April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[MossMan]

Sun popping out along with a little drizzle at Lake Goodwin.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

There were a handful of mostly dry afternoons even down there last week.

 

The grass was too wet most of the time, and the one afternoon it was dry enough, I was picking up my kids from their mom.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z stays wet and eventually turns into a pretty good mountain snow pattern too.

[El_Nina]

Already 0.56" today after 1.11" yesterday and it's still raining.

[Jesse]

Looking at the radar I’m surprised PDX isn’t recording any rain right now. It’s pouring here in Sandy.

[Jesse]

12z stays wet and eventually turns into a pretty good mountain snow pattern too.

Really a great run.

[Jesse]

Cool and unsettled.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the radar I’m surprised PDX isn’t recording any rain right now. It’s pouring here in Sandy.

 

Looks like they are about right on the precip cuttoff line for the moment.

[El_Nina]

Looking at the radar I’m surprised PDX isn’t recording any rain right now. It’s pouring here in Sandy.

Welcome to town.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Flood Warning for
The Siuslaw River near Mapleton
* from this afternoon to late Monday night.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was...16.1 feet / 18300 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22600 cfs.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is forecast to rise above flood stage around
1 PM Sunday and is expected to crest at 22.2 ft around 11 PM
Sunday.
* Impact...Above 22 ft, expect widespread flooding of low-lying land.
Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start to
flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River will
likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower sections of
Hwy 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated during high tide.

[Requiem]

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

 

* Flood Warning for

The Siuslaw River near Mapleton

* from this afternoon to late Monday night.

* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was...16.1 feet / 18300 cfs.

* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22600 cfs.

* Moderate flooding is forecast.

* Forecast...This river is forecast to rise above flood stage around

1 PM Sunday and is expected to crest at 22.2 ft around 11 PM

Sunday.

* Impact...Above 22 ft, expect widespread flooding of low-lying land.

Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start to

flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River will

likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower sections of

Hwy 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated during high tide.

Rain totals look very significant for April, wow.

[Blizzard777]

A Huge .96 total rain for April so far!

My wife is down in Bastrop Texas ( near Austin). They got slammed with severe T-Storm all night long! So jealous ....sucks to be me

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A Huge .96 total rain for April so far!

My wife is down in Bastrop Texas ( near Austin). They got slammed with severe T-Storm all night long! So jealous ....sucks to be me

 

I saw some of the damage from Texas. Not sure I would envy that!

[Phil]

Things always even out eventually. It has actually been quite dry here for the past several weeks until the last few days. I'm reasonably confident it will be a really dry late spring and summer again this year.

Intriguing take. Why do you say that?

 

The intraseasonal signal does look warm/dry for a few weeks in May, but the low pass (background) signal has a fantastic moisture draw this year for the West. The domain of off-equator EPAC diabatic release and ventilation is no longer in destructive interference with the deep tropical forcing where it would contribute to a widening of the Hadley Cell and 4CH. It’s a more contracted, symmetrical mode that will produce flatter 4CH and more weak dirty ridging over the exteatropical NPAC and troughing in the GOA. Reminds me of 1997 (and several other 1990s years with a sprinkle of 2002). Not chilly, but not a hot, dry furnace either.

 

Average to slightly mild year with plenty of onshore flow even during the summer months.

[Phil]

3rd driest March in history (going back to 1898) at the Cedar Lake station:

 

1992 - 2.19

1965 - 2.41

2019 - 2.69

 

 

And 6th driest March at Snoqualmie Falls (going back to 1899):

 

1965 - 1.00

1992 - 1.73

1911 - 2.13

1906 - 2.15

1924 - 2.26

2019 - 2.27

What are the next 3-4 above 2019?

[Perturbed Member]

Really good soaking the last 36 hours. Well over an inch here. Looks like another very wet day today, especially starting late this afternoon into the evening hours.

 

Yeah it came down pretty hard last night. Had a pretty impressive heavy hail shower Saturday AM too, turned the road white briefly. 

Loving this active weather. Keep the rain coming 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL FOR APRIL 6...
 

LOCATION       DAILY RAIN (INCHES)   PREVIOUS (YEAR)

-------------------------------------------------------

HILLSBORO          0.77                0.59 (1963)

PORTLAND           0.78                0.61 (2013)

TROUTDALE          0.88                0.79 (2013)

SALEM              1.21                0.89 (1980)

 

[Requiem]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty big cutoff. Very impressive south of Salem but pretty meh in PDX

 

Meh, but still easily broke the daily record...Eugene had much more than PDX yesterday, but it wasn't even a record.

[ShawniganLake]

[Requiem]

Meh, but still easily broke the daily record...Eugene had much more than PDX yesterday, but it wasn't even a record.

I just chalked that up to the PDX official station having very wimpy records in most events compared to the rest of the metro. Anyways, seems like the area’s always in the middle when it comes to major stuff.

[Requiem]

Unimpressive records?

Basically, kind of a low bar.

[Front Ranger]

Relativity.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Driest March every for Shawnigan Lake with 0.57”. Previous record was 0.75” from 1924. Farther north, Comox recorded just 0.18” of precip, also a record. I think their previous record was over 1”.

 

It's getting a bit ridiculous now; February was dry overall, only 0.59" here in March and just 0.13" so far this month. The dry season is just around the corner, takes more and more rain to overcome the evaporation rate at this time of year even as it becomes less and less likely.

[jcmcgaffey]

Just left from seattle to Bend Oregon to visit the in laws. Was really dumping rain up near Mt Hood. It’s raining pretty good east of the mountains as well. I noticed that just west of the Mt Hood area, has more undergrowth than the areas up near Seattle it reminds me more of areas west of the Olympics. Hood is probably a little more exposed than areas up north that might be more affected by the Olympic rain shadow.

[El_Nina]

Snowing on Mt. Hood too, even some falling all the way down to Govy.

[Omegaraptor]

Just left from seattle to Bend Oregon to visit the in laws. Was really dumping rain up near Mt Hood. It’s raining pretty good east of the mountains as well. I noticed that just west of the Mt Hood area, has more undergrowth than the areas up near Seattle it reminds me more of areas west of the Olympics.

 

Intense orographic effect in that area. Sandy gets almost 80" a year, Brightwood just east of Sandy gets about 86".

[ShawniganLake]

It's getting a bit ridiculous now; February was dry overall, only 0.59" here in March and just 0.13" so far this month. The dry season is just around the corner, takes more and more rain to overcome the evaporation rate at this time of year even as it becomes less and less likely.

We had some heavy showers yesterday here. 0.69” in April

[Omegaraptor]

Of course the current storm misses the Tualatin Valley as per usual. 

[Front Ranger]

The GFS is showing that the 11th will be a brief return to winter with chilly stratiform drizzle and highs possibly not even breaking 50. If this verifies it would be about 10ºF below normal for the daily high. The ECMWF is showing a warmer solution, however.

 

The Plains region (including Denver) will be cold on that day, complete with snow, at least on the GFS.

 

Yeah, looking like we could go from a high near 80 on Tuesday to snow about 24 hours later.

[Front Ranger]

OLM has yet to see more than .38" of precip in a day since 2/12. Normally they would see 5-6 days with .50"+ in that period.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, looking like we could go from a high near 80 on Tuesday to snow about 24 hours later.

 

 

00Z ECMWF showed over 40 inches of snow this coming week in southern MN... the 12Z run backed off a little.    

 

But still ridiculous for April...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 1.14" of rain since midnight. Heaviest rain right now on a line between Salem and the south Metro area. 

[snow_wizard]

Driest March every for Shawnigan Lake with 0.57”. Previous record was 0.75” from 1924. Farther north, Comox recorded just 0.18” of precip, also a record. I think their previous record was over 1”.

 

Simply incredible numbers being put up for various weather types over the past couple of months!

[snow_wizard]

Seems like these storms coming through could potentially be the last significant rains until October. It will obviously rain again before and during the summer but it will probably be hot and dry this summer like usual.

Yesterday’s wind event was just about what I was expecting, only right near the sound and coast and 10-15mph under the 12/20 and 1/6 storms. Winds made it to 45mph yesterday. Due to it being April the systems winds obviously weren’t close to the duration or intensity of the previous storms. And they were a lot more localized.

There’s been a lot of significant wind events this season, yesterday was the 5th time winds of 45+ mph were observed imby. 12/14, 12/20, 1/6, 2/27 and 4/6. Winds reached 60mph twice 12/20 and 1/6. Winds were also strong here on 2/4, 2/10 but only 35-40mph. Coupled with heavy snowfall on 2/8 and 2/11, there was more downed trees and tree/shrub damage in my neighborhood from storms this year than I have seen since 2012 during the icestorm in January.

There was many different significant weather events that happened this winter more than I can remember in one season. I know that there’s been a few years in the past 10-15 years that have had a good amount of storms but this season just had everything from wind to snow to thunderstorms even a few times this fall which doesn’t happen too often.

 

Yeah...I've had a lot of wind here too.  A huge number of days with moderately strong east winds besides some south wind events thrown in.

[Blizzard777]

I saw some of the damage from Texas. Not sure I would envy that!

Definitely left a mark, over 2.5 inches of rain as well. Still waiting to hear if the car was damaged from the golf ball size hail.

I’m sure she wants nothing to do with this type of setup again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Eugene is up to 1.36" of rain since midnight 

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny afternoon here now and pleasant... no rain during the day.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flood warnings now posted for the Long Tom, Mohawk, and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers in the Southern Willamette Valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking like next weekend could be wet too.