October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

GRR's headline:

 

Major Weather Changes Are Coming

 

Sunshine and 73F today without an ounce of humidity or hot sun angle. I don't think I could wish this away, even for the epic temp drops out west. This time of year the ground is warm too, unlike in spring when it can be half frozen. The atmosphere today was about as perfect as it gets for doing whatever you wanted. I spent mine enjoying some PTO and getting a project accomplished. 

[jaster220]

Local met just showed above normal temps 18th-24th. We'll see!

 

Sign of a great cold pattern is when those AN temp calls at d7+ continually fail. I'm with you. Let's see how it plays out. 

[Niko]

Crystal clear night w temps in the 50s. Bottoming in the 40s tanite

[OKwx2k4]

Cold front has come and gone by. Here we go!

Down down down.

[Niko]

Cold front has come and gone by. Here we go!

Down down down.

current.TAIR.grad (4).png

Its cominggggggggg

[Tom]

Sign of a great cold pattern is when those AN temp calls at d7+ continually fail. I'm with you. Let's see how it plays out. 

Yup, what I will look for instead will be transient warmth instead of a ridge that hits and holds....let's see what happens but I'm banking on a 2-3 or 4 day warm-up and then back to BN temps to close out the month.  Depends on how much the storm on deck (18th-21st) cuts hard NW or not as much.

[Stormhunter87]

And now the heat is turned on.

[Tom]

And now the heat is turned on.

Gotta keep the kiddos warm!  I'll likely be turning it on Sat am as well....

[Clinton]

1.40  inches of rain today and now temps are crashing.  Its gonna be an exciting winter!

[Stormhunter87]

Gotta keep the kiddos warm! I'll likely be turning it on Sat am as well....

For sure. Daughter woke up because of it lol

[Madtown]

ready to get the woodstove kickin tomorrow!

[Niko]

My forecast has a couple of nights coming up being in the 30s. Some nippy nights ahead. Saturday will be very blustery once the front rolls on through w highs remaining in the 40s and dropping throughout the day. Overnight will feature mid 30s w a wcf in progress as well. I don't think frost or freeze advisories will be issued due to wind.

[Stormy]

The cold front finally moved through around 15 minutes ago.

[Minny_Weather]

Still getting the usual pre-front warmness. Not expecting it to arrive here until tonight. Will likely make it well into the 70s. 61.4°F.

[Niko]

Currently clear skies and temps at 54F. Absolutely splendid. Front will be arriving later tanite w rain developing as well. Temps will be falling rapidly.

[Clinton]

Freeze Warning in effect for tonight, expecting a low of 30.

[Tom]

Models have been trending colder around here for tomorrow morning and as a result temps are forecast to be near freezing.  A few days ago this was not in the forecast.  This may be a trend going forward.  The crazy thing about this is, last year at this same exact periood (11th-12th), across N IL there was a Freeze Warning issued and Frost Advisories for Lake/Cook counties.  Crazy Coincidence.  Same goes for all the First Freeze's of the season across the Plains/MW region.

 

 

 

[Andie]

Big change finally down south, Boys!

 

DFW is enjoying 46* this morning and a strong thunderstorm rumbling just west of me this morning.

 

Heavy thunderstorms last night, extremely heavy lightning.

We lost power for almost 3 hours.

 

High of 64* today. Wow, nice change.

[james1976]

I see there is a 'Hard Freeze Warning' for OK & TX panhandles. Is this something new?

[jaster220]

Some pretty heavy showers moving thru attm. Clouds and rain may keep temps lower than the expected 72F high. Could've used one last day of warm and dry for another project. Oh well, I'll figure something out or put it off til tomorrow. 

[jaster220]

I see there is a 'Hard Freeze Warning' for OK & TX panhandles. Is this something new?

 

If you meant is the use of that headline new? No it isn't. Not sure exactly when it began but I've noticed it for several seasons now. 

 

If you meant that the region wasn't under that headline last night, then perhaps it's an expansion of the coverage. There were some counties under it on last night's map fwiw. 

[Andie]

I see there is a 'Hard Freeze Warning' for OK & TX panhandles. Is this something new?

Wouldn't surprise me. DFW is at 44* this morning as the front continues to move through.

 

The northern Panhandle is a climate unto itself from the rest of Texas. Closer to southern Colorado.

[westMJim]

As I have stated before the site, I go to for much of my historical information is now down and at this time I am not sure for how long. However, at a different site (not as much nor as good of information) I did find this bit of useful information. So far this year (January to September) the mean at Grand Rapids is 51.7° the 30 year average is 52.2° for a departure of -0.5° At Detroit the mean this year is 53.6 the 30 year average is 53.4 for a difference of +0.2° down at Toledo the mean so far this year is 55.1° 30 year average is 53.4 for a difference of +1.3° and at Chicago the mean is 53.1 and the average is 53.2° for a difference of -0.1° So Toledo is the warmest to average so far this year.

[CentralNebWeather]

Have seen reports through 7:30 AM with a low of 22 degrees. My apps have shown 24 or 25 being the low.  Either way, a hard freeze as the growing season has ended.  Hopefully flies and mosquitoes have gone to their final resting place.  Talking to a guy this morning thinking that we're going to have a lot of green leaves fall to the ground next week.  Not much color around here which is strange for Oct. 11th.  

[Madtown]

temps dropping, down to 45 here

[OKwx2k4]

I'd say the headline was warranted. That's a 12 up there. Cold. Very cold.

Current temps...

[Tom]

I'd say the headline was warranted. That's a 12 up there. Cold. Very cold. today.TAIR.min.grad (1).png

Current temps...

current.TAIR.grad (5).png

Geeze. This airmass seems colder than last October’s early cold spell. I’m seeing many parallels to last year in terms of cold and active storm track, although, this year the track is looking different though.

[Tom]

Denver had their earliest single digit temp ever recorded this early in the season. Wow. That says something about this airmass.

[james1976]

If you meant is the use of that headline new? No it isn't. Not sure exactly when it began but I've noticed it for several seasons now.

 

If you meant that the region wasn't under that headline last night, then perhaps it's an expansion of the coverage. There were some counties under it on last night's map fwiw.

Oops yeah I was wondering if the use of that headline was new. I don't recall seeing it before.

[james1976]

Ppl

I'd say the headline was warranted. That's a 12 up there. Cold. Very cold. today.TAIR.min.grad (1).png

Current temps...

current.TAIR.grad (5).png

12?! That's crazy for down there! Is it a record?

[Grizzcoat]

Agree on the 12F in Okie. Incredible.

[OKwx2k4]

12?! That's crazy for down there! Is it a record?

I'm not really sure. I never did know how to access the daily broken records for the whole US like others can find on here, but my assumption is that it is.

 

Hopefully someone can help out and/or provide a link. I do know that's about 32°F below their average low of 44°F for October.

[Minny_Weather]

Getting some very spotty showers here ahead of the front. With forcing, I think we'll rise in temperature despite the cloudiness. There's going to be a break it looks like. Getting spotty showers now then a break before the front arrives (currently still in Chicagoland I believe). 64.2*F.

[Grizzcoat]

If someone gives me the town name that got to 12F in Okie, I will look it up when time permits.

[hlcater]

If someone gives me the town name that got to 12F in Okie, I will look it up when time permits.

 

Kenton, OK. Though you might have better luck searching history for Boise City, OK which reached 15 degrees.

[Grizzcoat]

Oh phone so this is a little cumbersome but Clayton,NM was 23F at midnight and broke a record with that for yesterday . 19F this AM which broke record of 25F. Data back at least to 1917. Earliest they have been under 20F.

 

I will work on Kenton or Boise City when I get to desktop.

[Hawkeye]

I'm wondering just how cold it will get around here, tonight.  The NAM, which I think has a cool bias, has 29º.   The GFS has 30º.  The HRRR has 32º.  The euro has 34º.  The NWS forecast is about 30º.  I grow a lot of freeze-intolerant plants, so every degree counts.

[Niko]

Clouds have increased and temps are in the 60s. Rain on the way.

[Niko]

Its going to get quite chilly on the weekend. WCF's might be in play. Lows in the 30s w wind makes it likely.

[OKwx2k4]

Saw lows as low as 26 and as high as 30 tonight. If the winds lay down around dark, the lower end of the scale seems possible.

 

Upgrade from a freeze watch this A.M. to a warning this afternoon seems to have my answer. Kill my grass so I can shave it down for all the snow I'm going to get this winter.

 

"...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

 

* WHERE...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

 

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday.

 

* IMPACTS...These conditions will kill plants and other tender

vegetation that are left outdoors or unprotected.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Outdoor water pipes should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to run

in a slow steady stream. Precautions should also be taken to

protect small plants and tender vegetation."