July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently at 67F here, good chance we hit 70F. Not sure what the big deal is, feels like pretty typical PNW summer weather to me. The past few years were abnormal.

Yeah same here I don’t get how this is bad. Its been really nice for the most part. It’s not like it’s been raining everyday either it’s been average PNW summer weather.

[Front Ranger]

Euro is not nearly as troughy as the GFS. 

 

Would still likely produce a number of groan-inducing days for Tim, though.

[Phil]

Currently at 67F here, good chance we hit 70F. Not sure what the big deal is, feels like pretty typical PNW summer weather to me. The past few years were abnormal.

Yeah same here I don’t get how this is bad. Its been really nice for the most part. It’s not like it’s been raining everyday either it’s been average PNW summer weather.

This. I think recency bias following the 2013-18 blast furnace might have skewed people’s perspectives somewhat. Patterns don’t “lock in” like that very often.

 

After a dry/warm June, a cool/wet July of a similar magnitude is not surprising. Statistically speaking, you guys are “due” for a course correction towards more summer troughing (even if Mother Nature technically doesn’t work like that).

[Phil]

The 12z EPS is deliciously troughy after D10.

 

Would be awesome if it lasted through my trip. I haven’t experienced a PNW summer trough yet..a major item on my wx-weenie checklist.

[jcmcgaffey]

Looks pretty "nice" in Seattle.

 

Screenshot_2.png

weird here is what I just uploaded.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EPS is deliciously troughy after D10.

 

Would be awesome if it lasted through my trip. I haven’t experienced a PNW summer trough yet..a major item on my wx-weenie checklist.

That is not really troughy... 500mb heights are about normal.

[Phil]

That is not really troughy... 500mb heights are about normal.

That’s because variation amongst the ensemble members always “dampens” anomalies in the long range. You have to analyze the pattern structure.

 

This would be a cool pattern, if it verifies, regardless of the dampened anomalies.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

67 degrees as of 2pm.

[Requiem]

[seattleweatherguy]

Phil just curious, do you see the same cool damp pattern as cliff mass into aug

[Requiem]

Okay, fun game (but be nice of course). If each person on here had a specific “title”, what would they be?

[Front Ranger]

Phil just curious, do you see the same cool damp pattern as cliff mass into aug

Phil had July with warmer anomalies than June.

[Omegaraptor]

Phil had July with warmer anomalies than June.

Didn’t he at some point say that there would be a week or two of 2011-like weather at some point in July? Maybe this is it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still in the clouds in the S Valley. 69F and same temp inside as outside. Now let's have a 68-69-type winter event pls (not gonna happen since we had a 1 in 50 chance dump in Feb).

[Omegaraptor]

Still in the clouds in the S Valley. 69F and same temp inside as outside. Now let's have a 68-69-type winter event pls (not gonna happen since we had a 1 in 50 chance dump in Feb).

Nature doesn’t work that way. We’re not due anything. If we were, we would have had a cool summer a long time ago.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty funny... we are wine tasting in 85 degree sun but it now appears to be sunny at home per our cams. I am cursed! As everyone is aware.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Beautiful 78 and sunny here. Light breeze going. Just finished weeding and mowing the yard, sprinkler is going and just took some chicken and steak out for grilling later. Life is good.

[Omegaraptor]

Not a trace of blue sky here.

 

65 at PDX, 66 at HIO. Yeah, “summer” it is all right.

[Requiem]

Not a trace of blue sky here.

At least the temperature is manageable. The humidity here in Tokyo is insane.

[TacomaWaWx]

Still in the clouds in the S Valley. 69F and same temp inside as outside. Now let's have a 68-69-type winter event pls (not gonna happen since we had a 1 in 50 chance dump in Feb).

It would be the impressive to have back to back hard hitting snowy winters. So far this summer being cooler is a good sign but it still doesn’t mean we will get another snowstorm this upcoming winter. Some years it’s coorelated into good winters in western WA and OR and some years it just hasn’t materialized.

[TacomaWaWx]

At least the temperature is manageable. The humidity here in Tokyo is insane.

Have fun being in japan stay safe.

[TacomaWaWx]

Not a trace of blue sky here.

 

65 at PDX, 66 at HIO. Yeah, “summer” it is all right.

Sun has been on and off here currently mostly cloudy and 68. It’s really not all that uncommon for summers like this to happen. Wait until later in July or August I am pretty sure there’s going to be a heat spell at some point.

[Requiem]

[Front Ranger]

Didn’t he at some point say that there would be a week or two of 2011-like weather at some point in July? Maybe this is it.

 

Phil says a lot of things. Almost impossible to keep track. But he definitely had July warmer than June in the summer forecast thread.

[Guest CulverJosh]

[BLI snowman]

How about a windstorm? With all the weather wishing being done on here I thought I’d cast my coin into the well.........

 

PDX just had one of their strongest wind gusts on record for July last week.

[Omegaraptor]

Sun has been on and off here currently mostly cloudy and 68. It’s really not all that uncommon for summers like this to happen. Wait until later in July or August I am pretty sure there’s going to be a heat spell at some point.

Warm September this year? A cool July can often lead into a warm September. This happened in 2011 and 2012. 1993 was an extreme example.

[Timmy Supercell]

I find it interesting how some do not consider mid-low 80's to be "summer". Just speaking in general, throughout social media.

[TacomaWaWx]

Warm September this year? A cool July can often lead into a warm September. This happened in 2011 and 2012. 1993 was an extreme example.

Yeah maybe. Kind of like how there’s backloaded winters with all the winter weather happening in February there’s backloaded summers with cooler conditions in July and part of August leading to more heat in September. Could end up being one of those years.

[Timmy Supercell]

PDX just had one of their strongest wind gusts on record for July last week.

 

And what's that, 25mph? 

[TacomaWaWx]

And what's that, 25mph?

Thought it was in the mid 40s if I’m not mistaken with that good t-storm that rolled through on the 1st with the ef-0 tornado.

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah maybe. Kind of like how there’s backloaded winters with all the winter weather happening in February there’s backloaded summers with cooler conditions in July and part of August leading to more heat in September. Could end up being one of those years.

Now the real question - have the Februaries of the 2010s been unusually cold, or were the Februaries of the 2000s unusually warm?

 

Looking at Portland’s temperature history, February seems to have fluctuated quite a bit.

 

Looking at airport average high temps since the 1940s, the five months that haven’t clearly trended warmer are Feb, June, Oct, Nov, and Dec. Those months have just kind of fluctuated.

 

January average high jumped from 45.8°F in the 71-00 period to 47.0°F in the 81-10 period which is pretty sharp.

 

I can also use XM-ACIS to see 1990-2019 stats. February has dropped pretty hard in recent years. 50.6°F average which is well down from the 51.3°F in the 81-10 stats.

[Timmy Supercell]

Warm September this year? A cool July can often lead into a warm September. This happened in 2011 and 2012. 1993 was an extreme example.

 

If I remember right, 1995 happened like that too. Well probably not the whole month of Sep was warm that year, but it looked like some of the hottest summer temps at PDX occurred in Sep 1995.

[BLI snowman]

And what's that, 25mph? 

 

40!

[Jesse]

If you keep it up for a few more years you might actually convince someone to prefer the “correct” type of summer weather.

Someone’s got to match Tim’s rhetoric, which granted is less obvious to those who agree with it such as yourself.

[TacomaWaWx]

Now the real question - have the Februaries of the 2010s been unusually cold, or were the Februaries of the 2000s unusually warm?

 

Looking at Portland’s temperature history, February seems to have fluctuated quite a bit.

 

Looking at airport average high temps since the 1940s, the five months that haven’t clearly trended warmer are Feb, June, Oct, Nov, and Dec. Those months have just kind of fluctuated.

 

January average high jumped from 45.8°F in the 71-00 period to 47.0°F in the 81-10 period which is pretty sharp.

 

I can also use XM-ACIS to see 1990-2019 stats. February has dropped pretty hard in recent years. 50.6°F average which is well down from the 51.3°F in the 81-10 stats.

It’s hard for me to say as i don’t know Portland’s weather history as much as I know Seattle’s. I think it was more that the Februaries in the 00s were just warmer than normal to average. The Februaries in the 10s have had 5 cold ones, 2 average ones and 3 warmer ones. It’s hard for me to say though like I said I’m not 100% on statistics for Portland.

[TacomaWaWx]

Still only 68 degrees as of 4:15pm. Looks like we could eke out a 70 degree high still. Overall the first week of July has been fairly 2010/2011 like.

[Timmy Supercell]

A pleasant 80 degrees this hazy afternoon. Feels a wee bit better than 95 and being inside an 88 degree house all July.

[Omegaraptor]

High at PDX currently 67. 12°F below normal. Feels more like May than July.

[BLI snowman]

I haven't turned the AC off once yet this month.