I like below normal is in the summer! May and September are are my favorite months tempwise. Especially May because we get more storms.

Anyway, I saw we were having lows in the teens 1 yr ago at this time on several consecutive days and very cold highs! I’m not expecting such extremes anymore this month.

Just took out my garbage bin and it feels awesome out there w that mild wind blowing around.

[Niko]

Currently at 61F w mostly cloudy skies and windy conditions.

[Tom]

What a Marvelous Monday! Great wx to start the week. Absolutely splendid out here today.

[Niko]

Mostly sunny skies and beautiful out there w temps at 70F. Ya just cannot be inside in this type of weather. Wow!

 

Jaster buddy...are ya in the 70s tempwise today or what. I am pretty sure I did not break a record today, but sure feels fantasiko outside. My grass is getting greener and greener

[OmahaSnowFan]

I've made it up to 79.5 in my backyard so far today. It would be nice to crack 80!

[Snowshoe]

Listening the Cubs give the Bucs a beat down while walking this afternoon was pure delight! 73^o at the moment. Clouds are getting thicker and the winds of change are cranking up. It's all downhill from here. 

[Tom]

Mostly sunny skies and beautiful out there w temps at 70F. Ya just cannot be inside in this type of weather. Wow!

 

Jaster buddy...are ya in the 70s tempwise today or what. I am pretty sure I did not break a record today, but sure feels fantasiko outside. My grass is getting greener and greener

Especially with today's wx, the grass has noticeably gotten much greener.  Starting to look more Spring like...slowly...

[Stormy]

[Niko]

Especially with today's wx, the grass has noticeably gotten much greener.  Starting to look more Spring like...slowly...

Splendid weather indeed.

[Niko]

Made it up to 78° here. 77° still at 5:30pm.

It actually felt like it was in the 80s today. I think we topped off in the mid to upper 70s. I just checked. My high temp was 70F. Any outdoor sport activity today was approved by the weather.

[Minny_Weather]

Made it up to 82.5°F here today. With the dryness of the air, temps are plummeting and we're already down to 70.7°F.

[Andie]

Any opinions on this. Who here lives in Minn.?

 

[Iowawx]

Cedar Rapids got up to 77 degrees today. That's a bit warmer than what was forecasted, but still was really nice outside! 

[gabel23]

Any opinions on this. Who here lives in Minn.?

 

IMG_3642.PNG

Holy smokes 20-24”+?! That’s insane whatever month it is.

[Hawkeye]

After shifting back southeast this morning, tonight's Euro has gone back nw with the Sunday system.  It is fairly strong and plenty cold aloft for snow in Iowa.  Other models have gone farther nw as well, although not nearly as much as the euro.

 

Update: Euro has a swath of 0.80" precip, all snow, through eastern Iowa.

[Stormy]

After shifting back southeast this morning, tonight's Euro has gone back nw with the Sunday system.  It is fairly strong and plenty cold aloft for snow in Iowa.  Other models have gone farther nw as well, although not nearly as much as the euro.

 

Update: Euro has a swath of 0.80" precip, all snow, through eastern Iowa.

Might be more of storm here then the one this week!

[Tom]

After shifting back southeast this morning, tonight's Euro has gone back nw with the Sunday system.  It is fairly strong and plenty cold aloft for snow in Iowa.  Other models have gone farther nw as well, although not nearly as much as the euro.

 

Update: Euro has a swath of 0.80" precip, all snow, through eastern Iowa.

00z EPS is trending more wintry around these parts and into WI/MI...Back-to-Back winter storms???  Quite an impressive pattern teeing up as Ol' Man Winter is not letting go of its grip.  I'll prob wait a day or two before starting a thread as our main attention will obviously be for the Powerhouse Blizzard this week.  

[Tom]

Folks, I'm not sure where to begin, as there is so much going on in the "world of the weather" across our globe that will have a direct impact into our part of the world.  As a weather enthusiast and someone who follows the state of the climate along with the cyclical nature of wx patterns, I find it very interesting and fascinating to see clues being advertised in the modeling both near term and long term.  Focusing our attn to the remainder of this month, I struggle to find any reasonable warm spells as the relentless active pattern, coupled with a potent STJ and the northern Polar branch, is poised to deliver more winter-like storm systems over the next 2 weeks.  When the heck will this pattern break???  The demise of the Polar Vortex will happen, but this year it is holding on strong but there are signs in the longer range as we head into May that it will break down.  However, before then, the last hurrah is taking aim post 19th/20th where I believe some record cold is on the table esp for those places up north that still will have snow OTG from the Blizzard this week and another possible potent mid lat cyclone around the 19th/20th.

 

I've been doing a lot of research into the state of the climate and there is a lot of evidence our atmosphere is going through a major shift towards stronger systems on a global scale and amplifications of our jet streams into regions that don't normally see such strong storms.  Needless to say, we might be seeing vigorous storms more often than not over the next 2-3 years as we head into the peak (2021-2022) before it backs down some.  I both admire nature and am quite intrigued to see her full scope of beast & beauty throughout the remainder of this year.  IMHO, I fully anticipate to see unusually strong troughs to track through our Sub Forum this summer and my gut is starting to sense a "year without a summer' for some of our members across the central Plains.

 

With state of the Polar Vortex on my mind, I'll give you a glimpse as to why I honestly believe a nasty late season cold shot remains to be seen as we close out the last 10 days of April.  The demise and collapse of the Stratospheric Vortex will eventually happen and a piece of it may straddle across North America...this has been the pattern since Oct/Nov when the North American Vortex began taking shape and the LRC was developing.  Take a look below at the Day 16 GEFS maps and I am almost certain something real close transpires as we close out this month.  

[Andie]

Holy smokes 20-24”+?! That’s insane whatever month it is.

I caught an early morning summary on this frigid system moving west to east across the northern states. Don't put the coats away yet, friends! Lots of cold ahead.

 

Texas is known for its Easter cold snap. I'm curious if the southern states will see a near freeze just before Easter.

[westMJim]

It is sunny and 51 here at my house, I now have Crocus, Daffodils, and Hyacinths in bloom. And with the rain the grass is now turning green so all in all spring is showing its self around here, BTW there are still some parking lots snow piles left as well. If we do get any snow it will not last too long. Remember the sun's angle is now the same as September 2nd

[Niko]

Marvelous day today w plentiful sunshine and temps are a bit nippy, currently in the 40s.

[Hawkeye]

GFS trending toward the euro for Sunday.

 

[Hawkeye]

FV3 also now jumping on board.  Still east of the euro, but much closer.

 

[jaster220]

Back-2-back 70's Sun-Mon! Not only is my lawn green, I could legit mow a portion of it where it kept growing prior to the mid-Nov freeze-up. 

[Niko]

It is sunny and 51 here at my house, I now have Crocus, Daffodils, and Hyacinths in bloom. And with the rain the grass is now turning green so all in all spring is showing its self around here, BTW there are still some parking lots snow piles left as well. If we do get any snow it will not last too long. Remember the sun's angle is now the same as September 2nd

Nothing here yet......

[Niko]

FV3 also now jumping on board.  Still east of the euro, but much closer.

 

Yikes, that rain/snow line is getting closer and closer to SMI.

[Hawkeye]

It is sunny and 51 here at my house, I now have Crocus, Daffodils, and Hyacinths in bloom. And with the rain the grass is now turning green so all in all spring is showing its self around here, BTW there are still some parking lots snow piles left as well. If we do get any snow it will not last too long. Remember the sun's angle is now the same as September 2nd

 

Our grass is beginning to grow.  I'll probably have to mow a few shaggy spots in a week or so.  I need to get my mower blades sharpened.

 

We also have daffodils blooming, and the trees are budding.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro appears to have nudged southeast again with the Sunday system, takes the low from se MO to Detroit.

 

The euro is also loading up again for another possible biggie at day 8+.  Last night's run had another bomb similar to the current one.

[Hawkeye]

Boom! - Day 9

 

Strong, wrapped up low, right through Iowa, as always.

 

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro snow precip map for the Sunday system

 

[Clinton]

12z Euro snow precip map for the Sunday system

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019040912_144_5660_323.png

Dang and I thought I was done for the year.

[Tom]

Is Nature developing a 3-peat??? I mean, you have to sit back and take a minute and just be in awe to see the Euro spitting out this much snow across our board for mid April. A number days ago I had 3 storms on the calendar through the 20th and nearly every single model is now showing all them lining up in 2-3 day intervals. We are about to enter a deluge of strong, wrapped up storm systems and the last one around 18th/19th could be quite a doozy.

 

The atmosphere is primed up and nearly every teleconnection over the next 2 weeks is lining up towards something you do not often isee in mid-Spring. You know, I'll have to be a bit honest here, but I did not fully anticipate what is now being advertised in the longer range. There is some serious late season cold showing up for the time of year and reminds me of the amplified North American pattern we saw in year's past. This may have big implications going forward in the longer range heading into summer and yes, next year's developing LRC but I'll chime in on that in the months ahead.

 

In the meantime, we have to get through April and the storm train which is forthcoming. The 2 day break in the cold mid next week (16-17th) ahead of the potentially large mid lat cyclone may be muted for some across the MW/GL's but for those farther south it'll feel like Summer. Following this system, a direct discharge of cold will spill out of Canada and the latest info is suggesting re-surging shots of cold into the eastern CONUS for the foreseeable future. Back to #DelayedSpring in the extended. My feeling was spot on, the EPS is trending colder in the extended and lines up quite well with the 10mb Strat forecasts I've been showing all along.

[Niko]

Definitely feels cold outside as temps are hovering in the 30s under mostly cloudy skies w on and off snowflurries flying around.