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2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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"Where Legends Are Made"...this is the thought that popped into my mind this morning.  I think the Universe is trying to say something...sometimes we have to listen to our intuition and believe in our

Had the day off and decided to get out and enjoy the rainy day. Even tho it was mild here still, the overcast with on/off showers and breezes made it seem like the season. I guess the chilly morning w

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho/ Spokane, Washington, earliest accumulating measurable snow ever, over 100 years of records, 15 October 1930 1/2 inch of snow was recorded.

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Yep, the EURO weeklies from 3 weeks ago showed a warm/hot Sept. ......that looks to be on track. We caught some rain here in KC last night, not a bunch, but enough to water seed and sod. Been too warm here too and looks to be a hot week coming up.

 

LRC called for a cooler/wetter month of Sept...off to a total opposite pattern then that.

 

Please come fall!!

 

Chiefs....going to be hard to stop that offense. 40 points on the road against a top 5 defense.

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Looks like 384 more hours of continued summer here. :(

Same bud, same. Thankfully no brutal heat, but still flirting with multiple days of 90s. Good news is the lack of appreciable rain means we'll get good colors here once temps actually do decide to cool off (if they ever do).

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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While we get a taste of late summer warmth/humidity this week, parts of Russia will be experiencing their first snows of the season through this week....

 

gfs_asnow_asia_29.png

 

 

 

Let's see how close these maps come to verifying come October 1st.  So far, the CFS model has been right on schedule for an early build up of snow across both N Canada and Russia by the middle of Sept.

 

19100100_0900.gif

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The JMA monthlies came out yesterday and overall for the month of October, it has a prime looking SST pattern across the N PAC/Central PAC.  Compared to its previous run for October, the "ring of warmth" in the NE PAC has gotten warmer while the cooler SST' in the central PAC have held the same.  

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201909.D0300_gls.png

 

 

The 500mb pattern doesn't really jive with me on placement where troughs/ridges should be developing, nonetheless, it has a wet/normal outlook for October. 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201909.D0300_gl0.png

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201909.D0300_gl2.png

 

 

 

For November....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201909.D0300_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps...Indian Summer???  A warmer November has always been on my mind.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201909.D0300_gl2.png

 

 

December....First taste of Winter???

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201909.D0300_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201909.D0300_gl2.png

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The JMA monthlies came out yesterday and overall for the month of October, it has a prime looking SST pattern across the N PAC/Central PAC. Compared to its previous run for October, the "ring of warmth" in the NE PAC has gotten warmer while the cooler SST' in the central PAC have held the same.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201909.D0300_gls.png

 

 

The 500mb pattern doesn't really jive with me on placement where troughs/ridges should be developing, nonetheless, it has a wet/normal outlook for October.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201909.D0300_gl0.png

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201909.D0300_gl2.png

 

 

 

For November....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201909.D0300_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps...Indian Summer??? A warmer November has always been on my mind.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201909.D0300_gl2.png

 

 

December....First taste of Winter???

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201909.D0300_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201909.D0300_gl2.png

Wow. Forcing is shunted way west. So far west that it is absolutely destructive to any positives that the NPAC can provide at my location. That's as far west as I have ever seen it in any model. Ever. I'm at a loss for what needs to improve, but it's not looking good here.

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Hmmm, the JAMSTEC seasonal has come in and is suggesting a warmer ENSO situation across the equatorial PAC (weak Nino).

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1sep2019.gif

 

 

Autumn temps/precip...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2019.1sep2019.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2019.1sep2019.gif

 

 

Winter temps/precip...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2020.1sep2019.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2020.1sep2019.gif

 

 

 

SST's through the Autumn & Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2019.1sep2019.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2020.1sep2019.gif

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Hmmm, the JAMSTEC seasonal has come in and is suggesting a warmer ENSO situation across the equatorial PAC (weak Nino).

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1sep2019.gif

 

 

Autumn temps/precip...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2019.1sep2019.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2019.1sep2019.gif

 

 

Winter temps/precip...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2020.1sep2019.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2020.1sep2019.gif

 

 

 

SST's through the Autumn & Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2019.1sep2019.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2020.1sep2019.gif

 

Flies in the face of JB's temp departures doesn't it? I'd actually take what it's offering as verbatim, it seems to be what we thought we were getting last winter. Gotta love models, eh? 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The first Eurasian Snows of the season are falling and will continue to fall over the next month.  The CFS nailed this forecast quite some time ago.  Gotta give it some love as it saw mid-Sept snowfall a few months ago and never backed down.

 

 

 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

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The first Eurasian Snows of the season are falling and will continue to fall over the next month.  The CFS nailed this forecast quite some time ago.  Gotta give it some love as it saw mid-Sept snowfall a few months ago and never backed down.

 

 

 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Very impressive honestly. Per that map it almost looks like the Northwest Passage did indeed open up this lat summer for shipping? Did anyone try to get through? How "ice covered" (by %?) does the water need to be to show as yellow on this map? Just thinking about this, that's all. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Very impressive honestly. Per that map it almost looks like the Northwest Passage did indeed open up this lat summer for shipping? Did anyone try to get through? How "ice covered" (by %?) does the water need to be to show as yellow on this map? Just thinking about this, that's all.

Good question. I’m not sure if there has to be any specific level of thickness. It’s prob just a satellite sensor that indicates ice/snow coverage.

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Very impressive honestly. Per that map it almost looks like the Northwest Passage did indeed open up this lat summer for shipping? Did anyone try to get through? How "ice covered" (by %?) does the water need to be to show as yellow on this map? Just thinking about this, that's all.

My research tells me that the NWP is that part right near the coast of Canada. My thoughts are that it isn't always open, but has been yearly since 2009, according to wikipedia.

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The ECMWF Seasonal is showing an interesting look mid/late Autumn which indicates a SW Flow along with a SER being present.  I'm not sure if I believe this at the moment, but something to consider. I also will say this model is a little to "warm" biased, wouldn't ya say so??  Sheesh, the probability the entire globe to be AN temp wise???  Come on now...

 

 

ps2png-gorax-green-006-6fe5cac1a363ec152

 

ps2png-gorax-green-006-6fe5cac1a363ec152

 

 

 

Winter...

 

ps2png-gorax-green-008-6fe5cac1a363ec152

 

ps2png-gorax-green-005-6fe5cac1a363ec152

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The models are at odds with what is currently taking shape across the central PAC SST's.  For instance, ENSO 1.2 & 3.4 are forecast to rise (CFSv2 maps below) off the current lows but surprisingly they are dropping right now.

 

 

 

nino12Mon.gif

 

nino34Mon.gif

 

 

If you look at the subsurface anomalies, there is a deeper pocket of colder waters in the E PAC that is building and lurking....

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

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The models are at odds with what is currently taking shape across the central PAC SST's.  For instance, ENSO 1.2 & 3.4 are forecast to rise (CFSv2 maps below) off the current lows but surprisingly they are dropping right now.

 

 

 

nino12Mon.gif

 

nino34Mon.gif

 

 

If you look at the subsurface anomalies, there is a deeper pocket of colder waters in the E PAC that is building and lurking....

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Yeah, the further they drop, the more cushion against any Nino outcome. Say, what's the lead time again for the ENSO to our winter impacts/outcome? I.e. when are the SST's the most important for our DJFM? It's a month or 2 prior to winter, correct? 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yeah, the further they drop, the more cushion against any Nino outcome. Say, what's the lead time again for the ENSO to our winter impacts/outcome? I.e. when are the SST's the most important for our DJFM? It's a month or 2 prior to winter, correct? 

I find it a crucial period during the Oct/Nov months when the LRC develops and the new cyclical pattern takes shape.  With that being said, October is knocking on our doorstep and there may be a big bust coming in the modeling world.

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Took a gander at WxBell's Winter Outlook and they are anticipating a fast start to winter across the Plains and possibly into the Rockies.  Early season ridging in the East may delay winter for those out on the EC as a SER may be in the cards like last year.  I agree with them on the potential for severe cold this year which should be more widespread across the CONUS east of the Rockies.  Someone is going to have a banner year and I'm anxious to get this party started. 

 

The new cyclical pattern is only a few weeks away and I'm excited to see how this plays out from Oct-Nov.  Is @TOL-Weather snow magnet going to work this year???  WxBell thinks so.

 

 

 

 

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The Euro Seasonal certainly has an intriguing look with a stout NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge, SER, which creates a central CONUS trough...doesn't that look a bit similar to last year's pattern???  Let's say we take into account the Euro models usual bias of parking troughs in the west and holding it there.  Imagine shifting that trough farther east to allow for more suppression which will prob happen more often than not this cold season compared to last year.  In essence, this would provide a more favorable pattern for many of us to be in the "game" this winter and allow for some SE ridging at times.  

 

EEaoPiIUEAEgqae.jpg

 

 

 

Here is a map which is a "super blend" of 264 members which includes the ECMWF, UKMET, Météo-France, DWD (German), and CMCC (Italian-Mediterranean) models.

 

 

 

Again, what seems to be a common feature among the seasonal models is the strong signal for a NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge which will supply the cold this winter and SER component.  Hands down, this is one of the more important signals for a good, or Great, Winter across our Sub bc without the cold, nobody will see the snows.  Without the storm track, nobody see's repetitive snows....who wants to see brown grass???  However, if the models are right, the concern for those of us that may have to battle the SER is the lack of any Greenland Blocking.  As always, blocking will be the wild card as we head deeper into the cold months.  Should be another wild and ferocious winter for our Sub.  I have no doubts about this but the question remains, who, in our Sub, will be near the jack zone???

 

 

EEdMN6FUUAAZBzI.jpg

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Taken verbatim, I'm screwed. I don't think it plays out like that(maps) but if it did, yup, winter #5 in a row down the crapper.

 

Problem with that model is it is not seeing the modoki factor that the pac is favoring in terms of contrast from enso 1 through enso 4. I'd not put it in stone at all.

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Of course, as I wrote that I didn't realize that all of enso tanked in 3 days time. Blegh....

 

The precedent for the current sst pattern with positive PDO, negative ENSO and positive but descending QBO (hasn't propagated negative all the way to lower levels) is hard to come by. I'm really drawing straws, honestly.

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I may as well find a hobby. Winter will be unexceptional here. Could mail it in.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Took a gander at WxBell's Winter Outlook and they are anticipating a fast start to winter across the Plains and possibly into the Rockies.  Early season ridging in the East may delay winter for those out on the EC as a SER may be in the cards like last year.  I agree with them on the potential for severe cold this year which should be more widespread across the CONUS east of the Rockies.  Someone is going to have a banner year and I'm anxious to get this party started. 

 

The new cyclical pattern is only a few weeks away and I'm excited to see how this plays out from Oct-Nov.  Is @TOL-Weather snow magnet going to work this year???  WxBell thinks so.

 

Snow map is missing the small blob of 200% over SCMI, other than that, I couldn't draw up better maps for my area  :lol:

 

 

K, a few serious comments now that I got that one outta the way. 

 

Having been just S/SE of the decent snows last winter, it wouldn't surprise me to see the jack-zone shift E/SE of me this winter. But going with an OHIO, yes OHIO jackpot is like calling for someone to win the Powerball Jackpot. Idk 'bout that, it's awfully risky to say the least. 

 

Needless to say, that's about the snow map I'd expect based on the temps map you had already posted before. 

 

Ofc, JB's fallible and busted hard like most of us with last winter's call. He keeps getting on his horse again tho to give it another go. I'd be a happy camper if his early call does better this go-around. 

 

Did he have any video or written text discussing his rationale? 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Snow map is missing the small blob of 200% over SCMI, other than that, I couldn't draw up better maps for my area  :lol:

 

 

K, a few serious comments now that I got that one outta the way. 

 

Having been just S/SE of the decent snows last winter, it wouldn't surprise me to see the jack-zone shift E/SE of me this winter. But going with an OHIO, yes OHIO jackpot is like calling for someone to win the Powerball Jackpot. Idk 'bout that, it's awfully risky to say the least. 

 

Needless to say, that's about the snow map I'd expect based on the temps map you had already posted before. 

 

Ofc, JB's fallible and busted hard like most of us with last winter's call. He keeps getting on his horse again tho to give it another go. I'd be a happy camper if his early call does better this go-around. 

 

Did he have any video or written text discussing his rationale? 

https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast

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Taken verbatim, I'm screwed. I don't think it plays out like that(maps) but if it did, yup, winter #5 in a row down the crapper.

 

Problem with that model is it is not seeing the modoki factor that the pac is favoring in terms of contrast from enso 1 through enso 4. I'd not put it in stone at all.

 

I may as well find a hobby. Winter will be unexceptional here. Could mail it in.

 

I wouldn't lose all hope based on a few early maps/model outputs. As we saw just last winter, the atmosphere will have the "final answer" and anything is possible. All forecasts/models/maps etc last autumn, right up thru late November looked like "a lock" for the traditional weak Nino outcome. Then look what happened. It all literally flipped, lol 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I wouldn't lose all hope based on a few early maps/model outputs. As we saw just last winter, the atmosphere will have the "final answer" and anything is possible. All forecasts/models/maps etc last autumn, right up thru late November looked like "a lock" for the traditional weak Nino outcome. Then look what happened. It all literally flipped, lol 

You betcha....how about that disgusting December we experienced. No Snow at ALL!!!!! Mind you, there was not even cold air around at all. Complete nightmare. :rolleyes:

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You know, it sorta dawned upon me after listening to JB about how much imbalance the oceans are when comparing it to the N PAC and the central/southern PAC.  Will this imbalance cause a real active STJ this coming Winter???  Storms love to clash with warm/cool oceans and boy is there a clash per map below.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Can we then believe the blend of the ECMWF + UKMET for an extremely wet winter for the CONUS as a whole??? It's hard to discount the top tier of global models suggesting a very active winter.  One thing that stands out is the extremely wet SE which in all likelihood is due to the SER the models are seeing and copious amounts of rain....possible storm track...App/GL's cutters???  I'm really getting curious to see how the LRC sets up next month and into November. 

 

 

 

 

 

EEgC-07UcAMtX5h.jpg

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You know, it sorta dawned upon me after listening to JB about how much imbalance the oceans are when comparing it to the N PAC and the central/southern PAC.  Will this imbalance cause a real active STJ this coming Winter???  Storms love to clash with warm/cool oceans and boy is there a clash per map below.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Can we then believe the blend of the ECMWF + UKMET for an extremely wet winter for the CONUS as a whole??? It's hard to discount the top tier of global models suggesting a very active winter.  One thing that stands out is the extremely wet SE which in all likelihood is due to the SER the models are seeing and copious amounts of rain....possible storm track...App/GL's cutters???  I'm really getting curious to see how the LRC sets up next month and into November. 

 

 

 

 

 

EEgC-07UcAMtX5h.jpg

 

WxBell's analogs place the moisture max a bit north of this map. More so across KY/TN/WV which would be even better for Lwr Lakes snow chances. I guess they're not that far apart really, considering we're talking months from now.  A moist SE is a good thing so long as the mean storm track is further north. Only time will tell ofc

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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When I think about it, 07-08 was a lot like this set-up, just a warm version of 13-14. Very similar in storm tracks and frequency of events. We across SMI discussed how deep the snow would've stacked that season were it not for all the torching in between systems. I like to say "give me a good track and the cold will fill-in behind it".  

 

Regardless (warmer or colder outcome) if we get a favorable storm track through the OHV, all will be good. JB even mentions that the undiluted analogs are much colder than his combined map and that kind of extreme is not off the table. IF his snow map were to be a "good guess", it would have to be reminiscent of some wild OHV winters of lore such as 1917-18 and 77-78. At least it looks that way imho. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I think the difference is hedging their bet!

 

Okla and Tx look like our usual.

Cold sometimes

Cool sometimes

Possible shorts for Christmas, maybe not

Sometimes wet

Sometimes dry

Otherwise average winter conditions.

 

Yeah,....they're hedging.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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5d7e9f4b20dea.image.jpg?resize=600%2C398

 

I wish I knew what the difference is between "Cold Wintry Mix", "Frozen Snowy","Frigid & Snowy" and "Frosty Wet & White?" :lol:   Pathetic Forecast Outlook :rolleyes:

 

I will tell you the way I read it. You don't want to see the words "wet" or "mix" or "average". You do want to see "snow" and/or "snowy". 

 

At least per these guy's map, we're lookin good partner.  :lol:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I think the difference is hedging their bet!

 

Okla and Tx look like our usual.

Cold sometimes

Cool sometimes

Possible shorts for Christmas, maybe not

Sometimes wet

Sometimes dry

Otherwise average winter conditions.

 

Yeah,....they're hedging.

:lol: Nailed it! I love the breakdown.

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You know, it sorta dawned upon me after listening to JB about how much imbalance the oceans are when comparing it to the N PAC and the central/southern PAC. Will this imbalance cause a real active STJ this coming Winter??? Storms love to clash with warm/cool oceans and boy is there a clash per map below.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Can we then believe the blend of the ECMWF + UKMET for an extremely wet winter for the CONUS as a whole??? It's hard to discount the top tier of global models suggesting a very active winter. One thing that stands out is the extremely wet SE which in all likelihood is due to the SER the models are seeing and copious amounts of rain....possible storm track...App/GL's cutters??? I'm really getting curious to see how the LRC sets up next month and into November.

 

 

 

 

 

EEgC-07UcAMtX5h.jpg

I could possibly win if this scenario were to verify. That's a lot of moisture spread out. With moisture, technically, in winter usually comes warmth. Want to be on that NW side, and in those, I am.

 

Need to see those waters cool off west of Mexico. That is what troubles me. We lost contrast there and it's been warm and dry ever since. It seems to be magnified in winter unless the Gulf supplies the moisture. May be the case in that map.

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I will tell you the way I read it. You don't want to see the words "wet" or "mix" or "average". You do want to see "snow" and/or "snowy". 

 

At least per these guy's map, we're lookin good partner.  :lol:

I agree... we are looking golden :lol:

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Speaking strictly for Texas...........Stinks.

 

We'll break out the shorts and light weight hoodies for winter.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Some interesting looking snow anomaly maps off the Euro seasonal...

 

October...early CO snows and hints of snow near the GL's...

 

ec_oct_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

 

 

 

Nov...Rockies off to a fast start....

 

ec_nov_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

Dec...to remember???

 

ec_dec_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

 

Jan...

 

ec_jan_snow.png?format=1000w

 

Feb...

 

ec_feb_snow.png?format=1000w

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Some interesting looking snow anomaly maps off the Euro seasonal...

 

October...early CO snows and hints of snow near the GL's...

 

ec_oct_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

 

 

 

Nov...Rockies off to a fast start....

 

ec_nov_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

Dec...to remember???

 

ec_dec_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

 

Jan...

 

ec_jan_snow.png?format=1000w

 

Feb...

 

ec_feb_snow.png?format=1000w

 

LOL for the Mitt. Euro says winter tries to get going...in Feb. IRI temps map(s) are not that far away from WxBell's early call tho. Something to consider. BAMwx's map looks more promising as well (very 2013-14 look) but it's all dependent on the SST's holding steady. Thx for posting these!  

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Some interesting looking snow anomaly maps off the Euro seasonal...

 

October...early CO snows and hints of snow near the GL's...

 

ec_oct_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

 

 

 

Nov...Rockies off to a fast start....

 

ec_nov_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

Dec...to remember???

 

ec_dec_snow.png?format=1000w

 

 

 

Jan...

 

ec_jan_snow.png?format=1000w

 

Feb...

 

ec_feb_snow.png?format=1000w

I sure like the look of these for the Central Plains through January.  Would make you think that there will be lows coming out of the Southwest US.  That starts to get me excited as those can turn into potential bowling ball CO lows or sometimes cutters, though I know that doesn't always help those to the east and occasionally those cut west of here.  Could be some fun times ahead.

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Some interesting looking snow anomaly maps off the Euro seasonal...

Please for the love of God let every single one of those maps (except October) be wrong. I have a strong dislike for back-heavy Winters because it's harder to keep a snowpack in February than November or December due to sun angle

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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