October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Good write-up from NWS on the storm for Lake/West Mich.

 

https://www.weather.gov/grr/20191016_WavesAndWind

That erosion is going to be rough on both sides of LM this season but moreso into Michigan/IN. To lose 10-12 feet of sandy shoreline from one event is wild.

[jaster220]

That erosion is going to be rough on both sides of LM this season but moreso into Michigan/IN. To lose 10-12 feet of sandy shoreline from one event is wild.

 

Near the end of that article, it mentions that numerous homes have erosion perilously close to their foundations. I can't imagine we've seen the worst of storminess this season wants to dish out, so not looking good for those folks. This is one time I'm not envious of the lakefront property owners.  

[Tom]

@ OKWx is going to like the 12z GFS run today...there's that system you've been looking for to drop into the "slot" and turn up the OHV/Apps...

 

 

[jaster220]

@ OKWx is going to like the 12z GFS run today...there's that system you've been looking for to drop into the "slot" and turn up the OHV/Apps...

 

Ninja'd by min's! 

 

 

 

Now THIS is more like it amigo! 

[jaster220]

NMI les belts may well be looking at a white Halloween

 

[bud2380]

this was the storm Tom mentioned dropping snow in parts of the midwest on the 24th and 25th on the 00z Euro.

 

[Niko]

Ninja'd by min's! 

 

20191018 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh150-204.gif

 

 

Now THIS is more like it amigo! 

This is the jackpot track. If we can get this.......look-out!

[Niko]

Gorgeous outside w abundant sunshine and temps have rebounded nicely into the low 50s.

[jaster220]

This is the jackpot track. If we can get this.......look-out!

 

Yep, THE track that's been MIA for the past (3) winters. It's just a model-land flash at this point, but it gives one a better vibe than just watching continual Plains and Coastals bombs

[St Paul Storm]

Euro storm cancel. 12z has nada through the entire run.

 

Meanwhile windy day here with temps approaching the upper 60s.

[jaster220]

Euro storm cancel. 12z has nada through the entire run.

 

Meanwhile windy day here with temps approaching the upper 60s.

 

Yeah, it was a no-show on the 12z GFS but I didn't mention it just in case

[hlcater]

Would not be at all surprised to see many areas have a shot at their first flakes of the season to close out October. Ensembles are hinting at an unseasonably cold airmass taking hold in the D7-15 timeframe.

[Niko]

Another cold night tanite w readings falling into the 30s under clear skies.

[jaster220]

Another cold night tanite w readings falling into the 30s under clear skies.

 

6 of the past 7 days have averaged below normal at KBTL. Normal for today was 60/39F btw

[Niko]

6 of the past 7 days have averaged below normal at KBTL. Normal for today was 60/39F btw

Yep, same here. Running below normal. After the brief warm up happens this weekend and into early next week, it starts cooling off and substantially, especially towards the end of the month.

[jaster220]

Yep, same here. Running below normal. After the brief warm up happens this weekend and into early next week, it starts cooling off and substantially, especially towards the end of the month.

 

Next 3 daytime highs will be modestly AN, then by Tues it's BN again. Be interesting to see just how amped this next Plains storm actually gets as it moves up into Canada. At longer ranges Euro had it bombing into crazy territory. Things have since come back to reality, but today's GFS still had it getting down around 980 mb and a fair amount of snow hitting up there which will translate into a pretty windy period across the Mitt. After weeks and weeks of virtually nothing here due to my mini zonal drought, I'm loving all the potential action looming. 

[Niko]

Next 3 daytime highs will be modestly AN, then by Tues it's BN again. Be interesting to see just how amped this next Plains storm actually gets as it moves up into Canada. At longer ranges Euro had it bombing into crazy territory. Things have since come back to reality, but today's GFS still had it getting down around 980 mb and a fair amount of snow hitting up there which will translate into a pretty windy period across the Mitt. After weeks and weeks of virtually nothing here due to my mini zonal drought, I'm loving all the potential action looming. 

It will pay off amigo in the long run.

[Niko]

Currently at 39F under partly cloudy skies.

[jaster220]

That erosion is going to be rough on both sides of LM this season but moreso into Michigan/IN. To lose 10-12 feet of sandy shoreline from one event is wild.

 

Near the end of that article, it mentions that numerous homes have erosion perilously close to their foundations. I can't imagine we've seen the worst of storminess this season wants to dish out, so not looking good for those folks. This is one time I'm not envious of the lakefront property owners.  

 

Sounds like it may have been even worse. More on the order of 15-20 feet! 

 

https://www.woodtv.com/news/ottawa-county/owners-wait-for-state-ok-as-home-dangles-near-dune-edge/

[OKwx2k4]

@ OKWx is going to like the 12z GFS run today...there's that system you've been looking for to drop into the "slot" and turn up the OHV/Apps...

Man! This year is like a dream.

 

What else could I possibly ask for? You've hit every mark in the checklist today.

 

I'm so excited for our forum and very happy to see so many others getting pumped up for the upcoming season. Been a long time coming for a good section of us. Heck, it seems like all I have to do is write what I want and "poof!", there it is.

[jaster220]

09:27 am EDT - 10/16/2019 2 W GRAND HAVEN, MI Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 55 MPH

 

I may sneak over to the lakeshore later

 

 

Now I'm sad I couldn't make it over there Wed, but this vid shows I was hardly the only one with the idea

 

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/wind-waves-draw-crowd-to-south-haven-beach/

[Grizzcoat]

GFS has snow for NE and Kansas  and MO at day 9-10- -(actually for many on this sub)

[jaster220]

GFS has snow for NE and Kansas  and MO at day 9-10-

 

Was just gonna say..

 

[jaster220]

Out to h252 on TT and delivering first snowstorm of 2019-20 season here! Hahaha..wouldn't bet my old shoe laces on that verifying. Tho I'd buy everyone a round of brewski if it does! 

[Niko]

Out to h252 on TT and delivering first snowstorm of 2019-20 season here! Hahaha..wouldn't bet my old shoe laces on that verifying. Tho I'd buy everyone a round of brewski if it does! 

[Niko]

OKwk2k4- So far, looking good for this upcoming Winter.

[Niko]

Sparky-go and see that vid Jaster posted on "Autumn/Winter discussions" You will like it. I promise!

[OKwx2k4]

I may eat my hat. Lol. This is new.

[Tom]

Now I'm sad I couldn't make it over there Wed, but this vid shows I was hardly the only one with the idea

 

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/wind-waves-draw-crowd-to-south-haven-beach/

That's one angry looking lake!  Can you imagine what the sights and scenes will look like when the "Gales of November" hit next month and during the Winter???

[Tom]

Where do I begin???   Ummm, ya, how about that Greenland Block???  Holy smokes...it has been the missing link, of which I think, all the models took a big "drink" (tryin' hard to lay down a rhyme).  What I think is about to happen is an atmospheric wonder in the extended.  Truly, if you take a step back and look at the big picture, what has happened this month and what is forecast over the next 2 weeks paints a spectacular picture for a winter wx enthusiast and cold weather fan.

 

As the LRC continues to develop, what is absolutely wonderful about this pattern is if you look closely at how its evolving, the main axis anchor trough is smack dab in the middle of the nation so far this month with oscillating ridges off both coasts of the U.S.  This, my friends, is a lock to keep the axis of the mean storm track across our Sub for at least the first 4 weeks of the new LRC.  Now, what happens in the 1st half of November is a different story of course, but for now, I like what I have seen thus far and where this is going.

 

The animation off the 00z GEFS last night just show a pretty picture of rotating lobes of energy right over the central CONUS...#CentralCONUSShow

 

 

 

[Niko]

Another frost this morning. Everything outside is white. Temps fell to 32F. Skies are deep blue w ton of sun. Temp has risen to 35F attm.

[Niko]

I may eat my hat. Lol. This is new.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

Jaster will be happy w this one I bet. Snow approaching his neck of the woods.

[Niko]

Lets not forget about Nestor down in the GOM. He will eventually head on out into the Atlantic after exiting the Carolina's. He is not expected to gain hurricane strength. Current at 50mph TS system.

[Minny_Weather]

Another morning with a THICK layer of Frost. Temp already rapidly rising. 37.9°F.

[jaster220]

Jaster will be happy w this one I bet. Snow approaching his neck of the woods.

 

Great to see ofc, but SPS (and others) just had a cyber-storm at closer range pull the old vanishing act. Not to mention we have a ton of trees with leafs yet so any heavy wet snow is prolly a tree-trasher at that point. Lets see what happens..

[OKwx2k4]

Incredible GFS runs showing up for down here. All I can really say at this point. As we get closer to actuality on these things I may discuss them a bit more, but if one wanted to know where the "snow trail" is pointing right now, it's right at my doorstep.

Its october. Holy crap.

[Andie]

79* heading toward 84* today and 89* tomorrow. Clear, sunny.

.....yawn.....

[Andie]

Incredible GFS runs showing up for down here. All I can really say at this point. As we get closer to actuality on these things I may discuss them a bit more, but if one wanted to know where the "snow trail" is pointing right now, it's right at my doorstep.

Its october. Holy crap.

I'll settle for rain, Okwx!

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice.

[OKwx2k4]

Anxious to see the model adjustments after this tropical storm clears out. Models sometime have issues when there is an increase in tropical activity for some reason. Either way, looks like someone in our region is going to get some snow in the next couple of weeks.