June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Not much lightning. But WOW. This is the 1/10/17 of downpours. I got some videos of it. 15 straight minutes of monsoon rain. The lame part about it is that it seems fairly localized - a lot of the Portland area will miss out.

Aftermath on the street:

[Requiem]

It's been raining for quite a while now.

[High Desert Mat?]

61 here with over a quarter inch of rain so far. Very nice.

 

PDX somehow managed to bump up to 65, but that’s still good for their coolest 6/20-8/20 high in five years.

Impressive. Glad there’s guys like you around to catch this.

[jcmcgaffey]

61 here with over a quarter inch of rain so far. Very nice.

 

PDX somehow managed to bump up to 65, but that’s still good for their coolest 6/20-8/20 high in five years.

I know it’s still early but I still think this summer is not going to torch like recent summers. I think something changed in February where we have been getting deeper longer lasting troughs and the general long term pattern setup has shifted over so that we are not under a ridge as much on the leeward side of the ridge with more nw flow. Phil can probably correct me with his long term thoughts but I feel like we will have more troughing and thunderstorms this summer. I feel like it has been forever since we have had a summer with good t-storms. It also may be because I moved from the foothills to Seattle which is shadowed much more from t-storms.

[Omegaraptor]

I know it’s still early but I still think this summer is not going to torch like recent summers. I think something changed in February where we have been getting deeper longer lasting troughs and the general long term pattern setup has shifted over so that we are not under a ridge as much on the leeward side of the ridge with more nw flow. Phil can probably correct me with his long term thoughts but I feel like we will have more troughing and thunderstorms this summer. I feel like it has been forever since we have had a summer with good t-storms. It also may be because I moved from the foothills to Seattle which is shadowed much more from t-storms.

 

2013 was a stormy summer in the PNW and it was the last real stormy summer if I recall. Recent summers have been very devoid of storms (even by west coast standards) due to persistent ridging, I believe.

 

And yeah, I definitely think February shifted up the atmospheric pattern a lot.

[James Jones]

The last couple days have been fun, the storm yesterday was one of the longest lasting lightning/heavy rain events I can remember seeing here. I had about an hour of steady rain and totaled a little over an inch from it, along with frequent lightning. Had another heavy rain shower a bit ago.

[Jesse]

I know it’s still early but I still think this summer is not going to torch like recent summers. I think something changed in February where we have been getting deeper longer lasting troughs and the general long term pattern setup has shifted over so that we are not under a ridge as much on the leeward side of the ridge with more nw flow. Phil can probably correct me with his long term thoughts but I feel like we will have more troughing and thunderstorms this summer. I feel like it has been forever since we have had a summer with good t-storms. It also may be because I moved from the foothills to Seattle which is shadowed much more from t-storms.

 

We'll see. The season is still young. The second half of June has definitely gone a lot better than I was picturing, though.

[Omegaraptor]

Extremely good last two days, looks like most of the PDX metro won with this one. Not sure about Clackamas County but Washington, Multnomah, and Clark all got some really good action at some point over the past two days.

[TacomaWaWx]

Extremely good last two days, looks like most of the PDX metro won with this one. Not sure about Clackamas County but Washington, Multnomah, and Clark all got some really good action at some point over the past two days.

I was jealous at first but then we had a good t-storm roll through finally today and got some rain so it’s all good. The t-storm yesterday in Portland seemed pretty intense.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is sure nice... for this weekend and for the 4th and beyond.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Thought we were done for the day (and possibly the season), but one more surprise shower came through around 8 p.m. and was the most productive of the day, dropping 0.23" and bringing the daily total to 0.34". That should be enough to help stave off fire danger and additional tree die-off for a little while, at least

Congrats. Very nice change from the last several years.

[Jesse]

GFS sure took a crap tonight. Today’s rain will probably be the last widespread rainfall for the region until sometime in September.

[TT-SEA]

Cedar Lake station is almost up to 4 inches on the month... almost all of which has come in the last 10 days.    Heading into the 4th of July still lush green here with no hint of dryness... similar to last year.     Last year and this year both featured lots of rain in the last 10 days of June... difference is this year the wealth was spread around a little more.

[Omegaraptor]

Last year had the Father’s Day T-storm, but it wasn’t as impressive as the 6/26-6/27 2019 storm.

 

Summer troughing can be pretty cool sometimes.

[Phil]

GFS sure took a crap tonight. Today’s rain will probably be the last widespread rainfall for the region until sometime in September.

Aaaand here we go again.

 

Then in 2 weeks when it’s a sea of blue showing up again at 500mb it will be Tim throwing a hissy fit.

 

The mood on this forum oscillates in sync with the intraseasonal cycles.

[Jesse]

Aaaand here we go again.

 

Then in 2 weeks when it’s a sea of blue showing up again at 500mb it will be Tim throwing a hissy fit.

 

The mood on this forum oscillates in sync with the intraseasonal cycles.

Humidity.

[Phil]

... similar to last year. Last year and this year both featured lots of rain in the last 10 days of June... difference is this year the wealth was spread around a little more.

Another difference between last year and this year is the fact they’re different in almost every way imaginable.

 

Sorry bud.

[TT-SEA]

Aaaand here we go again.

 

Then in 2 weeks when it’s a sea of blue showing up again at 500mb it will be Tim throwing a hissy fit.

 

The mood on this forum oscillates in sync with the intraseasonal cycles.

 

 

I don't think anyone is throwing a hissy fit except for you.

[TT-SEA]

Another difference between last year and this year is the fact they’re different in almost every way imaginable.

 

Sorry bud.

 

 

I said the last 10 days of June we similar in my area.   And it has been.   That is all.      

 

Phil is looking for a fight... he must be bored at 2:30 a.m.

[TacomaWaWx]

Cedar Lake station is almost up to 4 inches on the month... almost all of which has come in the last 10 days. Heading into the 4th of July still lush green here with no hint of dryness... similar to last year. Last year and this year both featured lots of rain in the last 10 days of June... difference is this year the wealth was spread around a little more.

Always interests me how some places get so much more rain than others in such close proximity. I understand why it happens it’s just interesting. June 2019 cedar lake station 4 inches then there’s Tacoma with 0.17” for June 2019. Tacoma is also a pretty dry outlier for the last 2 months most places in western WA have had more than that.

[Jesse]

00z EURO seems to hold the trough a bit closer to us next week than the GFS, and recent runs.

[TT-SEA]

00z EURO seems to hold the trough a bit closer to us next week than the GFS, and recent runs.

Its a little warmer earlier in the week... but a notch cooler for the 4th compared to the 12Z run.

[TT-SEA]

Always interests me how some places get so much more rain than others in such close proximity. I understand why it happens it’s just interesting. June 2019 cedar lake station 4 inches then there’s Tacoma with 0.17” for June 2019. Tacoma is also a pretty dry outlier for the last 2 months most places in western WA have had more than that.

Its a lush green drought out here.

[Phil]

A lot seems to depend on the strength and location of that hurricane in the EPAC during the cycle of AAM loss.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Its a lush green drought out here.

A lot drier here but still cool and just showery enough that I think we have lower fire danger this summer.

[Jesse]

A lot drier here but still cool and just showery enough that I think we have lower fire danger this summer.

 

The fire season is young. Three months to go...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The fire season is young. Three months to go...

Still already seems better than last year.

[Jesse]

Still already seems better than last year.

New normal.

[Omegaraptor]

Still already seems better than last year.

Undoubtedly better than last year. Cliff Mass even touched on it. Only one small fire has happened in the PNW thus far this summer.

[jcmcgaffey]

This article hits several hot topics I have seen argued on this forum:)

 

https://komonews.com/news/local/4000-lightning-strikes-spark-at-least-32-new-fires-across-pacific-northwest

[Phil]

There are 4 EPAC hurricanes in rapid succession on the 06z GFS. I it hard to believe that will verify given the CCKW passage is relatively rapid, but I suppose it’s possible under the continued +PMM (though it’s displaced westward now with a more southern ITCZ continuing on the low pass).

[Phil]

This article hits several hot topics I have seen argued on this forum:)

 

https://komonews.com/news/local/4000-lightning-strikes-spark-at-least-32-new-fires-across-pacific-northwest

Yikes. That’s one of the few benefits of living in the swamp, I guess. We’re literally Zeus’s dartboard during the summer but the wildfire risk is pretty much zero.

[Phil]

ITCZ. Hmm... International Convergence Zone?

Yep. Doesn’t match last year’s super broad structure but the southern-based years (even if they get started late) can be quite active across the Pacific with the focused forcing/divergence as opposed to broad cell that is more open to destructive interference, especially during the second half of the season in the EPAC (though it depends on ENSO/warm pool structure and it wasn’t the case last year).

 

I’d be nervous if I lived in HI this year, however. Nasty structural SSTA analogs showing up for them with the displacing of the +PMM west favoring that dome shape to the anomalies in ST divergence across the Pacific. The EPAC activity should trend westward with time, and it would not shock me if HI takes a direct hit this year. I almost expect it at this point.

[FroYoBro]

Have gotten a bunch of rainfall from heavy downpours in the last two days. The thunderstorm on Wednesday night was pretty insane. Very rare to be getting lightening that frequently for so long. It just kept going and going. I was in a pretty nice spot the last few days for HEAVY RAIN. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yep. Doesn’t match last year’s super broad structure but the southern-based years (even if they get started late) can be quite active across the Pacific with the focused forcing/divergence as opposed to broad cell that is more open to destructive interference, especially during the second half of the season in the EPAC (though it depends on ENSO/warm pool structure and it wasn’t the case last year).

 

I’d be nervous if I lived in HI this year, however. Nasty structural SSTA analogs showing up for them with the displacing of the +PMM west favoring that dome shape to the anomalies in ST divergence across the Pacific. The EPAC activity should trend westward with time, and it would not shock me if HI takes a direct hit this year. I almost expect it at this point.

Are they due for a nasty hurricane like a Cat5 impact?

[TT-SEA]

Are they due for a nasty hurricane like a Cat5 impact?

 

Due? 

 

Hard to say they are "due" for a Cat 5.

 

Hurricane Iniki in 1992 was a b*tch though.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There was a stationary Thunderstorm last night in West/Central Marion county which dropped nearly 2" of rain between Gervais and Woodburn. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 0.52" of rain yesterday. Up to 1.66" on the month. Still below normal, but not ridiculously so. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just 0.12" yesterday here. And only 0.34" for the month. Cooler temps are nice, but we really need rain.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is definitely cooler for the 4th... still nice but trending towards the ECMWF now.