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1/13/13:

 

***CFS***

 

Day 15-20:

 

 

Day 17.5-22.5:

 

 

Day 20-25:

 

 

February:

 

 

 

***Euro EPS weeklies***

 

The Euro EPS weeklies show the Western death ridge getting shoved NW-ward towards the GoA after day 10.  From day 11-15 it takes its resident November position (hugging the NW B.C. coast).  By day 16 the ridge continues its NNW migration into the Arctic.  At that time the NW is shown to have normal 500 mb heights.  At day 19 (February 1st) it shows the persistent Eastern trough expanding westward and by day 24 (February 5th)...it shows the West firmly under negative height anomalies and cold 850 mb temperatures (similar to the CFS).

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Good thing is the West will become susceptible to lows after that ridge disintegrates...

 

 

In fact, the Gfs model is picking up a STJ dropping moisture into California. Look at the lower left. Jet streaks + instability coming in.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/01/14/00/GFS_3_2014011400_F384_WSPD_500_MB.png

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CFS backs off the cold around mid month in Feb for a lot of the nation but then reloads the cold towards the last week of February.  It's the winter that keeps on giving for some of us in the Midwest/GL Region.  I do believe the Plains will have their fair share of snow come February as Euro Ensembles are showing a classic west/east storm track.  It looks like a SE ridge will develop mid/late February which is an ideal set up for Lower Lake/OV Cutters.

 

 

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CFS continues with a brutal finish to February and beginning of March for much of the nation.  I think we are going to see a repeat to what happened last winter where the winter from February on just kept punishing central/eastern U.S. into Spring.

 

Just for fun, check out how much of the nation is projected to be covered by snow according to the CFS by the beginning of March!  Use this as a trend...

 

 

 

 

 

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Here's something interesting to see by the end of February...with all this moisture and with the cold from the post above, will we have some big time storms????

Man I sure hope so. Plowing has been slow here in SE Nebraska. Only had all the equipment out once this year. Otherwise we have had only 1 or 2 trucks out at a time, while the other 4 pieces of equipment sit. Hoping we can turn this trend we are in right now. Glad to see you guys are getting the moisture north and west of us. I know many people are frustrated, as well as me but if we could get at least another 1-2 more snows this year I would be ok with that. It will be interested to see what these models show in the next couple of weeks. BTW thanks for all of the updates Tom. I always like to hear what you have to say, as you have tons of great info.

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Indeed, I think I mentioned to you that around Week 3 and beyond Euro has been having a terrible time this winter.  As we get closer in time, the model corrects itself.  I'm telling ya, this winter is gonna be a long ride into Spring.  If blocking develops (which is looking more evident in Feb), it will be the hand off teleconnections wise for the Lower 48 instead of residing on the EPO/WPO.  Feb and Mar are the snowiest months on average in the Midwest so exciting times are just beginning and the LRC will become active very soon.

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Indeed, I think I mentioned to you that around Week 3 and beyond Euro has been having a terrible time this winter.  As we get closer in time, the model corrects itself.  I'm telling ya, this winter is gonna be a long ride into Spring.  If blocking develops (which is looking more evident in Feb), it will be the hand off teleconnections wise for the Lower 48 instead of residing on the EPO/WPO.  Feb and Mar are the snowiest months on average in the Midwest so exciting times are just beginning and the LRC will become active very soon.

You did indeed tell me that, because I remember seeing how warm it was showing. I mean, it was WARM. Not we're looking at some pretty good digging through most of the run. Crazy how much it changed. I really hope things get active. I have been wanting a CO Low all winter, we need some widespread big snow totals. Or at least a panhandle hooker that has lots of cold and moisture.

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Weeklies are looking good toward early-mid February. Potential for cross-polar flow toward mid Feb. I like that SE ridge, although the Euro Weeklies have tried to elongate the Azores-Bermuda ridge into the SE US on several occasions when it hasn't panned out.

Last gasp of winter 2013-14...if this fails to materialize I think we can stick a fork in it as far as lowland snow/cold. March could still deliver a borderline weak event but not the kind that sticks around for a few days and closes schools etc.

 

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Where are you from IbrChris???  Euro weeklies beyond Week 3 are hard to digest.  The map above you posted is def nice to see a SE ridge, but remember, we don't live at 500mb and the tendency for the model to hold back the trough in the west is its downside.  Joe Bastardi has shown many examples of a SE ridge being projected by some models in the past and the cold this winter would press enough SE to suppress the SE ridge for cold to win out in the Midwest/OV and create a favorable storm track around these parts.

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Where are you from IbrChris???  Euro weeklies beyond Week 3 are hard to digest.  The map above you posted is def nice to see a SE ridge, but remember, we don't live at 500mb and the tendency for the model to hold back the trough in the west is its downside.  Joe Bastardi has shown many examples of a SE ridge being projected by some models in the past and the cold this winter would press enough SE to suppress the SE ridge for cold to win out in the Midwest/OV and create a favorable storm track around these parts.

 

Oregon at the moment. I agree, the eastern troughing has been the persistent theme since about mid December and I am also skeptical that the SE ridge develops, although the ridge shifting back to ~160 W should help focus the cold a bit further W, assuming it occurs. The ridge as shown would need to amplify more to drive the cold down west of the Rockies, as it stands here this would mainly support cold from the divide to about MN/Dakotas with more ephemeral effects further E. The highly anomalous NE Pac/AK blocks have largely controlled the position of the mean trough downstream. Take away the block and you'd see a lot more zonal flow across the lower 48 and a much milder pattern in general. This becomes more obvious when you look at the entire NH longwave pattern, NE Pac ridge is the initial perturbation, then downstream you have longwaves of generally decreasing amplitude until and unless there is a new feature that serves to perturb the 500 mb pattern (usually some sort of high-latitude block). Stronger waves crest and beat down the NE Pac ridge which then rebounds in their wake, often a bit further W than previously. Around New Years a strong trough developed over the Bering Sea/Alaska in response to ridging popping over Siberia. That Bering trough then translated east and was absorbed into the PV over Hudson Bay, lobes of which have been far enough S to deliver arctic air into the OH valley and SE US as well as the more usual locations.

 

Yes I realize we don't live at 500 mb.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Regarding the 500mb comment, I know that you know we don't live at 500mb...just commenting on the fact that temps this winter have ended up being colder even thought the 500mb pattern showing above normal height anomalies along the east coast.

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CFS has trended further NW with the Feb cold anomalies...at the surface. It keeps a suppressed ridge over the interior west and the mean 500 mb trough oriented roughly SW-NE across western Canada and off the W coast. This sol of course brings the precip back to the west coast (including Cali) strongly, with 5+" monthly precip anomalies across SW OR/NW CA. I consider the CFS less trustworthy than the ECMWF Weekly product, CFS puts too much weight on the 11-15 day solutions offered by the GFS+ensembles when forecasting the month in advance, a pretty fatal flaw IMO. This results in intense flip-flopping in the lead-up to the month. I saw 180 degree swings in the thinking of the CFS from runs within about a week of each other back in Nov (for Dec 2013). Weeklies have much better run-to-run continuity and have verified better in the week 2+ timeframe than CFS.

 

 

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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CFS has trended further NW with the Feb cold anomalies...at the surface. It keeps a suppressed ridge over the interior west and the mean 500 mb trough oriented roughly SW-NE across western Canada and off the W coast. This sol of course brings the precip back to the west coast (including Cali) strongly, with 5+" monthly precip anomalies across SW OR/NW CA. I consider the CFS less trustworthy than the ECMWF Weekly product, CFS puts too much weight on the 11-15 day solutions offered by the GFS+ensembles when forecasting the month in advance, a pretty fatal flaw IMO. This results in intense flip-flopping in the lead-up to the month. I saw 180 degree swings in the thinking of the CFS from runs within about a week of each other back in Nov (for Dec 2013). Weeklies have much better run-to-run continuity and have verified better in the week 2+ timeframe than CFS.

 

http://oi44.tinypic.com/s2cl1e.jpg

 

http://oi40.tinypic.com/5lpf8m.jpg

 

I agree on the CFS flip flopping.  Its so bad that I rarely pay attention to it anymore. 

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I would venture to guess that the CFS is over doing the cold signals and the EURO is more in line things. I believe February will host a different pattern than what we've been seeing this winter. I believe there will still be cold areas of the country, but that those areas will shift and not be as severe. I think the country as a whole will see a wetter month come February. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.0", 01/12

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The CFS continues its cold February look.

 

 

The Euro weeklies indicate that February will be much more active for the Western U.S.

 

Hour 216 shows the persistent ridge vacating. 

 

 

By February 3rd it shows this:

 

 

Feb 12th:

 

 

Feb 16th:

 

 

All in all things are looking better for rainfall/snowpack in the next month.

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Those ensemble maps above would suggest quite a bit of positive anomalies in the East. More than what the CFS is showing.

 

Definitely a -PNA present

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.0", 01/12

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Those ensemble maps above would suggest quite a bit of positive anomalies in the East. More than what the CFS is showing.

 

Definitely a -PNA present

Yup. You can see the -PNA starting to take shape with the trough developing along the west coast and more of a SE ridge developing. It definitely appears that is the way we're heading sometime in the beginning of February..

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CFS continues with a brutal February for much of the nation.  I does temper the west coast ridge for the 1st week or so in February, but then the ridge appears once again and in return reloads the cold in the central/eastern CONUS.  It even has it deeply cold in the center of the nation into the 1st week of March!

 

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ECMWF Ensemble 11-15 day composite 500 mb anomalies suggest a brief backdoor intrusion of cold into the interior west, however the mean trough over the east tends to make me think it will be quite transitory unless a decent block materializes near 160 W. As is the arctic air should translate east quickly and be mainly a Rockies eastward event.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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ECMWF Ensemble 11-15 day composite 500 mb anomalies suggest a brief backdoor intrusion of cold into the interior west, however the mean trough over the east tends to make me think it will be quite transitory unless a decent block materializes near 160 W. As is the arctic air should translate east quickly and be mainly a Rockies eastward event.

I dunno. A lot of models are showing the cold digging rather sharply into the NW in early Feb. We shall see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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I dunno. A lot of models are showing the cold digging rather sharply into the NW in early Feb. We shall see.

 

My guess would be up to a week of general -5 to -7F sfc temp anomalies across the PNW corresponding to a 2000-3000' snow level with weak systems in NW flow. In other words highs generally 40-45. Neither the Euro or GFS ensemble mean are indicative of 850 mb temps below -4 or -5c.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Interesting run after run blocking over the top showing up in March...this could be a never ending winter from the Rockies east.

 

-EPO ridge returns...CFSv2 has been showing it for the past 30 days of runs. If it's broad and lower amplitude, east gets cold. If it's more amplified, west/central US is the focal point. I wouldn't write off winter for anywhere in the lower 48 yet, besides perhaps southern California.

 

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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